[DEFEATED] Repeal "Condemn The Pacific"

[Pierconium]

I'm not so certain an immediate revote is the best course of action.

That said, as noted above and elsewhere in this thread, there are very limited examples of the lemming effect being overcome and the exception should not make the rule.

No one is claiming that people can't make informed decisions, just that in many instances people don't care about the specifics of the vote and do just vote with the majority. This is well documented. Continuing to spout ad nauseum about how I am somehow mischaracterising individual voters is a disingenuous argument and not supported.

The fact that those speaking against this truth can only cite one or two examples makes the point. It happens regularly for a reason. Many people can't be bothered to take the time to research all the facts of a given situation and just go with the winning side, especially if the early vote gathers a sizeable proportion of the large delegate votes.

It isn't an excuse because, quite frankly, I don't need one. The failure of this repeal probably benefited me more than its passing would have if I'm honest. I noted my reasons for that opinion above.

[Sciongrad]

No one is claiming that people can't make informed decisions, just that in many instances people don't care about the specifics of the vote and do just vote with the majority.

The idea that nations can and do make informed, deliberate decisions and the idea that most nations mindlessly vote according to the initial stacks are incompatible. Claiming your region's condemnation (which passed by one of the highest margins of any resolution ever) was not repealed because of the "lemming effect" is not grounded in evidence. Relentlessly appealing to the lemming effect not only diminishes the agency of individual voters but ignores how they actually behave. As I have stated before (and as I'll state again), you're overestimating the strength of the "lemming effect."

Continuing to spout ad nauseum about how I am somehow mischaracterising individual voters is a disingenuous argument and not supported. The fact that those speaking against this truth can only cite one or two examples makes the point. It happens regularly for a reason.

You are mischaracterizing individual voters. You are claiming that the average voter always votes according to the whims of the large delegates when that is demonstrably false. Two of my resolutions personally overcame the initial delegate stack against them and one of them lost despite an 800+ vote stack in favor immediately at the major update - and that's just on this nation. There are countless examples of resolutions defying the "lemming effect" and claiming that they are rare exceptions is demonstrably false. No one is claiming, by the way, that the lemming effect doesn't exist. Of course there are nations that simply vote according to which side is already winning, that's never been in question. I would agree with you that most resolutions pass or fail according to the initial stacks. However, you are overstating the effect of a phenomenon that is overcome on a regular basis, presumably to evacuate responsibility for the failure of the repeal from your region to others.

Many people can't be bothered to take the time to research all the facts of a given situation and just go with the winning side, especially if the early vote gathers a sizeable proportion of the large delegate votes.

I would wager nobody in this thread (and probably very few players ever) have sent as many resolutions to vote as me. I have personally experienced the so-called "lemming effect" perhaps two dozen times. TNP regularly initially stacks in my favor due to a treaty obligation and our region's historic ties. And still, my resolutions fail regularly. The most recent resolution at vote, GAR#369, overcame a 1000+ vote stack against. There are countless examples of the "lemming effect" being overcome. You are making arguments without any evidence.

Full disclosure: I have no opinion on this repeal and voted according to my region's wishes. I'm simply pointing out that your rationale for its failure is potentially exaggerated.

[Imperium Anglorum]

The most recent resolution, GAR#369, overcame a 1000+ vote stack against. There are countless examples of the "lemming effect" being overcome. You are making arguments without any evidence.

This does not escape the fact that the majority of the time, the lemming effect is something that is very relevant. Furthermore, the only real way that effect can be overcome is by something like the 369 GA, which capitalised on the left-leaning nature of the majority of NationStates.

[Sciongrad]

The most recent resolution, GAR#369, overcame a 1000+ vote stack against. There are countless examples of the "lemming effect" being overcome. You are making arguments without any evidence.

This does not escape the fact that the majority of the time, the lemming effect is something that is very relevant. Furthermore, the only real way that effect can be overcome is by something like the 369 GA, which capitalised on the left-leaning nature of the majority of NationStates.

The so-called "left-leaning" majority is very sporadic in their activity, then, because there was no collective effort to pass basic legal rights. But I digress. Even if your observation is correct, it still demonstrates that individual players have agency and vote according to their own opinions and thoughts on proposals.

