Consequences
December 5, 2014 - 18:00 hrs [UTC+2]
Tripoli, Kingdom of Libya
Royal Palace of Tripoli
(32° 53' 16" N, 13° 11' 21" E)
Mazhar Shafiq Antar was the last to enter the King's office and he did with a folder in his hand and nothing else. It was marked with all manner of stamps indicating that the contents were highly classified and he handed them not to the King's guest - though they were intended for him - but to the King himself. King Yusuf III smiled and thanked his aide, asking him to be seated. "Thank you Mazhar," he said, "sit with us."
"Yes Your Majesty," Mazhar sat as he'd been instructed leaving an air of silence inside of the room.
"This is for your chief of station," King Yusuf III finally said after a few moments. He put the folder onto his desk and slid it forward to the seasoned diplomat before him who took the folder and placed it in his lap, keeping it closed for the time being. The King appreciated the discipline, "The Apilonian strike was more successful than they could have imagined. It seems that Musa Safar was killed in yesterday's strikes and they've set an entirely new chain of events in place, a chain of events I might not appreciate." Musa Safar was one of four (five if you counted the government) warlords that controlled northern Cyrenaica. His territory included the port city of Benghazi and the surrounding area known as Hizam al Akhdar.
"The strike came as a surprise to us Your Majesty. Had we known about it ahead of time we might have asked them to hold if only for a day so that we could assess the impact," responded Jamie Koehler, the sixty-two year old Layartebian ambassador who'd been summoned to meet with King Yusuf III only four hours earlier.
"Well I doubt that would have changed things. Whatever intelligence they had was actionable I am sure. I have my own chief of intelligence running a post mortem on the situation. In the meantime, inside there," he motioned with his chin to the folder, "you'll find something of great interest. Safar was something of a power broker amongst the other warlords. He was able to keep all of them neutral with one another by some manner we cannot fully ascertain. Now that he's dead there's a big vacuum in his territories for a new leader and in this moment of weakness it seems that opportunists have arisen."
"Al-Shams?"
"No," King Yusuf III shook his head for emphasis. "'President' if I may even call him one, Bandar Zaim Cham and Amid Essa," he added. "President" Bandar Zaim Cham was the legal claimant to the government of Cyrenaica, which controlled only Derna and the easternmost area of Butnan. Amid Essa, a warlord like Safar (and Cham really), controlled the territory just east of Safar's, areas known as Jabal al Akhdar and Marj. In between these and Cham stood Abdul-Ghafur Daher, the weakest of the warlords, who controlled Quba. Cham, Daher, and Essa had always been on neutral terms with Daher and Cham being closer than Cham and Essa or Daher and Essa were. "It seems that Cham and Essa had a meeting this morning and cut a deal; they're going to move on Safar's lands."
"What about Daher?"
"Daher can be bought and will be bought. He's no ruler, he's a figurehead, a puppet kept in place by Essa's guns and Cham's money. It will take Essa and Cham a few days to get their forces ready for the expedition but you should be aware that armed conflict is about to break out in northern Cyrenaica and that means a potential spread of hostilities. I'm not happy about this by any stretch of the imagination and I'd like your government to convey that to your allies." It was the way he said "allies" that made Koehler understand the true measure of King Yusuf III's irritation. He had to deal with Cyrenaica's transgressions for a long time but never the threat of an explosive civil war and now he did as a result of Apilonia's strikes on Benghazi. They'd been justified but the wider, regional situation hadn't been taken into account, a step back for King Yusuf III who faced a precarious situation.
"What's the next step for your country?"
"We put our military units on the border on high alert in case this spreads into a full-blown civil war."
"What are the implications if it does; if I may ask?"
"You may," King Yusuf III looked to his aide to answer this question though.
"Cham, Daher, and Essa would form a singular bloc against whoever succeeds Safar. Bazzi would probably side with Safar's successor and Al-Shams would remain a wildcard." Mazhar answered, introducing the fourth/fifth warlord, Jamal al Din Muhammad Bazzi who controlled a very wide swath of land south of everyone else's territory (though west of Butnan) and north of Al-Shams controlled Kufra. His territory was known as Ajdabiya and Al Wahat. Bazzi's forces tangoed with the Libyan military frequently at the border but his and the others were warlord militias, heavily armed but undisciplined and lacking in sophistication. They had heavy artillery in the form of mortars, rockets, tubes, and anti-aircraft guns but they didn't have anything more potent than a technical or a truck. Their "navy" was nothing more than fishing boats and skiffs with heavy machine guns and their "air force" was non-existent. They were a ground force, though a sizeable one.
