The Great Discord ?

[Belschaft]

So, in terms of “The Cold War” I think the key element was that the creation of two new GCR’s (Balder & Osiris) led to a new generation of players moving from primarily R/D focused regions/groups and acting as a disruptive force in what had been a relatively stable and inactive part of the game. In 2011 TRR was the only GCR with a military engaging in R/D, and the Rejected Realms Army (RRA) was automatous and pretty much 100% FRA rangers; by the end of 2012 all the GCR’s had militaries of varying activity. I think the fact that R/D was viewed as stale and boring for a lot of people at this time also helped with the migration of players from it to the GCR’s, where stuff was happening and things seemed excitied.

By the end of “The Great Revival” this younger generation of players had essentially replaced the existing generation of GCR leaders, and they were far more interested in alliance building, military GP and projecting influence. The relatively optimistic start that Balder and Osiris both had in 2011 & 2012 ended as hierarchies and ruling factions established themselves, with Empire players & UDL members concentrating in Osiris and Europieans & Imperialists in Balder. At the same time you had a younger generation of NPO members who, with Krulltopia largely asleep at the wheel in The Pacific, started their own expansionist foreign policy projects as part of jockeying to be the new Emperor when he stood down.

Put this all together, and you have a big mess of ambitious players running GCR’s and competing for prestige & influence in NSGP. A lot of the alliance & coalition building that went on stemmed from that, and the various GCR’s became antagonistic rather than collaborative. Defenders and Imperialists were actively fighting for influence and to spread their alignment in the GCR’s, with the Imperialists being more successful at this.

Asta made this alliance web map in 2014 showing the level of alliance building, and how it was very clearly dividing the GCR’s into two antagonistic blocks;


(Sorry for the bottom being cut-off, I had to recover it from Photobucket)

I’m not really sure exactly when the Cold War ended and the Great Discord began, as the Cold War didn’t so much “end” as peter out. UDL and FRA both ended up closing shop, the Imperialist sphere shrunk, and NPO repeatedly shot itself in the foot every time one of it’s senators couped another GCR. At the same time R/D was actually becoming an interesting and fun place again, with the Predator Scandal leading to a better bunch of raiders coming to the fore and The Grey Wardens coming into existence. And during this same time period your seeing the existing blocks and alliances webs falling apart and changing, and a lot of the “ideological” elements of the conflict in the GCR’s vanish.

I would definitely include Hileville’s coup in the Cold War, as the underlying causes of that were 100% Cold War related - it was essentially a dispute between an Independent Cabinet & a Defender admin team who didn’t like or trust each other. In the aftermath of that we’ve gone into something of an “Era of Good Feelings” in TSP, and for us I’d say that is the clear break point between the two periods.

At the same time I think Predator was definitely one of the first big events of the Great Discord, as that level of disruption that caused really was a big gameplay altering event and certainly had a massive effect on R/D actually becoming a meaningful thing again.

So I’d say 2017 was when the Cold War ended and the Great Discord began. I think it’s far too early to say whether or not it’s over though.

[Unibot III]

I would definitely include Hileville’s coup in the Cold War, as the underlying causes of that were 100% Cold War related - it was essentially a dispute between an Independent Cabinet & a Defender admin team who didn’t like or trust each other. In the aftermath of that we’ve gone into something of an “Era of Good Feelings” in TSP, and for us I’d say that is the clear break point between the two periods.

I definitely agree that Hileville's coup was a product of the Cold War, in fact I think it was one of the last hurrahs of the Cold War. I was just chatting about that to someone! I'll note though that Hileville's coup was January 31 2016 not 2017. So the timeline of ending the Cold War roughly at the beginning of 2016 makes sense to me. The coup meant a 'clean' break from the politics of the Cold War in TSP. 2016 marked a new beginning.

I agree with the rest of your analysis and I like the network graph, someone should save that in a stable archive for posterity.

Neither 10KI nor TGW are mentioned, yet UDL has yet to escape any opportunity to be touted as one of the most important GP developments in NS history by Unibot. The FRA must be pleased to be achieve the status as a footnote in history, even if its mostly as the predecessor to the UDL.

I didn't list TGW?? I intended to!! Sorry, I must have deleted it when moving the subtitles around.

I was going to include TGW as a major institution in the Great Discord. I think it rose to prominence as a post-Cold War force.

10KI I find hard to cite because it formed in antiquity but it wasn't a "major" player on the GP scene until later, and when it was at the height of its organizational strength it abstained from GP politics. I'm not excluding it from the list, I just find 10KI defies an easy categorization in terms of time and place. I'm happy to take suggestions.

I'm not so sure I'd say weaker. I think everyone on both sides just got bored of the whole thing after so long. However I am rather surprised that the FRA/UIAF war wasn't specifically mentioned. It was a huge part of GP during that time.

