Sandaoguo wrote:Solorni wrote:It's actually a legit real life criteria:
Wikipedia:
From the "Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010 A new dataset". Journal of Peace Research
I'm putting my actually-has-a-degree-in-this-field hat on. Caveats:
1. Most researchers would use Polity IV, which has a one month requirement for successful coups.
2. These coups are usually military or military-backed.
3. This is largely irrelevant, since coups in NS aren't based upon actual threats to the life of political leaders. There's no incentive to not fight against a coup in NS.
I would posit the following test for whether a coup in NS is successful:
1. Have the coup perpetrators installed a delegate that cannot be removed by a counter-coup operation, and has enough influence to remove counter-coup operatives?
2. Has the post-coup region developed a government or community installed by the coup-ers, and is that community basically entrenched and active?
I'm going to put my has-a-degree-in-this-field hat on and simply quote Rocky Balboa in saying "ain't nothing's over 'til it's over." Don't expect a fight to end the way Round One goes; these things are about stamina. That's what makes the vitality of militant idealists hard to overestimate.