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by Arkolon
Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:04 pm
 
Forum: General
Topic: Left-Wing Discussion Thread III
Replies: 12379
Views: 197153

To make a solemn declaration or vow - like declaring that you're not going to defend your argument. I am not going to defend against unfalsifiable accusations. Nor am I going to defend the statement that people would sing and have community dances much, much more without automated music. The nature...
by Arkolon
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:20 pm
 
Forum: General
Topic: UK Politics Thread VII: Wake me DUP inside [can't wake UUP]
Replies: 12503
Views: 268907

It might be worth saying that falling saving rates are not important in themselves unless they translate to an excess of consumer debt over consumer savings – which is the case in the UK. Issuance of consumer debt has plateaued since the beginning of 2016. More so, the trailing 4-month average is t...
by Arkolon
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:18 pm
 
Forum: General
Topic: UK Politics Thread VII: Wake me DUP inside [can't wake UUP]
Replies: 12503
Views: 268907

It might be worth saying that falling saving rates are not important in themselves unless they translate to an excess of consumer debt over consumer savings – which is the case in the UK. If GDP growth, in the form of 'recovery' or 'better-than-expected performance' is based on rising debt, there is...
by Arkolon
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:19 am
 
Forum: General
Topic: UK Politics Thread VII: Wake me DUP inside [can't wake UUP]
Replies: 12503
Views: 268907

the point is that it doesn't matter if exports of art or yachts are up if our food costs 25% more - even if exports were going up at a consistent rate, which they aren't, it still has a large negative effect arkolon pretty much already said this much better than i did Extremely unlikely to occur. I...
by Arkolon
Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:47 pm
 
Forum: General
Topic: UK Politics Thread VII: Wake me DUP inside [can't wake UUP]
Replies: 12503
Views: 268907

Britain, having a current account deficit, imports considerably more than it exports, and we can expect a fair amount of a British consumer's typical goods basket to have relatively inelastic demand, being composed of things like petrol or imported food. This is what's caused the above-target infla...
by Arkolon
Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:13 pm
 
Forum: General
Topic: UK Politics Thread VII: Wake me DUP inside [can't wake UUP]
Replies: 12503
Views: 268907

lol "suddenly" could it be because the value of our currency fell by 20-25% after brexit Yes, that's how macroeconomics works. A devaluation of a currency increases the competitiveness of your exports, hence why in economic downturns governments tend to devalue their currencies: to return...
by Arkolon
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:20 am
 
Forum: Arts & Fiction
Topic: Paradox Games VII: Vicky III - Vicky Meets The Blorg
Replies: 12433
Views: 226827

By the time you hit those limits, you are a major power. How do ya'll feel about no limits on vassal theocracies and republics? Vassal theocracies, especially vassal duchies, are insanely useful in maintaining a powerful realm, which makes me understand why they're limited. If a count-level vassal ...
by Arkolon
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:32 am
 
Forum: Arts & Fiction
Topic: Paradox Games VII: Vicky III - Vicky Meets The Blorg
Replies: 12433
Views: 226827

Started as Sorkhab Bavandid in 769 again, tried a different approach of taking the Theology focus and producing piety as fast as possible. Falsely converting to Islam proved useful at strategic intervals, but I had to act fast to form a Sultanate which the Caliph can't revoke - weirdly, the Caliph r...
by Arkolon
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:37 am
 
Forum: Arts & Fiction
Topic: Paradox Games VII: Vicky III - Vicky Meets The Blorg
Replies: 12433
Views: 226827

Started as Sorkhab Bavandid in 769, died of old age, son Shervin died stressed depressed and sick, and his son gets his titles revoked by the Caliph. Game abandoned.

rip saoshyant dreams
by Arkolon
Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:46 am
 
Forum: Archives
Topic: The Senate Lobby: Fake News Lives Here
Replies: 2491
Views: 73681

I support the idea of a scorinated election in principle but campaign funding is a hamfisted way to do it. An RP bonus along the lines of NS Sport would be fairer and promote activity in a broader fashion, since it wouldn't tie activity to specifically money-related posts. If campaign score is calc...
by Arkolon
Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:37 am
 
Forum: General
Topic: Left-Wing Discussion Thread III
Replies: 12379
Views: 197153

Northern Davincia wrote:
Democratic Communist Federation wrote:
What about buying food and paying rent?

Easy, you work for it.