"Does your navy have forces in the Med that can respond?"
"I am sure Your Majesty."
"You may want to see to it that they do. We're going to act to defend ourselves if we have to and while I'd like that to be a joint operation, I must say that if we have to act we will, regardless of whether or not you may assist us."
"I understand and I'll convey the message accordingly."
"Thank you Mister Ambassador. Mazhar will see you out," Koehler stood as did Mazhar. Salutations were exchanged and Mazhar led Koehler out of the palace to his vehicle, which was kept waiting just outside of the building.
"Mister Ambassador," Mazhar said just before Koehler stepped out of the door. "Would you please ensure that your government fully understands the consequences of Apilonia's actions? A civil war in Cyrenaica would cause a massive, regional conflict here. Al-Shams would gain power like they've never had before and your 'quiet war' on them won't be enough."
Koehler shook his head, offered his hand, and stepped out, sliding into the backseat of the car, which sped off moments later after his bodyguard shut the door and returned to the passenger seat.
December 5, 2014 - 18:35 hrs [UTC+2]
Tripoli, Kingdom of Libya
Layartebian Embassy
(32° 53' 37" N, 13° 11' 38" E)
It took all of five minutes to get to the embassy, which was barely over a kilometer away. Koehler didn't wait for his bodyguard to open his car door either. The moment it came to a stop, he flew out and moved quickly, much too quickly for a man of his age but he needed to get to his office rapidly and brief his chief of station, who'd been told to be waiting for him. George Garza was and Koehler didn't say anything as he walked through his waiting room and into his office. Garza followed in the ambassador's wake and took a seat as the ambassador plopped down into his own chair. He'd leafed through the folder on the drive over but he hadn't read much due to the short distance. "Those goddamn Apilonians have fucked up everything George!"
"Sir?"
"Here," he handed over the folder. "I just got out of a meeting with King Yusuf III. The warlord in Benghazi…" Koehler searched for the name.
"Musa Safar."
"Yes. He's dead."
"We just heard," Garza answered. When Koehler looked at him funnily George elaborated, "SIGINT intercept. Safar's confirmed dead and now there's a small leadership crisis within his militia. Our money is on his second-in-command."
"Our money?"
"Well the collective belief of the analysts. Safar put his brother-in-law, well one of them. He's got three wives and about fourteen brother-in-law's but he put his favorite one in the position. But he's no leader. My money is on Ratib Suhayl Malouf, one of his generals."
"Is Malouf competent?"
"Regrettably so."
"Well I'm glad we're on top of it but I have something additional in that folder. Something you might not have yet."
"All right, I'll bite."
"Cham and Essa had a meeting this morning and agreed to attack Safar's territories. Cham wants Benghazi and Essa wants the rest of the territory around it. They're going to make a push in a few days and the Libyans are pissed off and rightfully so."
"Could become a civil war."
"That's their worry," Koehler said. "It's all in there. We need that document sent high priority to Layarteb City."
"Did they say where they got this additional info?"
"No and the file looks scrubbed."
"I bet it is. It probably came from a source inside of Cham's government. They wouldn't want to reveal that information. I need to know though if I'm to attach merit to it."
"We've got contacts with their intelligence department don't we?"
"Yes."
"Time to use them to validate this."
"All right but you know what this means right?"
"It means we could be fighting a big war right next door and we don't want it." Garza just nodded.
December 7, 2014 - 09:40 hrs [UTC+2]
Mediterranean Sea
Lima Station
(32° 53' 37" N, 13° 11' 38" E)
Vice Admiral Daniel Williams looked out from the bridge of the ILS Hnoss (LHA-33), a Frigg-class amphibious assault carrier that was the centerpiece of the 7th Amphibious Ready Group, which had been dispatched from Souda Bay Naval Base only a few hours earlier. The entire task force had gone flank speed to what was dubbed as Lima Station, a patrol box approximately one hundred nautical miles off of the coastline of Benghazi. It had taken them a little over twelve hours to travel the full 340 nautical miles to the station and there they met the ILS Mediterranean, a Washington-class aircraft carrier with the 4th Escort Group, the only other Layartebian battlegroup operating in the Mediterranean Sea, which formed the 7th Carrier Strike Group. Together, the two groups amassed twenty-four naval vessels, nearly eleven thousand sailors, two hundred and ten aircraft, and fifty-three hundred Marines.
