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Nations >>

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El Cuscatlan >>
El Cuscatlan: Oil, Money and Power
El Cuscatlan: Militancy in Central America
Regnum Albion >>
Regnum Albion: A State of the Service
YellowStar Republic >>
YSR, Plätteisen Adler & Astyria: Is Escalation Unavoidable?

Regions >>

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Astyria >>
Trophy Ports, Trellin, Andamonia, and Southern Astyria
TaH-29: Riysa's Newest Contender
YSR, Plätteisen Adler & Astyria: Is Escalation Unavoidable?
2016 Astyrian Power Rankings
Aurora >>
Regnum Albion: A State of the Service

Intelligence Reports >>

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Astyria >>
CONFEDERACY, BLACKHELM: Naval Deployment of GHawkins

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Trophy Ports, Trellin, Andamonia, and Southern Astyria

February 16, 2014 | 12:17 GMT

Summary


("Deqra Lahül Khorvika/KDN)
Citizens of Rha'gutza protest outside the local courthouse over food shortages.

Iizok Nethil, governor of the independent-territory of Rha'gutza, stated on 10 February 2014 that the enactment of curfews, riot police and martial law would be the key to keeping the Khalitan natives at bay in dealing with the rising struggle to find food within the cities, given DramFreight's inability to bypass the Trellinese blockade on the Andamonian-held Trophy Ports of Rha'gutza and Khorvu. An emergency meeting was called by himself to address the rising insurrection, and reportedly only 5 of 17 Councillors who assisted in the governing of the state attended.

Likewise, in a strong act of symbolism against the Andamonian crown, the Khalitan natives invaded the local courthouse, tearing down the statute of Hanrel Mata - the Andamonian commander who conquered Rha'gutza and Khorvu - in Liberty Square. The statue was transported to the courthouse where it was tried for war crimes and attempted genocide against the Khalitan natives. He was found guilty and sentenced to death by drowning, to which end the Councillor of the trial proclaimed, "God save the King!" and prompted the crowd of hungry individuals to throw the statue into the harbor. In a singular act of immense political and sociological symbolism, the people of Rha'gutza have eliminated the Andamonian crown from their judicial proceedings.

Analysis

Though the postmortem indictment of the Andamonian hero proved to be a strong act of symbolism and deterrence against the Andamonian Crown, it has done nothing more than create a catalyst for the uphill battle the Andamonian Parliament inevitably faces in dealing with this crisis. The Andamonian grip on Rha'gutza and Khorvu have been waning since the early 1920's, when rebel factions would often sabotage the ships stationed there as well as the large garrison of troops on the islets. It is no mysterious fact that Trellin has lain claims on the islands since their conquering in the 1890's, with open and armed conflict taking place early on in the 20th Century.

The Trophy Wars would solidify Andamonia's claims to both Khorvu and Rha'gutza, but it would not shape the ideological function of the Khalitan natives, who would retain firmly the belief that their government and King should be that of their Trellinese forebears. Insurgency would decline and, as is seen throughout history under conquer, the people of the state would simply accept the new rule and live their lives to the best of their abilities; however, this would not be so in Khorvu nor Rha'gutza as they were greatly influenced by the other, Trellinese, islands of Durats, Vacoas and Mintra, which would retain strong trade power with the Andamonian-occupied islands throughout the 20th Century via the freight company DramFreight.

With the population of the Andamonian-held Trophy Ports sitting at just above two-hundred and seventy-five thousand, most of which living along the fresh-water aquifers in the territories, the Andamonian Crown has been well suited to keep strong controls over the populace, with its organisational capabilities, available manpower and relative popularity among the Khalitan people. This has been demonstrated by the Rha'gutzan governor whom has imposed strict curfews and Martial Law across the territory.

It is important to recognize the strong differences in the Trellinese-held Trophy Ports and those of their Andamonian-held brethren. The Trellinese ports, retaining their access to trade across the Empire, have a much higher HDI index of 0.879 to the Andamonian's HDI index of 0.682, which has markedly dropped due to the trade restrictions by the Trellinese Crown. Likewise, the Trellinese islands enjoy a much larger amount of autonomy to the Crown than the Andamonian territories, which answer regularly to the mainland Parliament and must go through many formalities to change laws. Likewise, Andamonia has increased their garrisons in the territories almost 49% over the past decade, which has lead drastically to the militant ideology which has been seen in the Khalitan natives.

These differences outline the different political spheres of an area less than 800km². On one end of the spectrum, autonomy and a peaceful way of life is readily evident where on the other an atmosphere of militant suppression is ever-apparent, which has fed into the Khalitan refusal of Andamonian authority and their recent appeal to the Trellinese King to once again be admitted into the Empire, and was aided by the local militia groups which have taken a stranglehold over the islands, inflating Trellinese-Andamonian relations even further.

The Andamonian-occupied Trophy Ports has been the centrifuge of Trellinese-Andamonian relations since the beginning of the 20th Century, and is one of the main reasons Trellin remains in isolation today. Andamonia has frequently enticed the Trellinese into taking military action against them in the past, but with the current state of the Andamonian economy, mostly due to the trade restrictions of the Trellinese and their stranglehold of the Sea of Velar, the Andamonian Crown has been reluctant to poke the Trellinese bear any further. However, this has not kept them from attempting to bypass the trade restrictions via smuggling and foreign agents operating within the Trellinese ports, which has strained relations even further in the back channel diplomacy which goes on every year.

Due to this economic hardship, Andamonian funding to the military has been slashed by more than 30%, which has left large stockpiles of ordinance untouched in the territories, feeding the Khalitan rebel factions and organized crime, as well as other militia groups across the nation. In a bizarre twist of fate, post-militant Andamonia has actually seen a rise of local militia in Khorvu and throughout the entire country. While King Mocat Xekomo never intended for these militia groups to actively fight his uniformed forces or to keep the central government of the territories in check, they have done just that: specifically, the proliferation of local militias keeping in check the central government's ability to rule through force or unpopular decree.

The abilities of these local militias has underscored the main problem for the mainland Andamonian Parliament and the Crown: the Andamonian military is one of the most dysfunctional and poorly organized institutions within the Andamonian state. Budget cuts, Parliamentary debate over the future of the Trophy Ports and the role of the Andamonian Navy, as well as the rising tension over how to go around the Trellinese embargo, and a lack of clear communication from the Crown to Parliamentary bodies across the Kingdom have all hampered the military's ability to secure the country or push back against militia posturing in the Trophy Ports.

The local militias have, strangely, not been seen during the current crisis in the Andamonian-occupied territories. This is most likely due to their varying degrees of loyalty and dependability to the Crown, and their inability to actively fight a however dysfunctional uniformed military which has more expendable resources than those of the militants. There have been calls for the local government, namely Governor Iizok Nethil, to step down from power and allow the Khalitan natives to govern themselves; however, there is still strong popular resistance to the formation of another new strongman government rising in Rha'gutza, especially if said government answers to the Andamonian Crown.

The true state of the Andamonian military was seen when they began to attempt to quell the peaceful riots outside of government ministries, as the fact remains that Andamonia's army is demoralized, weak and out-armed by the various militias and armed groups that have risen to fill the void of the central government throughout the territories during the economic crisis. It is arguable that even if a faction of the military could rise up and overthrow the now-civilian government, it would be unable to arbitrate between the various militias and political factions that would vie to replace the mainland Parliament and the Andamonian Crown.

Inevitably, Andamonia's military and political sphere are incapable of reconciling the territories back to the form from which they have seceded. The state of the Andamonian military is one which has suffered from large-scale defections and the loss of weapons, equipment and materiel following the Trellinese embargo, due to organized crime as well as the governments inability to keep troops fed and outfitted with the equipment necessary. Local militia groups, such as those from the Tlatleyo province, or various pro-government militias of varying degrees of loyalty and dependability, support the national army in almost all of its operations in the country, which have ultimately lead to the insurrection being seen in the Trophy Ports.

Forecast: The Ports and Southern Astyria

The Khalitan natives of Rha'gutza have already appealed to the Trellinese Crown in accepting their admittance back into the Empire, which has caused a large political rift within the Andamonian government. Militant parties such as the People's Faction have lobbied for strong action against the rebellious territories and ultimately the imprisonment of the opposition leaders, while more moderate factions like the Royal Alliance have lobbied against such militant action which would give the Trellinese all of the casus belli they required to launch an assault against the nation. Ultimately, neither party will be able to vie for the King's decision, as this situation has left Trellin with only one option.

As the territories in question have long been claimed by the Trellinese Crown and, given that they were taken by force 119 years ago, alongside the Khalitan natives which have universal approval for the Trellinese and want to dispose of the Andamonian Crown Authority in the region, it is only reasonable to denote that King Mahrim II will accept their plea for annexation and immediately deploy Trellinese military units to the area to solidify their claim once more.