No, they got weaker. It was more than boredom.

So, I agree with a lot of Onder's analysis: I didn't include the decline of defending in terms of operationality because I just honestly don't know what to list. There weren't core events that stick out in my mind at least; it was this slow, silent bleed of operationality. I think boredom was a factor - burned out defenders have to be placed with new recruits, it's a constant cycle.

The Franco-Defender alliance of the Cold War was not much of an 'alliance' per se. Nothing was written down or agreed to, it was a working relationship that ceased after the NLO coup. The most practical impact of the NLO coup for defending was that a very active (perhaps the most active) defending army of its day, the LLA, was decommissioned.

I'd replace Pacifica with St Abbaddon, honestly.

As an individual event that makes sense, but I'm not sure St Abbaddon really qualifies either - in that the region itself didn't matter nearly so much as what it represented & started.

I'll just replace it with the "St Abbaddon crisis."

Also puzzled about the non-inclusion of the NPO stuff from the end of 2018, given the actual ongoing impact of that and all (and pretty darn matching to your identified theme).

I have no idea what you're referencing, I'm old and retired and slowly morphing into "The Bruce." (Is there anyone around who even gets that joke??)

My assumption is you're talking about the leaks regarding Feux/AMOM et. al.? I included that and people said take it out?

Thanks for reading my predictions XD I was bored

Yours and others' predictions were what I was interesting in hearing and was hoping this thread might spur. I do think though that if voids are created, they're often filled. The Great Revival was like this generational sweep of the GCRs, as Belschaft said. You suddenly had all these new players running GCRs. In part because the GCRs had fallen so inactive that by that point they were shells that you can fill.

[Unibot III]

Late 2019 + might be considered "The Era of Stability". It seems that most of the CGRs and larger UCRs are very stable. Everyone is forming mutual protection/alliance treaties with each other and nobody rocks the boat. When they do, the big regions come together to squash it (i.e. TEP and to a lesser extent TNP/Lazarus). The majority of decent Gameplayers seem happy in their regional cocoons with intra-regional events as mixers. Everyone is on the same side (mostly). Kinda boring if you ask me.

The Great Accord...?

[Ndaku]

You can probably call it the Discordic Era/Period?

[Marxist Germany]

Looks like I joined the game at a "boring" time, welp.

[Lord Dominator]

As an individual event that makes sense, but I'm not sure St Abbaddon really qualifies either - in that the region itself didn't matter nearly so much as what it represented & started.

I'll just replace it with the "St Abbaddon crisis."

Fairer

Also puzzled about the non-inclusion of the NPO stuff from the end of 2018, given the actual ongoing impact of that and all (and pretty darn matching to your identified theme).

I have no idea what you're referencing, I'm old and retired and slowly morphing into "The Bruce." (Is there anyone around who even gets that joke??)

My assumption is you're talking about the leaks regarding Feux/AMOM et. al.? I included that and people said take it out?

I am to an extent, but having solely Adytus mentioned is an underrepresentation of the events. In essence, the full impact was that leaks revealed that NPO leadership had been aware for months that Feux/AMOM/others were Adytus/Wrektopia/others who had infiltrated Osiris presumably to coup, and that the NPO had deliberately exacerbated issues in Lazarus related to the start of the Civil War there. The immediate impact of these leaks was that nearly every Gameplay region condemned them (plus a shoddy SC one), every treaty they had was dissolved except the one with TEP, and 3 major regions (Lazarus, Osiris, Europeia declared war). And to my recollection, these events were directly linked to the St Abby crisis above, in that the instigating bit for the leaks was that invasion and pile-off.

To whit, the timeline as I remember it:

1. St Abby invasion & pile-off
2. Koth figures put or is leaked (can't recall) that Feux/AMOM/others were Adytus/Wrek/others in Osiris and then Lazarus.
3. Someone leaks Task Force Lazarus logs to Cormac (and Souls I believe).
4. Cormac writes Miniluv articles on said logs, revealing the aforementioned non-telling of the Feux/etc identities & the deliberate attempts to exacerbate the situation in Lazarus prior to the Civil War (also that Pergamon was aware of Block being in TBH for a time).
5. Condemnation of NPO, every treaty except the TEP one dissolved, and war declarations (also the APC).

That is why I view it as one giant event and view St Abby as largely irrelevant to those events.

[Wabbitslayah]

To whit, the timeline as I remember it:

1. St Abby invasion & pile-off
2. Koth figures put or is leaked (can't recall) that Feux/AMOM/others were Adytus/Wrek/others in Osiris and then Lazarus.
3. Someone leaks Task Force Lazarus logs to Cormac (and Souls I believe).
4. Cormac writes Miniluv articles on said logs, revealing the aforementioned non-telling of the Feux/etc identities & the deliberate attempts to exacerbate the situation in Lazarus prior to the Civil War (also that Pergamon was aware of Block being in TBH for a time).
5. Condemnation of NPO, every treaty except the TEP one dissolved, and war declarations (also the APC).