Vice Admiral Williams was in charge of it all, despite not commanding the carrier group. Normally the carrier admirals got the command billet for operations but he was a vice admiral and Randall Samuels, the commanding officer of the 7th Carrier Strike Group was only a senior admiral (SADM) meaning he had one more star. It wasn't often that CVSGs were mated with ARGs but the circumstances didn't permit a full CVBG so the navy had to work with what they had. News of the arrival of both groups had made King Yusuf III happy but for VADM Williams, the deployment wasn't something to get elated about. His orders didn't say anything about getting involved in a civil war in Cyrenaica nor did they say anything about assisting Libyan forces in combat. They were merely parked there, orbiting their patrol sector for the purpose of power projection. King Yusuf III of course didn't know this.
"Sir," came the voice of a subordinate and VADM Williams turned to look at the baby face of a young seaman first class who'd been sent to deliver him the message. "Senior Admiral Samuels is arriving on that helicopter sir."
"Thank you Seaman, tell the deck officer I'll be down in a minute."
"Aye aye, sir." The seamen first class turned on his heels and was gone. VADM Williams took one last look at the faraway horizon and fell back inside of the island, walking down the steps to the flight deck where an MH-60S Knight Hawk from HCM-308 was just touching down on the ship's flight deck. The rotors immediately began to wind down and one of the sailors on the flight deck walked up to and opened the helicopter's starboard side door. SADM Samuels stepped out with a briefcase and strode over to his superior. No salutes were exchanged though they did shake hands and then retreated inside of the island where VADM Williams led the man to his personal quarters, which were roomy and spacious enough for the two men to sit and discuss matters comfortably.
There, the two men reviewed their separate orders, found no contradiction in them - a mild surprise - and then got to discussing the plan. "Lima Station's about one hundred nautical miles from the coastline. We don't have any real threats out here. Intel passed on that their 'navy' is nothing more than skiffs and fishing boats that they've strapped .50-cal guns to so we'll watch out for those. Air threats are nil," SADM Samuels said in response to this discussion point.
"We've only got one escort group to share between us and that's fine for me. I'm not looking to get in close to deploy Marines anyhow. We'll use the 4th Escort Group to form a picket between us and the Cyrenaican coastline. Nothing they have is going to get through them. Do you have your Scarecrow up?"
"Yes, we're running fully battlefield surveillance. We don't want any surprises here. Intel say anything about Scud missiles?"
"Nothing and if they did have any I think we'd be fine. We're a moving target and the Scud can't hit a specific building in a stationary city on a good day. If we get a ballistic launch I doubt it's even worth it to shoot it down."
"I assume this is as close to the coastline as we're going to get."
"Seems like it. We're just far away enough that we're safely over the horizon and just close enough that we can launch air sorties. It seems like the Ministry of Defense wants us in a prime position."
"Did they tell you anything about the SEALS?"
"SEALS?"
"About halfway here we took on a COD with full combat troop, forty guys. They were crammed in there like sardines."
"Nope, nothing, it's probably just regular planning. Which one has jurisdiction over North Africa? Is it Six or Seven?"
"Six, out of Little Creek."
"That must have been one very long and shitty ride for them."
"They were all complaining about sore asses when they walked off the flight deck," at this SADM Samuels smiled. He'd ridden on COD aircraft plenty of times but never in the manner accustomed to by the SEALS who crammed their gear and people everywhere they could regardless of comfort. "They've got two platoons and thirty-two shooters on my carrier and JSOC gives them the go ahead you know what that'll mean."
"I do," VADM Williams said shaking his head. He wanted a cigarette but he promised his wife that he'd quit before the next voyage, though he didn't expect to get one for another six months. The premature rush to quitting had left him a little extra irritable and impatient. "I think I'll want another escort group before we get that close. There's only nine ships with the 4th Escort Group and to me that's barely enough, even against this kind of threat, or lack thereof; because these kinds of situations are when the pencil pushers shortchange us and something big happens."
"What's the biggest worry?"
"A skiff filled with explosives ramming into us." The thought was sobering for SADM Samuels.
"I'll make sure the escorts are watching every inch of the horizon."
"You do that for now we'll hang back. I've got fifty-three hundred Marines aboard my ships, one whole brigade and if we need the rest of the damned division is sitting on Crete bitching and moaning that they didn't get to deploy." They continued discussion the game plan for another hour before the subject of how this intel got to the military came up and in this case neither man had any clue. All they knew was that they had to get here on the double because the shit was about to hit the fan in Cyrenaica.