The relations between Trellin and Andamonia have been non-existent since the early 20th Century, and there is no way that anyone from either government, on any level or position, would be willing to moderate between the two Kings and their wishes. The sphere of South Western Astyria, and mostly that of the southern regions of the Mederano Peninsula and the areas east of Tersepolis will be vastly affected by the conflict that is about to erupt between the two rival nations.

Trellin will undoubtedly accept the territories' plea for assistance and meet that plea with the deployment of the First Fleet, as well as Army units which can outfight any of the forces the Andamonian military can pull together; aided by Trellinese-sympathetic militia groups from around the country, or even specifically located within the territories, the Trellinese will have no problems in solidifying their claims without the proliferation of full military action against either country. Andamonia will rather accept a political and ideological defeat in the short term than fight a war they are fully aware is incapable of being won, diving the nation deeper into a recession which is seemingly destroying the government.

It is unclear, however, whether or not this move by the King of Trellin will ultimately lead to the Empire's dissolution of their isolationist policies; while the three protectorates of the Trellinese Empire have autonomously acted as the eyes and ears of the King for decades, being the only port which accepts foreign businesses and trade, the speculative economy of Trellin is one which is rather stagnant and in need of foreign goods and business to give it the kick necessary to jump-start the economy once again. The Trellinese are very secretive and as such no official economic forecast has been published in well over five decades, but it is reasonable to assume that in that time the industrial capacity of the nation has not grown exponentially.

If the Trellinese do in-fact exit their isolationism, it is reasonable to assume that the governments of the other royalty across the region will immediately begin funneling back-channel diplomats to the country in an effort to begin market capitalization as soon as possible; however, a war within the southern regions of Astyria between the Trellinese and Andamonia will only act to the detriment of the other nations within the immediate region. While a war is not plausible, it is not impossible.

Copyright 2014, Wright & Apollo

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W&A INTEL//CONFEDERACY, BLACKHELM: Naval Deployment of GHawkins

Report Filed 2 February 2014 at 16:57 GMT

Mission Purpose

The purpose of this Intelligence Report is to acquiesce the fleet deployments, movements, and locations of the fleets of GHawkins as per contracted by the Blackhelm Confederacy per contract ARQ-281//JR81, authorized by Director Stanning, Intelligence Division, and approved by Mr.Wright. Due to the volatile nature of this documents, its findings and the sensitive information within, this document has been deemed TOP SECRET, and may only be replicated via Eyes-Only procedure and to be destroyed whence viewing is completed.

Initial Findings

The beginning of our findings towards the deployment of GHawkins naval movements commenced with HUMINT resources with close ties to the Ministerie van Defensie, as well as visual surveillance of the Naval Shipyard at which the fleet is scheduled to deploy from. Our oganisation used a wide variety of surveillance techniques to conduct the surveillance of the fleet and to track its movements throughout their deployment in what is believed to be a course to the Noble Kingdom of Agrincourt¹.

The Demeter Carrier Group, accompanied by the 3rd and 4th Task Groups (consisting of: 1 Ticonderoga Cruiser, 1 Arleigh Burke Destroyer, 1 Zeven Provincien Frigate, and 2 Oliver Hazard Perry Frigates each, respectively) have been seen in what looks to be major preparations for a long voyage in what is rumored to be a final destination of Agrincourt; additionally, HUMINT sources within the Ministerie van Defensie, 'Iceman', has confirmed that it is possible that the 5th and 6th Flotilla's will be accompanying the Carrier Group to their final destination en-route.

It is further confirmed via 'Iceman' that the 4th Task Group, consisting of 1 Ticonderoga Cruiser, 1 Arleigh Burke Destroyer, 1 Zeven Provincien Frigate, and 2 Oliver Hazard Perry Frigates, have already left port and are escorting several cargo ships, which are rumored to contain elements of the 4th Airborne Division. If these findings are true, these ships are almost undoubtedly going to neutral-Tersepolis for insertion to Agrincourt or directly to Agrincourt for combat.

Satellite imagery has compiled evidence which shows large military equipment, including munitions, large amounts of jet fuel and armored vehicles, arriving at the naval shipyard in what can only be described as a preparation for a conflict. The chance of making headway directly to Agrincourt, when accounting for regional politics and events, as well as the large conflict commencing between the Eastern Astyrian Trade Alliance (EATA) and the Astyrian Trade Organisation (ATO) of which either side is a part, is very likely once the fleet leaves port.

As of this report, the Carrier Group has not left port but will be (estimated) prepared to do so within the next two weeks, and from that time, will arrive in Agrincourt by the mid-March.

Forecast

It is the forecast of this intelligence report that the GHawkins fleet is on course for conflict with the Blackhelm Confederacy in the Noble Kingdom of Agrincourt. Judging by it's current heading, speed, as well as the information compiled by satellite and HUMINT sources within the GHawkins government, it is this board's recommendation that the Blackhelm Confederacy anticipate an arrival of GHawkin military resources by 26 February 2014, which may or may not consist of ground paramilitary troops.

The location of the other fleets as of this time are estimated to be circling the Auroran Confederacy, in support of the Plättesian Adler Conflict between the Yellow Star Republic and united ATO forces in the North. Likewise, there is believed to be the 2nd Fleet patrolling the waters south of GHawkins on routine patrols.

Copyright 2014, Wright & Apollo

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El Cuscatlan: Oil, Money and Power

2 February 2014 17:47 GMT

Summary


(DOP/ECN)
A propaganda image depicts the nationalization of the oil industry and promotes domestic trade over foreign imports.

The decision by Cuadillo of El Cuscatlan, Martinez, to almost completely nationalize private corporations into state-sponsored monopolies has supposedly increased the standard of living within the nation and at the same time completely driven out crime and vandalism; while these reports may be unsubstantiated, as they are from within the almost-dictatorial government, it can be stated with fact that Martinez's successor, Cuadillo Carlos Silva, has embraced his predecessors policies and furthered them into the American oil market.

Martinez has effectively created a second oil market which has flooded the global supply to such an inflated rate that oil prices have dropped dramatically in the region. His plan to flood the market with Cascatlanian oil to be sold only via the Cuscatlani golden peso is one which has been met with large amounts of opposition and is a decision which could inevitably hurt the nation in the long term.

Analysis

Before the policy decisions of Cuadillo Silva can be examined, it is first required that the state of the nation be addressed to better understand the mass socialization of the country's private corporations and thus too the creation of a second oil market in the Western Hemisphere to compete with that of the United States and the Middle East.

El Cascatlan is a federation of South American states whom are governed by a military Junta which follows the ideological view of Martinezism, effectively a cult following of the first Cuadillo Martinez; this can be likened to the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the leadership of Ayatollah Khomeini. The nation is vastly militarized and wields strong political power over its neighbors, alongside a strong market for American oil and gas. It is currently lead by what many would consider a dictator, Cuadillo Carlos Silva.

Regardless of the political views of the nation, one thing is clear: the policies of Martinezism have effectively created a state-government and state-economy, one which dominates all sectors of the market and one which is subsidized by federal grants and loans. It is unclear whether this socialization has lead to a Communist state, although it is viable given the structure of the government. The ideology of Martinezism is one which has taken a hold of policy across the board and which cannot be ignored throughout the analysis of exactly why a second oil market has been deemed necessary.

Martinezism is a very Marxist-esque ideology, calling for the nation's good over that of the people. Likewise, it strongly rejects the ideologies of Westernized Democracy, as Martinezism calls on the governing of all to be conducted by the individual ruler rather than a political and governmental sphere where laws must be voted on. It goes to a very biblical thought process, that it is better to have one unwavering leader than many disagreeing figureheads. It is an ideology which is long past its epoch, but somehow still thrives in this growing federation. Martinezism further defines the three spheres of independence and it is here where we may truly understand why the nation continues its policy in the fashion it does: military independence, economic independence, and ideological independence.

The state-owned corporations which would be used for the benefit of this secondary oil market are specifically nationalized so that the key industry can be monopolized and fully integrated into state policy. Effectively, it shuts the valve of trade off to any nation the junta dislikes and, while it may be effective for embargo, it is certainly a faulty ideal which restricts severely the ability of the nation to trade in a free market to harbor economic growth and development. It is, undoubtedly, the ideology of Martinezism that has founded the bedrock of policy in this nation and is the reason why the country continues to flood the international oil market with more goods than is necessary; this is not to say, however, that these products will be purchased.