That is why I view it as one giant event and view St Abby as largely irrelevant to those events.

I think Topid started this all. Regardless of what happened later. As for 2, it was Block who leaked this to Cormac iirc.
I doubt any of this would have gone down the same way if Topid was not in the picture, only if Block had still chosen to leak. If Block hadn't ever leaked anything, then it would have been a less major event and just over St Abbey.

[Unibot III]

I am to an extent, but having solely Adytus mentioned is an underrepresentation of the events. In essence, the full impact was that leaks revealed that NPO leadership had been aware for months that Feux/AMOM/others were Adytus/Wrektopia/others who had infiltrated Osiris presumably to coup, and that the NPO had deliberately exacerbated issues in Lazarus related to the start of the Civil War there. The immediate impact of these leaks was that nearly every Gameplay region condemned them (plus a shoddy SC one), every treaty they had was dissolved except the one with TEP, and 3 major regions (Lazarus, Osiris, Europeia declared war). And to my recollection, these events were directly linked to the St Abby crisis above, in that the instigating bit for the leaks was that invasion and pile-off.

To whit, the timeline as I remember it:

1. St Abby invasion & pile-off
2. Koth figures put or is leaked (can't recall) that Feux/AMOM/others were Adytus/Wrek/others in Osiris and then Lazarus.
3. Someone leaks Task Force Lazarus logs to Cormac (and Souls I believe).
4. Cormac writes Miniluv articles on said logs, revealing the aforementioned non-telling of the Feux/etc identities & the deliberate attempts to exacerbate the situation in Lazarus prior to the Civil War (also that Pergamon was aware of Block being in TBH for a time).
5. Condemnation of NPO, every treaty except the TEP one dissolved, and war declarations (also the APC).

Okay that's what I thought was being referenced. How would I refer this succinctly? The Adytus Leaks?

[Lord Dominator]

To whit, the timeline as I remember it:

1. St Abby invasion & pile-off
2. Koth figures put or is leaked (can't recall) that Feux/AMOM/others were Adytus/Wrek/others in Osiris and then Lazarus.
3. Someone leaks Task Force Lazarus logs to Cormac (and Souls I believe).
4. Cormac writes Miniluv articles on said logs, revealing the aforementioned non-telling of the Feux/etc identities & the deliberate attempts to exacerbate the situation in Lazarus prior to the Civil War (also that Pergamon was aware of Block being in TBH for a time).
5. Condemnation of NPO, every treaty except the TEP one dissolved, and war declarations (also the APC).

That is why I view it as one giant event and view St Abby as largely irrelevant to those events.

I think Topid started this all. Regardless of what happened later. As for 2, it was Block who leaked this to Cormac iirc.
I doubt any of this would have gone down the same way if Topid was not in the picture, only if Block had still chosen to leak. If Block hadn't ever leaked anything, then it would have been a less major event and just over St Abbey.

Topid started all of St Abby a year or two beforehand, yes.

Okay that's what I thought was being referenced. How would I refer this succinctly? The Adytus Leaks?

I did like the "Francoism's Downfall" idea, though that has issues of supposedly happening before. Usually we refer to it as the "Task Force Lazarus" leaks though, since that's the bulk of the big important things.

[Bormiar]

Shouldn't TCO / Neutral Territory go somewhere in the Great Decline or Great Revival?

[Wabbitslayah]

I think Topid started this all. Regardless of what happened later. As for 2, it was Block who leaked this to Cormac iirc.
I doubt any of this would have gone down the same way if Topid was not in the picture, only if Block had still chosen to leak. If Block hadn't ever leaked anything, then it would have been a less major event and just over St Abbey.

Topid started all of St Abby a year or two beforehand, yes.

So you're saying St. Abby happened a year or two before Block's leaks?

yea nah

[Lord Dominator]

Topid started all of St Abby a year or two beforehand, yes.

So you're saying St. Abby happened a year or two before Block's leaks?

yea nah

Uh yes, there was very much a St Abby thing a year or two previously, from which Topid ended up banned from the region (and why TBH later chose to work with him).

[Benevolent Thomas]

Guess you could factor in 10000 Islands as part of The Great Revival as the region was really gaining traction toward the end of the Decline and truly had its golden era throughout the entirety of the Revival era. 10KI, in my opinion, suffered through in The Cold War era.

Another thing to examine is where does Euro fit into all of this? Did their growth and influence rise in a different era or does it mirror 10KI's blossoming? Was there a golden era of UCRs and does it mirror any of the ages in this proposed model?