[Imperium Anglorum]

This does not escape the fact that the majority of the time, the lemming effect is something that is very relevant. Furthermore, the only real way that effect can be overcome is by something like the 369 GA, which capitalised on the left-leaning nature of the majority of NationStates.

The so-called "left-leaning" majority is very sporadic in their activity, then, because there was no collective effort to pass basic legal rights. But I digress. Even if your observation is correct, it still demonstrates that individual players have agency and vote according to their own opinions and thoughts on proposals.

Most people don't care about legal rights. There isn't much real world discourse about them (though, if you tried to pass a voting rights act...). However, there is lots of discourse about abstainence-only education and what-not, so people are familiar with the topic.

[Pierconium]

Sciongrad, you seem to be missing the point, possibly intentionally regardless of stated disclaimers.

You are able to point to one instance of an early stack being overcome. The exception does not make the rule. It happens quite often.

I have not stated that this was the only reason the vote failed. I did state that certain regions admitted that this was their intent and that they did so because of the author. That's it. Everything else you are spouting on about is a figment of your imagination. Your attempts to mislabel me fail, but please, feel free to continue.

[Imperium Anglorum]

A new thread should be made for the DrWinner submission of this resolution. I've gotten a campaign telegram from a New Francoism telling me to support it (strange though, this nation also wanted to submit some stuff to the WALR, but never replied to my telegrams).

[Cormactopia II]

Just for the record, beyond publicly giving my permission to DrWinner to use my draft earlier in this thread and approving the repeal proposal, I have nothing else to do with the newly submitted proposal.

[Guy]

Sciongrad, you seem to be missing the point, possibly intentionally regardless of stated disclaimers.

You are able to point to one instance of an early stack being overcome. The exception does not make the rule. It happens quite often.

I have not stated that this was the only reason the vote failed. I did state that certain regions admitted that this was their intent and that they did so because of the author. That's it. Everything else you are spouting on about is a figment of your imagination. Your attempts to mislabel me fail, but please, feel free to continue.

I think he's pointed to far more than one example by now. He's actually been quite convincing in making out the point that the lemming effect, while existent, is far smaller than commonly conceived.

[Sedgistan]

No luck needed. I watched the vote tally and have done for many in the past.

Luckily for you, though, your side won so you can say whatever you wish. If the vote had been stacked in the positive then you would possibly be singing a different tune about its effectiveness now. Who knows?

I know who knows. Those aliens that go into alternate dimensions. Maybe there's one where the TSP forums got rid of their worst admin.

That last bit of snark was totally unnecessary, and entirely irrelevant too.

I'm leaving the thread open for now, as there's an interesting discussion on the "lemming effect". If you want to discuss the re-submission of this proposal, you'll need a new thread for that.

[RiderSyl]

I know who knows. Those aliens that go into alternate dimensions. Maybe there's one where the TSP forums got rid of their worst admin.

That last bit of snark was totally unnecessary, and entirely irrelevant too.

My bad Sedge.

Alright, come off it. Are you actually going to pretend that you're not making the exact argument GR claims you're making?

I don't need to pretend. I haven't made the exact argument GR claims I, everyone, and their cousin is making.

I know who knows. Those aliens that go into alternate dimensions.

Very convincing argument. How long did it take you to think up that one?

I don't recall exactly how long it took me to come up with the totally serious point that dimension-hopping aliens know the inner workings of WA voting.
When I remember how long it took, I'll let you know.

I think he's pointed to far more than one example by now. He's actually been quite convincing in making out the point that the lemming effect, while existent, is far smaller than commonly conceived.

He's actually been quite convincing!... in your opinion.

[Pierconium]

Sciongrad, you seem to be missing the point, possibly intentionally regardless of stated disclaimers.

You are able to point to one instance of an early stack being overcome. The exception does not make the rule. It happens quite often.

I have not stated that this was the only reason the vote failed. I did state that certain regions admitted that this was their intent and that they did so because of the author. That's it. Everything else you are spouting on about is a figment of your imagination. Your attempts to mislabel me fail, but please, feel free to continue.

I think he's pointed to far more than one example by now. He's actually been quite convincing in making out the point that the lemming effect, while existent, is far smaller than commonly conceived.