While the Cuadillo has promised cheaper, and better refined oil for the rest of the world, it is unlikely that any of the oil will be purchased in great quantity. The oil is manfucatured by state-run corporations which means that there is no regulatory oversight, which can thus lead to lower-grade petroleum or even faulty oil. Secondly, there is the much more important matter of the buying currency. The Gran Federación Lopeziano of El Cuscatlan is not nearly politically, topographically or economically big enough to garner any sort of real shift of balance in the international oil market.

While the United States now exports more oil per day than Saudi Arabia, it is fallible to assume that adding another large exporter would eliminate the United States' ability to sell its goods or even create a dent in its exports. The nations of the world buy and trade goods in either the NationStates Dollar (NSD) or the common United States Dollar (USD). The fundamental flaw in the Cuadillo's state-sponsored oil export program is the necessity that all proceeds be paid in Cuscatlani Golden Pesos (CGP). There are very few nations around the world who have CGP stocks to which they can use for their procurement of the Cuscatlani oil, and even further there are nations such as Dournes who have vilified and condemned the Gran Federación Lopeziano of El Cuscatlan for their, "attempt to monopolize the international petroleum markets through his domestic reforms"¹.

Forecast: Sink or Swim?

It will only be a matter of time before the El Cuscatlanian drive to dominate the oil market through its Consejo Económico Nacional (CEN/NEC) program will falter and die. Unless the Cuadillo announces major reforms to the export policy of their oil, the market will be more than willing to go to other, traditional suppliers rather than invest in a currency and nation they know little to nothing about. The state subsidy of the nation's largest corporations wields immense pressures to the government and there is no way to ensure that during an economic crisis these company's will remain in business throughout the event.

The Cuadillo has announced plans to incorporate REMs, gas, gold, and rubber to the list of exports in an attempt to break the OPEC, but unfortunately it will be for naught. It is not so much the willingness to put mass goods on the market at a time to attempt to drive down prices internationally than the inability of the State to know exactly how to export their goods in a market which has more reliable sources for exactly the same things. Entering a new market is extremely difficult, and the Cuadillo is doing it all wrong.

If the Cuadillo doesn't reform the export policies of the nation, there will be little to no buyers internationally and the economy may suffer as a result, due to the large appropriations having been given to oil companies around the country who are now digging in as many places as possible. The large propaganda campaign² that is being used by the Junta in an attempt to discredit the opposing nations as well as their own people will be for naught if the oil isn't purchased; indeed the only nations to embrace Martinezism or the influx of Cuscatlanian oil has been the select few nations of Huda, and Zataristan, while only the nation of Whiteshore has even embraced the Martinez philosophy and decreed its support.

Oil is a precious commodity in the 21st Century, but even then, if the sales pitch isn't right, then there is no sale at all.

Copyright 2014, Wright & Apollo

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Regnum Albion: A State of the Service

2 February 2014 19:13 GMT

Summary


(HMA/SRJI)
An Albonese Royal Marine takes a firing position during exercise.

The Armed Services of the Crown Commonwealth of Regnum Albion are undoubtedly a force which has mastered the art of war over the past six centuries, combating foes and learning from their engagements in a way most traditional military's fail to do until decades after the conflict. Rather than fight the conventional war against an unconventional foe, the Albonese military command structure has allowed for the autonomous engagement of guerrilla fighters with just that: guerrilla fighters.

In this analysis, the research compiled will attempt to paint a picture on the current state of the Albonese armed services as a whole, and in more ways then one compare and contrast policies and real-world experiences that have shaped and defined other military's around the world, and examine these differences to that of the Albonese in an attempt to gauge the strengths and weaknesses of a small, unified fighting command.

Analysis

First, we will begin with an overview of the current state of the Albonese Armed Services. It is a small fighting force comprising of just over 120,000 professional soldiers, including reservists, which act to defend the Crown Commonwealth around the world. It is undeniable that the Armed Services of the Albonese is one of the most advanced and highly-trained services in the world, and given their numerical stature this is an exponentially important advantage over their enemies. Like all small military's around the world, they actively train to fight a numerically uphill battle and in that regard are abhorrently at a disadvantage, but they do indeed make up for that disadvantage by the quality training their soldiers receive as well as in the equipment they utilize.

The Albonese retain a strong sense of importance in every spectrum of command, from the General Staff to the Private whom is seen lying in dirt fighting the enemy in less than viable conditions. Likewise, the importance placed on equality and brotherhood within the services is admirable, and serves to better a unit's cohesiveness and combat effectiveness by allowing every individual the ability to trust one another in their abilities as well as in their humanity; this is another field where the Albonese place a great level of stress on themselves.

The three causes for the Albonese justification for war, of which being: Jus Ad Bellum (The Rules of Going to War), Jus In Bello (The Rules Within War), and Jus Post Bellum (The Rules at the End of War), encapsulate the three stages of a general armed conflict: The proliferation, the engagement, and the reconciliation. It is viable to believe that via these three requirements the Albonese attempt to distance themselves from any misconduct of their soldiers, or that in the event of a large conflict can claim unequivocally that they have entered it on the right side of history. All circumstances aside, these guidelines are admirable but may detract from the overall goal of the service's existence.

It is true that the reasons of going to war would most preferably be that of a logical and infallible cause, in which case the aforementioned guidelines would prove exact, but that is not always the case: if we are to take context from history, there have been multiple occasions whence a war has been proclaimed due to false information, media exaggeration, or other contextual events. That being said, the guidelines for a just war may not always be met, and to that end if the Albonese restrict their ability to wage conflict and or secure their national security abroad is tied only to the aforementioned casus belli, then they are at a severe disadvantage ideologically and strategically.

Likewise, the Albonese rely heavily on network-centric warfare, the now preferred method of waging the modern war. The Albonese have done well to establish a system which is effective, encompassing but frugal in its analysis of intelligence and its importance. To what can be perceived as the advantage of the Albonese armed services, they have realized, admitted and not even put resources into the futile goal of obtaining full spectrum dominance.¹ And, while they have admitted that fact, they have not given up on the ability to wage an effective conflict in which combined arms is a very prevalent tactic; however, we will address the aforementioned later in this analysis to outline a true flaw in the Albonese Armed Services.

The Unity of Command of the Albonese Armed Services can be called into question in this paper and it rightly should. The Albonese have adopted an unorthodox and non-traditional approach to the treatment of their Officers both in the field and within their units. Granted enormous levels of autonomy in the field, Officers are permitted to independently formulate plans and action as long as they are intended to complete the overall mission passed down to them by the upper echelons of the command. However, they are also given the right to - and even trained specifically to, "disobey certain orders as long as they accomplish the mission while retaining the intent of the original command"².

The simple fact that Officers are not only permitted to, but trained to, ignore the commands of their superiors in a time of war is severely detrimental to the operational capacity of this armed service and will only add to the level of dysfunction of the command as a whole and permit low morale to seep through the ranks of the service in a way which can be nothing but unacceptable. This policy permits Officers who may not like their superiors to actively, and legally, ignore their commands and circumvent their authority on matters to which they should not be doing so. While, in premise, it may seem a logical and morally justifiable contingency for complete flexibility in the field, it is one which, in practice, must be reviewed and called into question erroneously.

General Gordon R. Sullivan stated, in a way which expresses the overall intent of this policy and the ability of it to work effectively, that:

"The paradox of war in the Information Age is one of managing massive amounts of information and resisting the temptation
to overcontrol it. The competitive advantage is nullified when you try to run decisions up and down the chain of command.
All platoons and tank crews have real-time information on what is going on around them, the location of the enemy, and the
nature and targeting of the enemy's weapons system. Once the commander's intent is understood, decisions must be devolved
to the lowest possible level to allow these front line soldiers to exploit the opportunities that develop."

This quote by the General exemplifies just exactly what this policy is intended to do, but it is necessary for the Ministry of Defense to go over specific logs to determine whether or not this policy of autonomy is being used in the wrong way. It is indeed a necessity that front-line troops be capable of making autonomous decisions without repercussions in support of the mission, but the blatant disregard for the orders of superior officers can only add to dysfunction on many levels of the chain of command.

Seemingly, the Armed Services of this nation are more centered on the humane, morally correct functionality of engaging in cohesiveness rather than the ultimate end goal of waging and winning an armed conflict against enemies whom have no regard for the humane nor the morally correct nor the innocent. While it is admirable, and very welcomed, that all Albonese soldiers engage in Ethnicity training, ultimately the soldier's ability to feel empathetic towards the individuals they're fighting may or may not serve to the best of their abilities; while it may increase the capacity to win hearts and minds, it may detriment their intensity in combat and the productivity of a unit in completing a mission.