>it is impossible to struggle to buy food or rent if you have a job
>it is easy to buy food and rent if you have a job
by Arkolon
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:45 am
 
Forum: Archives
Topic: The Senate Lobby: Fake News Lives Here
Replies: 2491
Views: 73681

The entire idea of a membership requirement is ridiculous and will solve no problems. Why should a group of 6 active people not be able to form a party, but a group of 3 active and 7 inactive people shouldn't? And if you're thinking of adding a requirement for activity, I can't think of any way in ...
by Arkolon
Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:04 am
 
Forum: Archives
Topic: The Senate Lobby: Fake News Lives Here
Replies: 2491
Views: 73681

I fear enforcing that rule will lead to larger numbers of people signing up as independents, further reducing activity because nobody whips them. An idea I've been floating around for a while is that we don't allow people to become independents. They either sign up with a party or make their own. A...
by Arkolon
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:47 am
 
Forum: General
Topic: Economics Discussion Thread
Replies: 1080
Views: 19501

Hi, doesn't that curve imply that 20% government size is the optimal government size for "private GDP" growth? Why the choice to use private GDP as opposed to actual GDP? Is the regression overall significant? "Actual GDP" is often misleading. A government could probably raise i...
by Arkolon
Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:52 pm
 
Forum: General
Topic: Economics Discussion Thread
Replies: 1080
Views: 19501

EPI's thesis is that the scissor is partially caused by the decoupling of productivity from wage; this would be big if true. Turns out it is not, it's a statistical artifact from using different deflators. The wage inequality is fundamentally a productivity inequality: a lot of workers are stuck in...
by Arkolon
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:47 am
 
Forum: General
Topic: Economics Discussion Thread
Replies: 1080
Views: 19501

First of all, you have this to reply to. It isn't a linear correlation and it isn't a polynomial correlation :eyebrow: it is very-weak-to-no correlation. For the 100th time, you can't simply expect a -20%, do you even understand how growth works? The coefficient of determination is so low that the t...
by Arkolon
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:24 am
 
Forum: General
Topic: Economics Discussion Thread
Replies: 1080
Views: 19501

You seem to be trying to convince him that a bigger government = less growth. He's been telling you that growth will seem to be less if government spending rises, and will seem to be more if it falls and that your 'correlation' on the graph is a consequence of these numbers and not any real kind of...
by Arkolon
Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:40 am
 
Forum: Archives
Topic: The Senate Lobby: Fake News Lives Here
Replies: 2491
Views: 73681

While this is a very interesting idea that I could be open to supporting, a campaign-fund idea ultimately serves no other purpose than to disconnect the head of state from the head of government. Larger parties effectively gaining a larger share of the vote in presidential elections can grant them ...
by Arkolon
Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:46 am
 
Forum: General
Topic: Economics Discussion Thread
Replies: 1080
Views: 19501

You have totally missed the point, I gave an example to show how a trend-line means nothing if the degree of correlation is very weak. Your polynomial line of best fit is too poor to treat the U-shaped curve as even remotely meaningful, for the reasons I have already outlined. Now let's be honest, ...
by Arkolon
Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:43 pm
 
Forum: General
Topic: Economics Discussion Thread
Replies: 1080
Views: 19501

Your notion of it is false since the trend curves itself on a "U". :-) I never argued for "the smaller the better". I said that US performed better under small(er) government, and I was right as you can see. :-) How is this statement not 'the smaller the better [GDP growth]'? &q...
by Arkolon
Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:04 pm
 
Forum: Archives
Topic: The Senate Lobby: Fake News Lives Here
Replies: 2491
Views: 73681

What if instead we just incentivized people to join larger parties by apportioning some currency to parties based on their membership? This currency could be spent as campaigning funds during a scorinator-type election for the presidency or something like that. Imagine Ryterrbus but with a purpose....
by Arkolon
Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:55 pm
 
Forum: Arts & Fiction
Topic: Paradox Games VII: Vicky III - Vicky Meets The Blorg
Replies: 12433
Views: 226827

What does the mod actually add apart from a much earlier start date and the appropriate characters of the time? Are there new event chains, traits, decisions or stuff like that? This mod really interests me, if not just for the early start date. New events, religions, cultures, decisions, some new ...
by Arkolon
Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:25 pm
 
Forum: Arts & Fiction
Topic: Paradox Games VII: Vicky III - Vicky Meets The Blorg
Replies: 12433
Views: 226827

So i ended up starting another WTWSMS game, this time in the kingdom of Glastenings in southern england. Did alright with my first king, took over cornwall and beat back the germanic invaders a bit, took some clay. Then i died of the flu, and my fourth child and son died two months later of the flu...
by Arkolon
Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:30 pm
 
Forum: General
Topic: Economics Discussion Thread
Replies: 1080
Views: 19501

If it grew slower than total GDP, the point is the same. GDP could grow by 6%, government could grow in size by 5%, the government's share of GDP still falls by about 1%. GDP could fall by 6%, government spending could fall by 5%, the government's share of GDP still increases by about 1%. The relat...
by Arkolon
Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:30 pm
 
Forum: General
Topic: Economics Discussion Thread
Replies: 1080
Views: 19501

This correlation indicates the very obvious phenomenon that growth in the private sector of the economy leads to government spending being smaller relative to the entire economy, and vice versa. Actually, nope. If you analyze the nominal public spending instead of proportional, you'll see it grew n...
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