I only see one example being put forward. Even if he produces two (or three) that does not change my point. The exception does not make the rule. Far more often than not, the so-called lemming effect is a factor.

Which, incidentally, still isn't my actual point. Several regions did stack this vote and admitted to it, and the reason given by some was the author. How has any of the rest of this drivel detracted from that at all? Just because someone comes in and says 'well sometimes the lemming effect doesn't work' does not discredit anything that those others have stated about their own actions.

Are you actually reading the posts or just regurgitating what TRR has been told to say?

[Sciongrad]

I only see one example being put forward. Even if he produces two (or three) that does not change my point. The exception does not make the rule. Far more often than not, the so-called lemming effect is a factor.

In my initial post, I actually cited indirectly GAR#323, GAR#325, GAR#369, and a failed repeal of GAR#286. Three of theses are just resolutions I've submitted on this nation. I know, and I have no doubt that you know, that it is a statistical impossibility that only my resolutions overcome the lemming effect. I cannot cite more directly because the World Assembly doesn't keep time-series stats, but there are countless examples. The lemming effect is overcome on a regular basis.

Which, incidentally, still isn't my actual point. Several regions did stack this vote and admitted to it, and the reason given by some was the author. How has any of the rest of this drivel detracted from that at all? Just because someone comes in and says 'well sometimes the lemming effect doesn't work' does not discredit anything that those others have stated about their own actions.

I contend that TSP was completely irrelevant to the outcome of this vote and that the majority of those voting in the negative have done so because of the initial vote stacking, as is often the case for these sorts of things. I highly doubt that the vast majority of those voting have any actual concern about the initial Condemnation or the merits of this repeal.

Your main point may be that several large delegates voted against the repeal because of its author, but as you indicate above, that argument is inextricably linked to the claim that the repeal's ultimate failure was inevitable due to the lemming effect. I am pointing out that this is a possibility but that you and others have been overstating its strength. Your claims that I'm trying to "mislabel" you (I don't even know you!) are misplaced.

[Imperium Anglorum]

I only see one example being put forward. Even if he produces two (or three) that does not change my point. The exception does not make the rule. Far more often than not, the so-called lemming effect is a factor.

In my initial post, I actually cited indirectly GAR#323, GAR#325, GAR#369, and a failed repeal of GAR#286. Three of theses are just resolutions I've submitted on this nation. I know, and I have no doubt that you know, that it is a statistical impossibility that only my resolutions overcome the lemming effect. I cannot cite more directly because the World Assembly doesn't keep time-series stats, but there are countless examples. The lemming effect is overcome on a regular basis.

I hate to bring up 325 GA 'Responsible Arms Trading' up, since it was most certainly the worst point in relations between us, but it did not overcome the lemming effect. The lemming effect brought it to vote.

[Sciongrad]

In my initial post, I actually cited indirectly GAR#323, GAR#325, GAR#369, and a failed repeal of GAR#286. Three of theses are just resolutions I've submitted on this nation. I know, and I have no doubt that you know, that it is a statistical impossibility that only my resolutions overcome the lemming effect. I cannot cite more directly because the World Assembly doesn't keep time-series stats, but there are countless examples. The lemming effect is overcome on a regular basis.

I hate to bring up 325 GA 'Responsible Arms Trading' up, since it was most certainly the worst point in relations between us, but it did not overcome the lemming effect. The lemming effect brought it to vote.

Thank you for that. I retract that particular claim. I am likely misremembering which resolution it was then. Permanent time-series stats would be useful for conversations just like this one!

EDIT: Upon looking through the link you cited, GAR#315, GAR#330, GAR#333, GAR#335, GAR#342, GAR#344, GAR#347, GAR#351, GAR#357, and GAR#358 all overcame the lemming effect. And this is by no means an exhaustive list.

[Imperium Anglorum]

I hate to bring up 325 GA 'Responsible Arms Trading' up, since it was most certainly the worst point in relations between us, but it did not overcome the lemming effect. The lemming effect brought it to vote.

Thank you for that. I retract that particular claim. I am likely misremembering which resolution it was then. Permanent time-series stats would be useful for conversations just like this one!

All here: http://54.226.41.75/the_north_pacific_wa_vote_reports/

[Pierconium]

Ah, my mistake, you provided 4 examples, not three. How does that not make them still exceptions?