It should be noted that whether it is the style of the command or the dictation of the Crown that a lax and equal footing within the armed services be present, of which being officers being 'equal' to their subordinates, it has little place in a formalized military institution. It was said that Officers must, "earn the obedience of the lower ranks".³ This is a policy which is confusing at best and dysfunctional at its worst. It implicates the ability of NCO's and other Enlisted personnel to simply ignore the command of their Officers if they have not 'earned' their obedience; to what end is obedience earned and to what end is it not subjective? Where an Officer could have had enormous success in one unit he may find complete disrespect and insubordination in another. An Officer is not required to earn the obedience of his or her subordinates, rather he is to earn their respect.

Ultimately, the lax position of superiority in the command structure of this armed service may, in its final reality, act to destroy the combat effectiveness and Unity of Command that is required for a military unit to function acceptably and exceptionally. However, this may be offset by the high level of training and professionalism each and every soldier receives during their term in the service.

On average, most recruits spend - from the day they sign the enlistment papers to the day they exit training - over 3 years in training. While this serves to create a flexible, agile and strong soldier, it also creates a large bottleneck effect that prevents older personnel to be replaced by new, young soldiers in a timely fashion. This can be very hurtful to the recruitment process in times of war when the size of the military is looking to grow vastly, as from the time any one recruit applies it will take them three years to enter the active fighting force. This may or may not be a bottleneck your service is willing to accept.

Equipment, Systems and Organisation

The equipment of the Armed Services is exemplary. The modern, highly advanced and versatile equipment which is being utilized by the armed services is of the top of its class and unparalleled in its field. Notably, the service uses a caseless ammunition and rifle as the standard service rifle, which is very effective during combat situations. Likewise, the development of the Valkyrie network-centric warfare command system has also been noted as one of the most useful tools in the service's arsenal.

A centralized command where soldiers can gather and send information is very useful during combat and, while it may be delivering too much information to the soldier at once, it is effective in garnering active combat information and relaying that to soldiers so they may better obtain situation awareness and cohesiveness. However, the usefulness of lines of sight, trajectory arcs and other routes of progress is one which serves only to distract the soldier; in most situations, a line of sight will be readily seen as the soldier can use the items around them to determine if one is applicable, and likewise trajectories are most likely only applicable in a situation where the individual is unable to move from their position.

The organization of the armed services as a whole promotes individualism and selfishness. The division between the Surface Fleet and the Submariners may lead to decisive actions being taken where one may purposefully act to the detriment of another for personal gain or egotistic ideals. A unified Naval Command would be much better suited to face challenges both on the surface and below sea level. Likewise, it has been noted that Aircraft Carriers and Amphibious Assault Ships are commanded by people from the Fleet Air Arm, which is a very valuable choice.

The organizational structure of the Army is inevitably what may lead to dysfunction. While, in a grand strategy, not much attention whatsoever is placed on a Regimental level, there are policies which focus very much on the front-line soldier; however, the policy of focusing more on a Brigade rather than Regiments may lead to some levels of oversight. However, the strong flexibility of the Army in its ability to homogeneously engage enemy targets without major support logistically or via ordnance from other Brigades or a Support Division is extremely valuable and serves to the betterment of the Army as a whole, as it is not necessary to have nearly as many individuals engaged in the logistic ends of things rather than the fighting.

The flexibility of the Air Force must be maintained as well. To create a viable Combined Arms ability for your forces, it must be applicable that the air wings in certain regions be flexible to accept different types of aircraft to fulfill different roles in the event some are taken out of commission. The Air Force has done well to procure Air Superiority Fighters and a wide array of helicopters, and it is not our belief that these will serve to the detriment of an overall operation.

A field which needs to be addressed with the utmost importance is the organisation of the Mechanized Infantry and Armored Regiments of the Armed Services. These regiments do not have a large organisational resource nor is their overall goals, strategy and implications outlined within the resources provided to us. This is something that must be addressed immediately, as to wage an effective conflict the use of armor and mechanized infantry is necessary for maneuverability and fire-support on the company and platoon levels. The resources for an effective and strong armored division are visible, but the resources need to be allocated in the correct ways.

Conclusion

It is the conclusion of this report that the overall standing of the Regnum Albion Armed Services is in a strong stature which is formidable against any opponent. However, there are certain flaws within the system that must be addressed to fill gaps in the Command and operational effectiveness of the service which can act to belittle the work the men on the front do. Likewise, with a force so small and the utilization of equipment so advanced, that the budget restraints of the service must be looked at and increased. The service is taking use of very sophisticated equipment which acts to supplement the soldier's natural ability to wage war, but they are also extremely expensive.

The allocation of funds to up the military budget is necessary if the Armed Services are to keep their technological advantage over their neighbors. The maintenance of such advanced equipment cannot be upheld in their best state unless the funds are there to repair them and, without them, you may expect the depreciation of your military hardware to begin to effect your operational capabilities.

Overall, however, the Regnum Albion Armed Services are very well equipped and prepared for any conflict that may come their way.

Copyright 2014, Wright & Apollo

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El Cuscatlan: Militancy in Central America

18 February 4:27 GMT

Summary

Martinezism has paved the way in El Cuscatlan for the intense militarization of the nation which is currently underway in epic proportions. The nation has already flooded the international market with crude, cheap oil, and now the Cuadillo Silva has announced even more reforms to the military in an attempt to wage a col war with Lolloh, despite the already crippled state-run economy.

The regime has also begun the procurement of Russian arms, such as the Mi-28, Ka-52, T-90, and Kalashnikov's of varying types. Alongside these, the Cuadillo has at his disposal a new anti-ship ballistic missile, domestically produced, and along with it has threatened to actively, "engage every carrier which will come to South American shores".¹

Analysis

Cuadillo Silva is once again leading the people of El Cuscatlan to an end which he is not prepared to meet. The dictatorial regime - and we may call it that simply due to the fact that almost all privately-controlled businesses have since been absorbed into the state economic machine and, furthermore that: large militarization of the pseudo-communist nation has been elevated to almost U.S-Soviet proportions, following the imperialistic actions of Cuadillo Silva. The only reason why this type of cold war is even capable to the Cuscatlan economy is because they have no one they need to pay their debts to; all industry within the nation worth over 1.5NSD, or roughly 3.21 Golden Pesos, has been absorbed by the central Junta.

The perversion of Martinezism lies at the heart of this rising power's quest for global attention and infamy. While Cuadillo Martinez would never engage in openly hostile policy-making towards foreign powers, his successor Silva has no qualms in doing so. While the doctrine of Martinezism states clearly that, "[the] Military however should be used only as last resort,"² Silva's open quest to make El Cuscatlan the biggest power in the Central Americas is what has become the new-Martinez philosophy, and to that end it closely resembles Nazism; that the nation of Cuscatlan is above all others and the promotion of its people are of the utmost importance and thus they are deserving of international praise and attention.

The new post-Martinez regime in El Cuscatlan is undoubtedly a threat to world peace. Their inclination that the world will bow to their whims is unfounded and one which they have no military basis to fall upon: their military is utilizing decades-old technology in a fallible effort to seem like a strong and powerful nation, when in reality the Federation has no more an advantage over Lolloh than it does over its Caribbean counterparts in Cuba. Without the proper equipment, even the best trained soldiers will falter.

To that end, the Cuadillo has done well to arm his populace, but with the wrong things. Likewise, his development of a new anti-ship ballistic missile, the Minuano, is being hailed within the nation as the key to the destruction of its enemy and the trophy of rising domestic sciences and education. The missile, while not being tested publicly, is rumored to have achieved speeds of Mach 10 - which are highly unlikely given the nation's probably budget for a missile program and the level of education, time and resources necessary to develop a weapon of that caliber - and is most likely a modified Medium Range Ballistic Missile acquired by allies and reprogrammed for anti-ship roles.

The estimated range on the Minuano is approximately 1,920 km, and utilizes a combination of over-the-horizon radars, satellites and UAV's to track and engage enemy ships. The system is being called 'El Comandente' within the upper echelons of the regime, and has not been questioned in its abilities nor in its effectiveness given the highly experimental combination of tracking equipment the Cuscatlanian government is taking use of.

In a show of force, as well as in a test of strength to the regime's power over the people of the nation, Cuadillo Silva called for a rally in the nation's capital to which an estimated one million people attended.³ Ultimately, it is unclear whether these people came willingly or whether they were given incentive by government officials to come. It is not unheard of for governments to pay its citizens to attend rallies.⁴

It is not unknown that the military doctrine of El Cuscatlan was developed by former Cuadillo Martinez as well as a Chinese defector who later fought for the Japanese, who was then exiled, General Baltastar Tojo. Tojo was placed in command of the nation's armed forces and lead them to victory in the 2000 Cuscatlani-Corugwayan war, when Martinez began his rise to political power and Martinezism swept the nation. The points of their military doctrine, which had proven quite effective, were these: Militarization of Society, Stronghold-Based Country, Cadre-Based Military, and the constant modernization of military equipment.

