Lupinus wrote:The Kievan People wrote:
Only if you have a decisive edge in BVR capabilities.
But if you have (say for example) AIM-54s and your opponent has R-33s (nearly identical missiles), the B-1R or comparable missiles truck would likely lose against a group of fighters. Basically every fighter will be firing at the lone missile truck, while the missile truck is spreading its missiles between each fighter (or interceptor it doesn't matter).
Imagine a B-1R meets four fighters. For simplicity assume every missiles shot has a 50% Pk and all missiles have the same range.
1. The B-1R fires two missiles at each fighter. The probability of each fighter surviving is 25% (0.5^2), the probability of at least one fighter surviving is 93%.
2. Each fighter fires two missiles at the B-1R. The probability of the B-1R surviving is under 1% (0.5^8).
To even the odds the B-1R would need to fire 32 missiles. Which will be a very significant fraction of its payload, maybe even its entire payload. Two BVR missiles is in contrast not a large load for a fighter.
It should also be said that good BVR capability extends beyond your air superiority platforms, you need good AWACs and NTCR platforms too.
In my view, WVR capability (in either a more balanced design or in a mixed fleet of BVR-oriented and WVR-oriented fighters) is still important in any case. Since Vietnam good or at least passable WVR performance has been a design priority in most Western fighters.
People still argue about whether or not WVR combat is obsolete, after all Vietnam is now further in the past for us than WWII was for Vietnam-era airforces, and BVR technology has matured. However, WVR kills (with radar-guided missiles, IR missiles and rarely even the gun) are still making up a significant portion of kills in recent conflicts, even though the trend is moving towards more and more BVR combat.
On the other hand, short range IR missiles are becoming so lethal that avoiding short-range combat and focusing more on BVR may be the smart thing to do from a survivability point of view.
The primary limiter IRL, then in Vietnam as is now, is rules of engagement.
Sure you could have these very long-range BVRAAMs with ranges of greater than 300km/187.5mi and very mature seekers with high Pk, but as long as your rules of engagement demand clear identification of targets and don't let you just shoot at all the things that enter your AoR, then WVR combat will always be a thing.
Of course its another matter in stereotypical NS land, where being an asshole/paranoid lunatic who shoots first at anything that trespasses one's airspace seems to be a virtue...
Also, its highly possible that in an actual no holds barred shooting war between peers the electronic warfare, decoys and deception utilized would be such that even these mature BVRAAMs will see their Pks drop such that they will close into WVR precisely because they can guarantee kills - regardless of higher risk to self.