You acknowledged that you propose resolutions in conjunction with several treaty partners (WALL right?), some of which include those regions that I note stacked this vote. At what point were those votes overcome? Perhaps once 1000-1300 additional votes were stacked on them to change the majority vote within a few hours or were these deficits overcome days into the vote? I am guessing the former for obvious reasons.

I have not stated that the lemming effect was the only factor, but it is a statistical impossibility that this vote was somehow unique.

Within 10-15 minutes of the votes open the tally was roughly 1500-600 against. The bulk of that against vote was constituted by three nations, while the bulk of the for vote was myself. If you are one of the roughly 10000 WA nations that probably doesn't care about Gameplay politics and you log on and see a new vote taking place and the first thing you see is quick jump to a 2:1 vote against then your inclination might be to assume that the majority is so for a valid reason and just vote with them. I do actually highly doubt that it would have failed if not for the early stacking. Do I think it would have been a landslide victory? Probably not, but if the vote had not been stacked at the beginning then it would have likely been closer.

And again, that is all beside the point. I'm not the one that claimed the vote was being stacked, that was part of the against crowd. They (your) side certainly seems to think there is validity to the tactic. I'm not sure why it is suddenly not relevant or somehow downplaying the issue or calling the majority of players ignorant to point it out. I guess if it had gone the other way you and the others would likely be arguing that it passed because of the lemming effect.

Oh well. It lost. I am just glad that I can now definitely point to certain parties as enemies of the nations of the Pacific, regardless of the ridiculous reasons some have put forward to justify their vote.

[Sciongrad]

Thank you for that. I retract that particular claim. I am likely misremembering which resolution it was then. Permanent time-series stats would be useful for conversations just like this one!

All here: http://54.226.41.75/the_north_pacific_wa_vote_reports/

That is spectacularly useful. Thanks!

[Sciongrad]

Ah, my mistake, you provided 4 examples, not three. How does that not make them still exceptions?

You claimed I provided one. With the tool IA just provided, I cited another 10 (only including GAR#315-358). If I (or anyone) took to the time to dig through that entire list, you'll no doubt find dozens of example. But I don't think this discussion has the possibility of being very fruitful at this point. I'll reiterate a final time that I have no opinion on this particular issue. My only reason for posting in this thread is specifically to discuss the scope of the lemming effect.

EDIT: I also resent the implication that I would somehow argue for the strength of the lemming effect just to spite you or your region. I have been making this exact argument for years.

[Pierconium]

Ah, my mistake, you provided 4 examples, not three. How does that not make them still exceptions?

You claimed I provided one. With the tool IA just provided, I cited another 10 (only including GAR#315-358). If I (or anyone) took to the time to dig through that entire list, you'll no doubt find dozens of example. But I don't think this argument has the possibility of being very fruitful at this point. I'll reiterate a final time that I have no opinion on this particular issue. My only reason for posting in this thread is specifically to discuss the scope of the lemming effect.

Do you want to quantify that? In the SC votes, there are not 10 resolutions that had obvious stacking in the initial 2 vote counts that resulted in an eventual reversal. The vast majority do indeed show sizable stacking from the outset which is carried forward to the final tally.

The exceptions to this are the condemnations for DEN, Kknight, and Vandoosa. And also the repeal vote for Durk's condemnation. Otherwise, it seems to fit very closely to the pattern I have outlined above.

Yes, I can concede that the lemming effect may not be as regularly impactful in the GA, but that is a different beast altogether. The negative connotations associated with the condemnation, and the inverse positive connotations of the commendations, could, and seem to based on the evidence, trigger a more empathic vote for the majority.

[Sciongrad]

Yes, I can concede that the lemming effect may not be as regularly impactful in the GA, but that is a different beast altogether. The negative connotations associated with the condemnation, and the inverse positive connotations of the commendations, could, and seem to based on the evidence, trigger a more empathic vote for the majority.

That's fair. GA resolutions are probably more accessible to the average player. A lot of SC resolutions, particularly condemnations and commendations, require another level of attention or research. I might be guilty of inappropriately imposing a GA phenomenon on the SC. I don't have knowledge or experience in gameplay so my argument, while true in the GA, might not be so here.