In more than one field, the regime has succeeded. However, it remains to be seen whether or not these tactics can remain effective in the 21st Century, which may be tested if the cold war between Cuscatlan and Lolloh evolves into an open and armed conflict. Even so, the military tactics of their doctrine are quite out-dated. There is no call for network-centric warfare, combined arms, mechanized infantry or cyber warfare, and this may very well act towards the detriment of the Cuscatlanian forces if they engage with a more modern fighting force.

Forecast: Proliferation or Reconciliation?

There is a very unlikely chance that Cuadillo Silva will back down from his threats in engaging Lollohsian forces in open and armed conflict. In a post-Martinez Cuscatlan, the rise of the state machine and the promotion of the countrymen over all others is one which will supersede any policy change or willingness to back down. Especially since the introduction of the Minualo, the Cuscatlanian government officials are more than confident in their ability to defend their shores from attack, and whether they have good reason to be has yet to be proven.

Likewise, the war on the homefront is more than going well for the Junta: the people are absorbing the massive propaganda efforts the regime keeps using to their advantage,^5-6-7 and is more than willing to continue those efforts in the name of the greater good for the country.

It is peculiar given the strong anti-Communist doctrine within the heart of Martinezism, but ever increasingly the post-Martinez Cuscatlan is increasingly going down a road of state-controlled raw materials and agricultural goods, as well as a strong militarized nation which backs down to no one but themselves on their own terms, much like their friends in the former Soviet Union. It is probable that Cuadillo Silva will continue communistic policy changes, but whether or not these changes will incite a new strongman or faction within the military is yet to be seen; the variable lies in how much the military government is willing to secede from the original Martinez doctrine.

The stability of the nation, as of now, is not questionable; the large political rallies denouncing the Lollohsian government are proof enough that the people are on Silva's side, but in that stability lies uncertainty: even if the people are willing to support their strongman, the same can be said of any strongman and, to that end, if a faction of the Cuscatlanian military rises to overthrow Silva, it would be very unlikely that any attempt would be made to stop the conflict with Lolloh, although other, domestic policy changes would inevitably be imminent.

It seems that the people of Cuscatlan appreciate a tough figurehead, but whether or not that will outweigh the change in their cult-like ideology of Martinezism awaits to be seen. The shift in doctrine could very well lead to Silva's political downfall.

Copyright 2014, Wright & Apollo

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TaH-29: Riysa's Newest Contender

21 February 12:30 GMT

Summary

The TaH-29 Daqanoush (Arabic: دقنوش, English: Shrike) is Riysa's newest fighter aircraft, which has been designed to become the nation's front-line air superiority fighter plane. Manufactured by the Tamam-Hinnawi Design Bureau, which constitutes the oldest and most successful aviation manufacturer within the nation, the aircraft has seen combat before and proven itself adequate under the right circumstances.

The question remains, however, is this: is the TaH-29 versatile enough to encompass the wide variety of roles its being asked to perform, and to that end, can it compete with the newer generation aircraft the other nations of Astyria are flying? The aircraft is not new to the services, but with the introduction of the newest and up-to-date variant of the Daqanoush, the TaH-29T, is relatively untested in combat scenarios and may still hold the burdens of its forebears.

Analysis

Firstly, the examination of the newest models capabilities, compared to that of the original 1988 models must be obtained to better understand where the aircraft originated from and where it is today. To its credit, the aircraft has come a long way since its inception. It has seen many scenarios which called on its abilities and it has done well to succeed in those endeavors, experiencing an average loss of 2 to 6. However, the modern encapsulation of the plane has done well to remain a vital piece of the Riysian Air Forces and an integral part to their air defense strategies.

It is logically unforeseeable that the aircraft will be discontinued anytime soon, although the TaH-29A variants were discontinued, save for trainer aircraft.¹ Where many nations opt for a variety of aircraft to compromise their national defense needs, the Riysians have taken a more unorthodox approach, by pinning their fate in the skies on a singular model; whether this has been the right choice remains to be seen, as the entrance of Riysan political power to the region of Astyria tempts shifting that doctrine.

Nevertheless, the aircraft has done moderately well on international sales. While one of the international buyers was in-fact a Private Military Company,² it has also been sold to the nation of Hutanjia, who purchased 48 ex-Riysian TaH-29As,³ where they were used in combat operations against UFF rebel forces whom were backed by the Cardwith Islands and Falkasia. The combat records of the aircraft are almost exemplary, but they have been plagued in the past by maintenance problems in humid climates.

The capabilities of the newest version of the Daqanoush are not necessarily all-encompassing of an air superiority fighter. Rather, the aircraft has been modified so severely that it now acts as the general-purpose fighter of the military, acting as an air superiority fighter as well as a multi-role fighter aircraft. It was designed under the phrase, "multiple-role air superiority fighter", which leaves its true purposes ambiguous at best when digging down to the fine details of the aircraft. It may seem like a perfect solution to an imperfect problem: putting the necessities of multiple fields in the aerospace warfare doctrine in one convenient place, where maintenance costs can be cut severely. However, this is not the case whatsoever. The diversity of the aircraft are exactly what may lead to its downfall in foreign theaters where it is pitted against aircraft which are specifically designed to the task of air dominance.

The aircraft was designed with canard-delta wings, which promote a high stall angle, robustness, lower maintenance costs, and substantial internal space for fuel and avionics while utilizing canards to prevent the significant dissipation of energy during a high-energy turns, as well as promoting lower minimum landing lengths and increasing flight speed. However, these attributes do not specifically act in the best interest of air dominance. While the canards may serve to counteract the detrimental side effects of the more cost-effective delta-wing design, they do not fully solve the problem; canards decrease the problem, but they do not remove them.

The electronics of the aircraft are suitable, but may not be enough. The aircraft utilizes a very ambiguous variant of the AESA radar system, the R-19 X-Band AESA Radar.⁴-⁵ Purportedly, it reaches a maximum of 320 kilometers against all targets (though it is unknown what target acquisition system the aircraft utilizes), and can actively detect stealth targets. Additionally, it is reported that it retains the ability to track up to 35 targets and engage 10.

This system is an upgrade from the original R-11 X-band AESA radar initially outfitted with the TaH-29 in 1988. Likewise, the variants of the plane have been given regular updates of the Khanjar defensive aids package,⁶ which is Riysa's main air defense package for all of its aircraft. The system acts as a traditional system does, offering protection from missile, laser, and radar-based threats. Though the system is in high use among all of Riysa's aircraft, the vast majority of information is highly classified and as such is inaccessible.⁷

The aircraft has done well to upgrade its countermeasures alongside those of its international counterparts to mostly electronic countermeasures, as well as infrared countermeasures, which are utilized via the aforementioned Khanjar system, and as such the specific types of countermeasures being utilized is unknown, however it can be assumed that they are most likely flare dispensers, radio frequency jamming, DIRCM, and some type of active cancellation system. Despite the secrecy and its high level of use within the Riysian forces, it remains to be determined whether or not the plane has what it takes to uphold Riysian sovereignty and air superiority in the skies of Astyria.

Compare & Contrast: The Aircraft of Astyria

Firstly, it should be noted immediately that we will not be examining the air forces of Astyria's nations verbatim. We will examine the air superiority fighters that Riysian pilots are most likely to encounter in combat scenarios, and to that end determine whether or not they would be severely, moderately, or unprepared in their ability to combat them effectively. We will begin with a table which compares specific attributes of multiple aircraft (this list does not denote domestic design/manufacture):

Aircraft	Max Takeoff Weight	Powerplant	RCS	Max Speed	Combat Radius	Armament
TaH-29T (Riysa)	27,000kg	x2 Tayyar MTT21 afterburning turbofan	~0.522	Mach 2.4	1,700km	x1 MRAB 32mm autocannon w/200 rounds 14 hardponts
Su-27 (Blackhelm Confederacy)	37,450kg	2 × Saturn/Lyulka AL-31F turbofans	N/A	Mach 2.35	3,530km	1 × 30 mm GSh-30-1 cannon with 150 rounds 4,430 kg on 10 external pylons Up to 6 × medium-range AA missiles R-27, 2 × short-range heat-seeking AA missiles R-73
F-22 (GHawkins)	38,000kg	2 × Pratt & Whitney F119-PW-100 Pitch Thrust vectoring turbofans	N/A	2.25	759km	1× 20 mm M61A2 Vulcan 6-barreled Gatling cannon, 480 rounds 4× under-wing pylon stations
M.Cs 82 (Aquitayne)	40,500kg	2 x Aeon Power Systems TF.201-200 thrust-vectoring turbofans	N/A	Mach 2.2+	3,650km	2 × Model 306 30x150mm single-barrelled revolver cannons (300 rounds) 15 Hardpoints

This is only a small portion of the air forces within Astyria, but they are the most prevalent and encompass the widest range of variable aircraft, as many nations use some of the same airplanes. This table can show us the more overarching abilities of the most commonplace aircraft of the region of Astyria, and as such from it we can review the operational capabilities in combat to one another. It should be noted that the Riysan TaH-29B-2 aircraft took part in a mock combat peacekeeping exercise with the NEDAF (Neu Engollon Defense Air Force), and flew against JAS-39 Gripen and UNADS F-29 Warrior aircraft respectively. The results were a particularly interesting 1.67 kill/loss ratio.

