I have the great embarrassment to quote my first NS essay from 2009 where I predicted NS would be dead in 2016. And we still don't have regional issues.
I greatly exaggerated the working speed of the administrators - the big R/D Conference in 2012 threatened to rip apart Gameplay like Regional Influence did, as I predicted - but it's not like much has been implemented from it.
Predicting the Future of NationStates
Using this model, I can lay out a prediction of the future. The Theseus generation will convince other significant members of the generational landslide that a course of action needs to be taken to combat the Great Decline. Consider this time an epic battle of ideologies, generational rivalries, and a rebirth of social institutions. Older, wiser and well respected members of NationStates will awake from their pedestals, and feel compelled to help the cause. The Lotophagi will be hesitant of such changes, and for the most part let the crisis be averted by others. Not out of ignorant lethargy, but out of social apathy and a love for a system they don’t understand fully, or truly know. This hesitation is a logical one, the last time the system was changed it led to the Great Decline (regional influence). Zelus and Proteus generations may have a hard time distinguishing the movement behind these changes from the ones that brought forth the initial awakening. In the coming months, systems will be revamped, or scrapped and replaced with something more efficient.
The Theseuses will carve their way into NationStates history with new social institutions and game mechanics that bring about a NationStates revival. There is a relative calmness for a while, the Raleigh generation emerges. Their populace is a homogeneous one, which partakes in only a few different demographics, silent and forgettable. But their existence is welcomed by the Theseuses who had worked hard to see such arrivals and new blood. Ralieghs will find themselves befriended and taught by Lotophagies, who are as lost in this new and brave face of NationStates as the newborns. Their doctrine of stability, knowledge and authority will drive the Ralieghs to enforce strict new social rules in their prevalent years. In the coming months of mid 2010, the young and fresh Alaric generation will materialize. With their arrival marks a new age of imagination which helps to expand on the world forged by the Theseuses and the Ralieghs, but also instigates a huge change to the game’s mechanics. Around 2012, a magnificent alteration to the game will carry a huge price, as Alaricods and Ralieghs argue over its creation, popular institutions will become outdated with the changes. Creativity and populace will decline once again, worse than in the original great decline. Imagine NationStates falling like Rome. The Zhuangzi generation will slowly fill NationStates hollowed halls, echoing generations before it, as they attempt to put the pieces back together like a gigantic puzzle. The Alaricods and the Ralieghs will drop out of attendance with the fruitless attempts of the Zhuangzi to put back together its troubled world. NationStates will die a slow lingering death and will never reach its cyclic heroes, the Croatoan generation scheduled to arrive in early 2016.
One has to remember that NationStates will be very different in 2016. There will be a few distinctive demographics, and many failed projects. New features such as Regional Issues, and a glorious new systems for delegacy will be abroad. Predicting NationStates in six years is about the equivalent of guessing what Earth will look like in 110 years. Also one has to consider the possibility that the Internet will change, in six years, a lot of technological progresses can happen, as well as a possible NS3 sequel (shudder...) that could drain the Croatoan populace's attention from NS1.
I'm glad I was wrong about this one. Cheers. And huzzah!