[Unibot III]

Guess you could factor in 10000 Islands as part of The Great Revival as the region was really gaining traction toward the end of the Decline and truly had its golden era throughout the entirety of the Revival era. 10KI, in my opinion, suffered through in The Cold War era.

Another thing to examine is where does Euro fit into all of this? Did their growth and influence rise in a different era or does it mirror 10KI's blossoming? Was there a golden era of UCRs and does it mirror any of the ages in this proposed model?

I would imagine regions that have been active mainstays of NS will have evolved with each era. The 10KI of the Great War was different, in a way, from the 10KI of the Great Revival.

I know I’ve heard Europeians refer to the Great Revival as a “Golden Age” for Europeia.

[Wabbitslayah]

So you're saying St. Abby happened a year or two before Block's leaks?

yea nah

Uh yes, there was very much a St Abby thing a year or two previously, from which Topid ended up banned from the region (and why TBH later chose to work with him).

No, no. There may have been circumstances previously that would later be related, what I am saying is that Topid coming back from inactivity to pursue a vendetta is what was the catalyst for the initial conflict.

[Lord Dominator]

Uh yes, there was very much a St Abby thing a year or two previously, from which Topid ended up banned from the region (and why TBH later chose to work with him).

No, no. There may have been circumstances previously that would later be related, what I am saying is that Topid coming back from inactivity to pursue a vendetta is what was the catalyst for the initial conflict.

That is also fair, I misunderstood your point in that instance

[Holy Roman Empires2]

This is very accurate, it is a standard that is strictly upheld in ns nowadays. When I created my region (still going strong!), I thought the RMB was enough. I thought that only some regions had discord servers (I was in like 3 regions, counting the Pacific region). My region grew, and other founders I knew, and my region mates were baffled that I did not create a discord server.

On a note, I've had discord for a long time, but never really used it until when I made my regional discord server.

[Revall]

pretty cool. I would expect the black hawks to have a mention as one of the most influential raider groups overall but esp after the void created by the demise of TBR I'd say its them who brought "honor" back to raiding so to speak. also reports of the death of invader/defender gameplay have been greatly exaggerated but actually not its been pretty dead. . .for awhile now. . .and call me cynical but it doesn't seem like it will be back.

[Unibot III]

pretty cool. I would expect the black hawks to have a mention as one of the most influential raider groups overall but esp after the void created by the demise of TBR I'd say its them who brought "honor" back to raiding so to speak. also reports of the death of invader/defender gameplay have been greatly exaggerated but actually not its been pretty dead. . .for awhile now. . .and call me cynical but it doesn't seem like it will be back.

I don’t disagree, although I will add that TBH has evolved with the times — Jakker was a leading invader and political personality during the Cold War, and Souls filled the same niche during the Great Discord. I don’t remember TBH being as active as it is now when I joined defending in ‘09-10.

[USS Merrimack]

Looks like I joined the game at a "boring" time, welp.

It's up to you to shake it up.

Newer players don't think they have the power to affect change. They do. All of them do. It's up to them to execute upon their vision.

I've spoken on the need for this game to have a Napoleon, someone with a chip on their shoulder and willingness to rock the boat. One of these newer players could be the one to rock the boat.

[Charax]

Am I right in reading into this that the current NSGP meta is, if not exactly dead, then quite low-key? I remember the 2012-14 period being fairly hectic.

[Greatest-Russia]

Don't forget the CCD thing with the Great Discord

[Lord Dominator]

Don't forget the CCD thing with the Great Discord

OOC junk and fascists are quite reasonably excluded from history of important things, except as targets. That, and CCD provided more of an event for popcorn rather than anything much for particpaition.

[Marxist Germany]

Looks like I joined the game at a "boring" time, welp.

It's up to you to shake it up.

Newer players don't think they have the power to affect change. They do. All of them do. It's up to them to execute upon their vision.

I've spoken on the need for this game to have a Napoleon, someone with a chip on their shoulder and willingness to rock the boat. One of these newer players could be the one to rock the boat.

But I like the status quo!

[Unibot III]

Am I right in reading into this that the current NSGP meta is, if not exactly dead, then quite low-key? I remember the 2012-14 period being fairly hectic.

I've certainly made a similar charge, but for the purposes of this analysis I'm just asserting that GP politics has evolved away from the hyper-aggressiveness of the Cold War. Perhaps players are just using this time to consolidate gains and seize up the losses from the Cold War?

In 2017, I asked players to categorize GCRs based on their alignment. The answers were... TSP, TRR = Defender; TNP, Balder = Independent; Osiris, TWP = Raider; TEP, NPO = Unaligned; Lazarus = Neutral/Invader/Defender/Contested. Nothing really has changed except in Lazarus where the civil war concluded. We're back to where we started in TEP. The end of the Great Discord looks remarkably similar to the end of the Cold War in terms of geopolitical development.