These results are especially surprising due to the Daqanoush's development in the late 80's and the next-generation aircraft (F-29), who's first flight was not conducted until 24 years later. This shows the versatility of the Riysan electronic suite, although there is not much information on it available. However, when digging deeper into the data, it was shown that the TaH-29B3 experienced a 1 to 2 kill/loss ratio against the F-29, which seems much more logical than an overall 1.67 ratio given the F-29's much more advanced electronic suite.

Overall, however, the Riysan aircraft, given its age, fares well compared to its counterparts. It can be expected that while it may not seemingly be a hard adversary in the air to foreign military's, it should be considered a viable threat and one which has kept up with 21st Century aerospace warfare doctrine in a way which retains old habits but innovates them into new action. The most versatile adversary of the TaH-29 is most likely the Confederacy's Su-27, which is severely more versatile than the TaH-29; likewise, the Aquitaynian M.Cs 82 'Illusion' aircraft is an adversary which should be taken very seriously by Riysian General Staff, due to its high maneuverability and speed. The F-22 Raptor is a lesser threat to an extent, given the Riysian claim that the R-19 AESA radar can pick up stealth aircraft; while the F-22 is designed to outfight numerical disadvantages, the advance of Riysian technology matches the aircraft for speed and doubles the F-22's combat radius, allowing the TaH-29 to remain in the field of battle much longer.

Interestingly, the old dog may indeed have new tricks.

Forecast: Ascend or Smolder?

Overall, it has become very apparent that the latest version of the Daqanoush, the TaH-29T, and the still-in-development TaH-29h, are more than capable of fighting adversaries internationally within the skies of Astyria, and abroad. It's updated avionics suites and engines allow it to match speeds of other aircraft, such as the F-22 and F-29, but retain other advantages that those aircraft do not, which allow it to gain an upper hand in aerial combat which contribute directly to its unforeseen success against more modern, next-generation aircraft.

The long ferry range, maximum speed of Mach 2.4, and various abilities for armaments all contribute to the aircraft's ability to combat its foes effectively in the 21st Century; likewise, the naval variants allow the reach of the aircraft to be deployed even further, which in all cases can only be beneficial.

Additionally, the mass use of the singular models has allowed the Riysian Air Force to severely lower maintenance costs, which is exceptional. The overabundance of spare parts and availability of the aircraft have retained the fleet's young age, and allows the service to easily maintain the aircraft in combat situations where other air forces may not have the same luxury. However, this is not to say that the aircraft is not without its flaws.

It is known that the aircraft is intended for multi-role situations as well as air superiority. It should be investigated as to whether two variants of the aircraft can assume the individual roles, for simple reasons: the advantages of one role serve to the disadvantage of the other and, when in a situation that demands the utmost ability of the aircraft, can lead to catastrophic failures.

Ultimately, however, the TaH-29T has a high success probability within Astyria, and will undoubtedly serve to the best of its abilities as a formidable foe against whomever may encounter it.

Copyright 2014, Wright & Apollo

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YSR, Plätteisen Adler & Astyria: Is Escalation Unavoidable?

21 April 23:18 GMT

Summary

The Yellowstar Republic has embroiled northern-Lorecia, the central continental plate in the region of Astyria, in a conflict over the sovereignty and self-determination of the small state of Plätteisen Adler. The mostly socialist nation has currently dislodged the ruling monarch of Glislandia, pushed to the border of Nouvel Ecosse, and brought the two rivaling blocs of Astyria head-to-head: the Eastern Astyrian Treaty Alliance, and the Astyrian Trade Organisation.

While it is true that both entities are, in their constitutional definition, acting and 'preserving' the peace of Astyria and its sovereign states, they are increasingly waging more open and hostile conflict with one another; what began as proxy wars across the southern deserts of the region and suspected cyber attacks on civilian infrastructure are increasingly being brought into the more public eye. The question now, is not whether these blocs will collide - but when.

Analysis

First, we must analyze the current status of the northern-central-Astyrian continent. In its form, the continent retains a contiguous conglomeration of sovereign states which are, in the current tense, vying for power over the northern hemisphere. The invasion of Plätteisen Adler by the Yellowstar Republic highlights the vilification of the socialist state's attempts to rectify what they perceive as westernized propaganda and capitalist agendas for the subjugation of the plateau. While, to a more modernized and - admittedly, westernized version of thinking - this may not be a crisis, to a socialist and nationalist state such as the YSR, it is exactly what begins wars.

Nouvel Ecosse seized the plateau in 1964 after a bloody conflict with the YSR, to which the latter quite obviously lost. After the conflict, the military backing of the nation was more than severely detriment and lead to a decade of lax military funding and the foregoing of conventional military training for a much easier conscript-on-applicant basis. As the YSR was ill-equipped to engage in any type of warfare or subterfuge after the conflict, be it propaganda, intelligence, etc., the NEIA (Nouvel Ecosse Intelligence Agency), which is known for its relevance in propaganda and other human intelligence operations, immediately engaged the population of the plateau with sympathetic materials designed to humanize the northern occupying force.

The problems stemming from an underfunded, unkempt and overall unorganized fighting force is what would lead to the remodernization efforts seen in YSR during the late 1970's to early 1980's. These efforts would not only revitalize the fighting force, but it would allow YSR to begin preperations for the conflict it is now successfully waging in Plätteisen Adler; much like the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 compared to their seizure of the Crimea in 2014 after Euromaidan, the Yellowstar Republic too modernized and severely alternated their fighting strategy and doctrine to promote a more flexible and modernized continuum.

The Yellowstar Republic did well to sew dissent within Plätteisen Adler, with the Rally of Veterans Slaughter¹. Once it was perceived that the safety of the citizenry of the plateau was in jeopardy, there was no more valid a casus belli than that for the Republic to step in. We can see from the swift action of the Republican Air Forces that the seizure of the airspace over Plätteisen Adler contributed greatly to their success in an overall combined-arms campaign. Even using somewhat dated equipment, a superior strategy can be seen throughout the YSR's advance towards the Ecossian border, and that strategy is ultimately what lead to the republic's success in this campaign.

However, due to the unprecedented severity of the conflict and its implications for not only northern-Lorecia but the rest of Astyria, the prompt and seemingly-necessary intervention from the Eastern Astyrian Treaty Alliance as well as the Astyrian Trade Organisation has been the only show of cooperation since their establishment; elsewhere around the region, the two are actively engaging in increasingly dangerous levels of subterfuge.

Subterfuge is something to which the YSR has implemented very well in its current conflict, and has acted efficiently enough to put the ruling monarch of Glislandia into hiding. Reportedly, the young king is taking refuge somewhere in Nouvel Ecosse, but these reports are too few and unreliable to draw any type of foundational conclusion. Even so, the Glislandian royalty will not be hard-pressed to return to their homeland once hostilities have ended; while it is true the forces acting against the Republic are willful to establish a long-lasting peace and return the continent to the way it was before, it is not likely that they will press the reformation of the Glislandian throne.

As Samuel Reich, the King of the Constitutional Monarchy of Aquitayne and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has stated on numerous occasions and via foreign policy documents,¹ there is a strong perception of royalty around the region that westernized Astyrian democracies wish to eradicate, or severely diminish, the number of Astyrian monarchs. This has lead to foreign policy documents such as the previously cited Reich Credenda, which state unceremoniously that:

Alongside this stand against the two giants of Astyria, the monarchies of this region must too prevent the ideals of
such nations from removing us from their 21st Century mindset. The monarchies of Astyria are a dying breed in
the modern era; they stand divided on the global stage and appear weak to their neighbors, that they are the bygones
of an epoch long past. It is indeed the belief of these Democracies that the Kings and Queens of Astyria are to be discarded
as the last legitimate dictators of the modern age; that they would cast aside our humble and rich origins for the
replication of a republican theme of Roman romanticism is a desire all modern governments of Astyria wish of us.

This, in and of itself, highlights the entirety of the revised Aquitaynian foreign policy doctrine and is seen through the shifts of visits by the King himself to the Seraphic Empire² and the Kingdom of Haguenau³. There is a fear settling among the royalty of Astyria in the present age, that their services as monarchs are of no use in a progressive era, and that their stature is no longer of great standing; rather, they are frowned upon as a last legitimate refuge from the free process of electoral decisiveness which stems from true democracy. Even if this ideology is false, it is severely unlikely any democratic state acting on behalf of Nouvel Ecosse, and by extension Glislandia, would re-install a monarch to the throne.

The likelihood of the allied states backing Nouvel Ecosse investing themselves into this conflict exponentially are low. However, this is not to say they will not become invested whence prompted. It is the nature of all states to begin conflict-response with proportionate action; if the attributes of a single division are required then no more than a singular division will be dispatched. Unfortunately, once that division has been destroyed by the opposition forces, a pathos will begin to engulf the people of that state and a call to arms will most likely be called by the political sphere of any nation which has lost substantial amounts of lives in a conflict. It must be balanced, then, by the Yellowstar Republic as to whether the complete destruction, or simple deterrence, of foreign forces is to be antiquated.

It is without a doubt that within the coming months, if not weeks, the allied forces of Astyria which are actively participating in this frontier will begin an assault on the Yellowstar Republic for the reclamation of Plätteisen Adler. Not only was the invasion of the aforesaid state highly and widely condemned by the various states of the region, it has been actively opposed by such states as Nouvell Ecosse, the Blackhelm Confederacy, the state of Riysa, and many others. While in the mind of a post-Marxist ideologist, even with modernized cosmopolitan ways of thought, a casus belli which extends only to the self-interest of a singular state will not be upheld in the eyes of the world nor will it be justifiable outside the courts of the state which wishes to remain just; rather, it in and of itself acts to the state's complete detriment for its ethos in establishing justification for any invasion.

However, even in the high likelihood of a counter-assault into Plätteisen Adler by united forces in northern Astyria, there is little chance those forces would press onward into the Yellowstar Republic, for multiple reasons. The first and paramount reason is simply because the Yellowstar Republic has not engaged Nouvel Ecosse on its own soil, nor has it made any attempts to invade the aforementioned state other than in the reclamation of the plateau; this nullifies the justification for counter-forces to engage the YSR on its own soil. The premise of a longer, costlier, deadlier and taxing war is not on the minds of the constituents in the states backing Nouvel Ecosse. Rather, a swift, justified and proportionate end to the crisis is to be sought, rather than embroil any nation in the long and tedious efforts of a full-scale invasion of a state as large as the Republic.

If, in the event of a successful reclamation of Plätteisen Adler by allied forces, it is unlikely the Yellowstar Republic will be seeing any helping hand during the peace process. It is more likely that the severity of the consequences for a failed campaign for the Republic would be on the scale of the Treaty of Versailles; while the conflict has not caused a World War, it is in the interests of the allied states supporting Nouvel Ecosse to deter any future aggressor anywhere in the region from invading another state. To do so, they must make an example of the readily available product: the Yellowstar Republic. If the YSR does not want to be broken economically and ideologically, and perhaps even forced to open its markets to western investors, it must seek a victorious end to the conflict it has - in its own right - begun.

Forecast: Rise of a Titan, or the Next Odysseus?

It awaits to be seen how the present situation across northern Astyria will end. While it is notable that the Yellowstar Republic has already gained extensive holdings and success in their current campaign, the onslaught of actual soldiery - that being the trained and skilled forces they are to now encounter - will be the defining cornerstone to the reality of the status of the Republic's armed forces.

If the Yellowstar Republic can prevent an escalation in hostilities, or force ATO and EATA forces to engage one another instead of themselves, then the outcome of their campaign may not have been for naught. However, if they engage foreign soldiers to an extent where the investment of that nation's time, resources and lives is too extensive, they may be waging a new battle which they cannot fathom winning.

Ultimately, the YSR has a very delicate balance to carry as it carries on the next phases of its campaign to capture and hold Plätteisen Adler. It is not unforeseeable that the nations opposing the socialist nation will do everything in their power to prevent the seizure of the plateau and by extension the eradication of the YSR armed services, but equally it is not unforeseeable that these forces will act only to eliminate the current military presence in the plateau and cease all hostilities through some type of demilitarized zone.

Escalation is the more foreseeable future, but it awaits to be seen just how far these countries are willing to go for the reclamation and freedom of Plätteisen Adler.

Copyright 2014, Wright & Apollo

[Aquitayne]

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Wright & Apollo's 2016 Power Rankings

September 23, 2016 | 12:17 GMT

Summary


(Ministry of Defense, Aquitayne - Department of the Air Force)
Two Aquitaynian M.Cs 82 Illusion fighters patrol the skies over the Western Tundra in the autumn of this year.

Wright & Apollo: Global Intelligence is proud to bring the world, and specifically Astyria, our forecasts and intelligence-oriented findings on the current power dynamics going on throughout the region. This year, more geopolitical players have entered the stage and movements on our list have been interesting to watch to say the least. The recent crisis regarding the Western Tundra have highlighted growing and shrinking influences throughout the region, and precisely why some nations rise to extraordinary heights and why some nations crumble under the weight of their own ambition.

Below are some of the most notable changes on the rankings, both going up and down the chart - and why we've made these decisions. The general power rankings are determined on a variety of factors, the most important ones being: military strength, economic health, power projection within the year, and diplomatic clout. All of these factors help determine the health and strength of a nation in variably different ways.

Top 5

1. Kobolis
Kobolis retained their number one position in the region this year, even through a terrorist attack which led to the detonation of a nuclear device on Kobolan soil. The nation has been rocked by the devastating attack and, indeed, has taken a less-active approach to international affairs, save for a harsh campaign against ALA insurgents in Kamalbia in the wake of the attacks. The country is still the leading member of the Astyrian Trade Organization, and retains the largest military force in Astyria. The nation has shown no signs of slowing down or rescinding much, if any, of its international presence and likewise has shown no signs of economic downturn or significant financial loss due to the attacks. In fact, the Kobolis economy is doing extremely well under the circumstances, and though the outlook for the nation is uncertain in the wake of such devastating attacks, it remains the most powerful country in Astyria.

2. Blackhelm Confederacy
The Blackhelm Confederacy retained their number two position in the region this year, as increasing tensions between the Confederacy and other nations remained somewhat neutral throughout the year. The country has been dealing with an insurgency in Kamalbia and recently finished a conflict in Terre Azure, and has seen fresh interest in the inner workings of New Pangus as a sort of pet project of the EATA. The Confederacy has maintained its international presence, ensuring that its strategic bombing capabilities and fighter response times remain some of the best in the region. Indeed, over half of Astyria falls under the Confederacy's nuclear strike umbrella from only two air stations. The Confederacy is bolstering its military strength through consistent equipment upgrades, which is highlighted by a recent announcement of a procurement order for an additional 100 PAK FA's by 2018. The Confederacy shows no signs of slowing down its growth and its economy remains strong, and it remains the second most powerful nation in Astyria.

3. Dangish Empire
The Dangish Empire held onto their number three position within Astyria this year, after strong discussions between the strength of the Dangish compared to Symphonia. Ultimately, the Dangish Empire retained their third place position due to the fact that they have increased their military presence across the region this year, as well as the fact that their economy is doing excellently. The Dangish Ministry of Defense has negotiated for bases inside of New Pangus, Astyria's newest state, and has likewise incorporated their territorial holding of Cape Feldman in Teudallum. Additionally, the Dangish Ministry of Defense has allocated funds for a new ballistic missile defense program and upgrade, which will significantly enhance their ability to neutralize nuclear threats from around the region. After the show of force the Dangish Empire displayed during late 2013, they have continued to solidify their place as a strong contender and important part of the workings across the Mare Ferum, and especially in matters with respect to Insula Fera. It is because of this growth and military dominance that the Dangish Empire retains their place as the third most powerful nation in Astyria.

4. Symphonia
The Empire of Symphonia stayed stagnant in their fourth place position this year, after a devastating terrorist attack on the Symphonian Congress left the country crippled and in months of mourning. The special elections that had to be called in conjunction with a complete shutoff of Symphonian military resources to Insula Fera meant that Symphonia was no longer as active of a participant in geopolitical affairs as it once had been. Confederate fighter sorties probing the Symphonian air defense system continued, and Symphonian pilots continued to meet the challenge, but otherwise the Symphonian military has, for all intents and purposes, been relegated since the 2/27 attacks to homeland operations, leaving the bulk of the fighting to Aquitaynian and EATA forces. If measured as a joint unit of the United Kingdom, most analysts agree that Aquitayne and Symphonia would squeak the Dangish Empire out of their third place position in the region, however, since the unique nature of the United Kingdom dictates that both are still sovereign nations, Symphonia retains their place as the fourth strongest nation in Astyria.

5. ViZion
ViZion retained their fifth place position this year, in spite of their absence from international affairs. A short border skirmish with their northern neighbor Bhormakaro left many analysts and political leaders throughout the region wondering if the ViZionese giant had finally woken up, but it was not to be. The economic strength of the nation continues to remain unparalleled throughout the region, and though the government lacks international influence militarily, it still holds great clout economically. ViZion was visibly absent from the sanctions that were imposed on Romberg in respect to the Western Tundra crisis this year, which left some investors still confident in the Rombergian Krona. Ultimately, however, ViZion has not gained any influence in the region this year, but has rather maintained their influence and ensured that their standing within the region has not been forgotten. Because of their strong economic standing and health, ViZion retains the place of fifth most powerful nation in Astyria.

Forecast: Nations to Watch

8. Aquitayne ▲1 (Nikolia)
The Constitutional Monarchy of Aquitayne has, this year, moved past the longtime holder of the eight most powerful nation in the region, Nikolia, to take their place. Aquitayne, though seven times smaller than Nikolia, has flexed not only its geopolitical muscles, but its diplomatic and military muscles as well. Aquitayne was involved in three different crisis in 2016, namely the Aswickan Civil War, the Bhormakaro Border Crisis, and the largest one, the Western Tundra Crisis, which remains ongoing. These almost simultaneous military crisis, in conjunction with a 25,000 personnel troop surge in the middle of the summer, highlight Aquitayne's military flexibility and power projection abilities. Additionally, Aquitayne's economy remains strong, and the nation has become an even more active member of the international community. Aquitayne lead the call for sanctions to be imposed against the United Realms of Romberg, while also seeing that the nation's $190 billion NSD Aerial Re-invigoration Program (ARP) was successful. Ultimately, this year, Aquitayne has grown its international presence and has shown the region that it deserves to be the eighth most powerful nation in Astyria.

13. Romberg ▼2 (Zitru, Cassonne)
The United Realms of Romberg have dropped from 11th most powerful nation in Astyria to 13th, with Zitru taking their old position. The United Realms of Romberg have been embroiled in turmoil this year, being the direct recipients of numerous sanctions packages and military demands due to the Rombergian claim on the Western Tundra, which Kaiser Johan Lenesov VII pushed this year. Romberg is now the target of sanctions programs fromover 16 independent nations, which has rocked the Rombergian economy deeply. The economic damage, in conjunction with TARP demands that the Rombergians leave the Western Tundra immediately with threats of war have left the Rombergians with little options and no wiggle room on how to best handle the situation. Their allies in the Eternal Accords of the Three Crowns (EATC) seem reluctant to join their ally in their endeavor to annex the Western Tundra, and it remains to be seen how Romberg comes out of this crisis. Because of the fall in economic gains and facing a war with little support, Romberg has fallen two places to being the thirteenth most powerful nation in Astyria.

12. Cassonne ▲1 (Romberg)
The Republic of Cassonne, or also known as the Seraphic Republic, moved up one position this year to rise above Romberg in direct correlation with the Western Tundra Crisis. Cassonne, this year, has joined the Tel Al-Riyah Pact (TARP), which has solidified its international presence in the wake of a devastating terrorist attack on its government. There were concerns across the region that a coup may occur, but seemingly never came. Instead, Chancellor Proulx took power in the nation and began leading the country on a war-path. Analysts are closely monitoring the leader's response to the terrorist attacks, but he seems to be capitalizing on the tragedy in a big way - by reinvigorating the Cassonnese people to stop terror and aggressors in their tracks, having demanded Rombergian withdrawal from the Western Tundra not long after their entrance into the Tel Al-Riyah Pact. The path Chancellor Proulx is taking the country, coupled with their opening of Naval Station Wausa in Aquitayne, and the nation's excellent economic record for the fiscal year, has moved the Republic of Cassonne up one place to become the twelfth most powerful nation in Astyria.

24. Falkasia ▲2 (Serretes, Andamonia)
Falkasia has moved up two positions this year to claim the spot as the twenty-fourth most powerful nation in Astyria. This jump in positions by two places is driven mostly be the Falkasian handling of the Gragastavian government and their quick and decisive ability to engage and destroy enemy communications and infrastructure. While Falkasia does not actively engage in international politics, it does retain a strong domestic arms industry and is willing to project its power to its close neighbors to ensure its sovereignty is upheld. A strong economic nation, Falkasia's industry has been growing for the past five years with no signs of slowing down, and has had a strong fiscal year. Falkasia is also situated in a geographically advantageous position, which allows it to - if it so chose - dictate some type of terms and agreements with Lorecian neighbors to ensure its own national security. It is because of this show of force and the potential that Falkasia holds that it is now the twenty-fourth most powerful nation in Astyria.

27. Aswick ▲3 (Aurora Confederacy, Earent, Noordenstaat)
Aswick has been on a tumultuous ride this year, with civil war breaking out in the early summer months. The nation, while small, has moved up three positions this year in direct response to this war, and the support it was given by its close friend, former colonial master, and ally, Aquitayne. The nation, as a whole, was split roughly down the middle by Darian rebels since the late 1970's, and after a few border skirmishes, the government decided that the time to take action was now and launched a full-scale invasion of Daria. The conflict lasted roughly two months, and saw the validity of the Aswickan Guarantee of 1964 to be upheld, signalling to the nation that Aswick is not alone. Additionally, Aswick cristened its first supercarrier this year, making its power projection capabilities within eastern Astyria just beginning. This, coupled with strong economic gains in the last fiscal year and a new, brighter outlook on internal Aswickan politics, has Aswick rising four places in the Astyrian power rankings.

49. Bhormakaro ▼4 (Kawalawi, Polarus, Nynorsk Ostlijord, Jafala)
The Republic of Bhormakaro has fallen significantly this year, lowering itself to the forty-ninth most powerful nation in Astyria, falling four places. This fall is precipitated by their challenging of ViZion in early 2016, with border skirmishes and other aggressive actions. The nation vowed to protect the country from "ViZionese aggressors", but ultimately failed to do so. When an Aquitaynian naval vessel was engaged in the ViZionarian Strait, war broke out across Lorecia which ultimately saw the crippling of Bhormakaran infrastructure, military capabilities, and political influence across the continent. The end result is a crippled Bhormakaran state that has little to no economic gains through the fiscal year, and which has seen staggering amounts of domestic crisis with direct correlations to the war, including a lack of basic necessities such as food, toiletries, and clothing for its people. This, coupled with the continued closing of the Bhormakaro-Aquitaynian border, has left Bhormakaro in no position to have any major influence on Astyrian affairs, and leaves it as the forty-ninth most powerful nation in Astyria.

Full List

The full list of Astyrian Power Rankings can be found below:

1. Kobolis
2. Blackhelm Confederacy
3. Dangish Empire
4. Symphonia
5. ViZion
6. Caprica
7. Riysa
8. Aquitayne ▲1
9. Nikolia ▼1
10. Jarridia
11. Zitru ▲1
12. Cassonne ▲1
13. Romberg ▼2
14. Terre des Gaules
15. Trellin
16. Nouvel Ecosse
17. Stretta
18. Ionicus ▲1
19. Aztec National League ▼1
20. Neu Engollon
21. Yellow Star Republic
22. Kyashi ▲1
23. Woodstead ▼1
24. Falkasia ▲2
25. Andamonia ▼1
26. Cadenza ▲1
27. Aswick ▲3
28. Serretes ▼2
29. Noordennstaat ▼1
30. Earent ▼1
31. Aurora Confederacy ▼1
32. Heideland
33. Novella Romagna
34. Austrog
35. New Pangus
36. Glisandia ▼2
37. Fyngaria
38. Kelonna
39. Smertolina
40. Haguenau
41. Thomaion ▲1
42. Caranad ▼1
43. Scottopian Isles ▲1
44. Bungussi ▼1
45. Kawalawi ▲3
46. Polarus ▲3
47. Nynorsk Ostlijord ▲3
48. Jafala ▲3
49. Bhormakaro ▼4
50. Terra Azure
51. Costa de Ouro ▲1
52. Kamalbia ▼1
53. San Joaquin Valley
54. Red River ▲1
55. Nova Deseret ▼1
56. Plattesian Adler
57. Cote de Cuivre
58. Maqtajer

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