US GENERAL ELECTION MEGA-THREAD II: Clinton vs. Trump

[The United Territories of Providence]

The United States of America is currently undergoing an election to decide who the 45th President of the United States will be. On the Republican side, after a tumultuous primary battle which involved 17 candidates, Donald Trump emerged victorious and has clinched the nomination of the GOP, much to the chagrin of the party establishment. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has locked up her party's nomination after staving off an unexpectedly strong primary challenge from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. They enter this election as the most unpopular nominees of any party in the history of polling, and remain divisive figures who present two very different visions for the United States. Trump with his America First Policy and "Make America Great Again" philosophy vs Clinton's commitment to expanding on the legacy of President Obama while adopting more progressive reforms from Bernie Sanders. Hillary is the odds on favorite to win in November, but given the anger of the electorate and unpredictable nature of this cycle...nothing is guaranteed. It is also worth noting that Gary Johnson has been nominated by the Libertarian Party, and stands a reasonable chance of reaching a threshold to receive federal funds in the next election cycle, and he could perhaps enter the debates and change the nature of the race. Johnson represents a third option for Americans who are unhappy with the choices of the two major parties, and he will be present on every state ballot (unlike Jill Stein). This has been described as the most consequential election in a lifetime. Whatever the outcome, America must make a choice.

Personally, #ImWithHer. But if you're on the TrumpTrain or you're FeelingTheJohnson or you're feeling more like JillNotHill or something like BernieOrBust or NeverTrump or NeverHillary...well, that's democracy.

The Tickets as of Today:

Donald Trump/ Mike Pence
Hillary Clinton/ Tim Kaine
Gary Johnson/ Bill Weld
Jill Stein/ Ajamu Baraka
(Updated Daily) Polls-Plus Model, Electoral Odds according to Five Thirty Eight:

Combines polls with an economic index. Since the economic index implies that this election should be a tossup, it assumes the race will tighten somewhat. Polls-plus combines polls with an economic index; polls-only does not. Polls-plus will include a convention bounce adjustment; polls-only will not. Polls-plus starts by assuming that likely voter polls are better for Republicans; polls-only makes no such assumption. Both models revise this assumption as more data becomes available. Polls-plus subtracts points from third-party candidates early in the race, while polls-only does not. Both models employ a regression that is based on demographics and past voting history. As another line of defense, both polls-plus and polls-only weight polls less if they’re conducted in the immediate aftermath of the convention. Polls-plus assumes that a modern-day convention bounce is worth 3 to 4 percentage points. But because the conventions occur back-to-back this year, the bounces could obscure each other.

Instead of using one regression model, three strategies are taken, which range from more simple to complex, and blend them together. The reason for this is that the more complex methods (especially strategy 3) are subject to potential overfitting. Hedging the complicated methods with simpler methods produces a better result.

Strategy 1: Pure PVI. This works by taking the national popular vote estimate and adding a state’s PVI to it. For example, if Clinton’s up 4 percentage points nationally, and a state’s PVI is Democrat +5 percent, she’d be projected to win the state by 9 percentage points.

Strategy 2: Regional regression. The adjusted polling average in each state is regressed on PVI and on dummy variables indicating which major region the state is in (Northeast, South, Midwest, West). Historically, this is the most effective approach. It can capture major changes in voting patterns from one election to the next, but doesn’t suffer from much overfitting. Regions are based on a combination of Census Bureau regions and political regions, as defined by FiveThirtyEight. Where they differ, a state is considered split between two regions. For example, Maryland is considered half Southern and half Northeastern by the model.

Strategy 3: Demographic regression. We regress the adjusted polling average in each state on PVI and several other variables, mostly related to race and religion, that are pertinent in this year’s election. (This includes the percentages of voters who are black, Hispanic, Asian, non-Christian, evangelical Christian, Mormon and college graduates. It also includes an economic index for each state, showing change over the last 12 months.)

The polls-plus model uses a 30/50/20 blend of strategies 1, 2 and 3. That means the regional regression gets the most weight. Polls-plus blends the fundamentals-based forecast with the weight assigned to fundamentals declining over time. Right now, 35 percent to 40 percent of the weight is assigned to fundamentals, but it will decline to zero by Election Day.

[New Dukaine]

RNC is hell rn

save us all johnson

[Astrolinium]

RNC is hell rn

save us all johnson

He's a libertarian, he's not going to try and regulate this no matter how much of a mess it becomes.

[Eol Sha]

This convention is off to a crazy, messy start.

[Ashmoria]

mrs trump would be a very pretty first lady!

[Thermodolia]

RNC is hell rn

save us all johnson

Johnson while a fun guy isn't going anywhere this year.

[The Land Fomerly Known as Ligerplace]

RNC is hell rn

save us all johnson

He's a libertarian, he's not going to try and regulate this no matter how much of a mess it becomes.

To be fair, Hillary wouldn't have won without government intervention.

[Valrifell]

mrs trump would be a very pretty first lady!

It's a shame she'll probably never be anywhere near the White House unless she paid for the tour.

[Thermodolia]

This convention is off to a crazy, messy start.

And to think we only have three more days!!

[New Dukaine]

RNC is hell rn

save us all johnson

Johnson while a fun guy isn't going anywhere this year.

Oh he will in my opinion

go on and feel the johnson

[Gauthier]

"Donald is intensely loyal to family."

This said by the woman who was his mistress on Marla Maples.

[New Jerzylvania]

This is just a Bizarro World convention, that's all.

She fell in love with Donald's kindness to begin with, er, uhh, more like his kind of money methinks.

[Ashmoria]

He's a libertarian, he's not going to try and regulate this no matter how much of a mess it becomes.

To be fair, Hillary wouldn't have won without government intervention.

what does that mean?

[The Land Fomerly Known as Ligerplace]

RNC is hell rn

save us all johnson

Johnson while a fun guy isn't going anywhere this year.

Rumors are out that Jeb! may grow a pair and endorse him.

Still hoping so over here.

[Eol Sha]

This convention is off to a crazy, messy start.

And to think we only have three more days!!

I'd say it's a gift if this gift wasn't covered in thorns, slathered in poison, and filled with chloroform.

[Corrian]

I am the undecided!

mrs trump would be a very pretty first lady!

Eh, I guess she's just not my type of "beauty"

[Gauthier]

To be fair, Hillary wouldn't have won without government intervention.

what does that mean?

Something something indictment blocked something something

[Southerly Gentleman]

To be fair, Hillary wouldn't have won without government intervention.

what does that mean?

It's a code phrase for "I'm with Bernie or bust"

[The United Territories of Providence]

sorry, had to reset poll. Forgot some people are still supporting Bernie and others are supporting the like "5th party" candidates

[Thermodolia]

Johnson while a fun guy isn't going anywhere this year.

Oh he will in my opinion

go on and feel the johnson

I'd rather not.

[Liriena]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/755213223046029316

RNC notes say Melania Trump received degree in design. False. She dropped out after a year, but campaign keeps talking about her degree.

Wow... is anything about this whole debacle real? Even the slightest bit?

[New Jerzylvania]

Johnson while a fun guy isn't going anywhere this year.

Rumors are out that Jeb! may grow a pair and endorse him.

Still hoping so over here.

Better yet, the Bushes should all go over to the Libertarian Party. How would that shake things up?

[Valrifell]

And to think we only have three more days!!

I'd say it's a gift if this gift wasn't covered in thorns, slathered in poison, and filled with chloroform.

This is some top-notch entertainment, you have to admit.

I do hope, though, the Democratic convention is nowhere near as entertaining.

[Ashmoria]

mrs trump would be a very pretty first lady!

It's a shame she'll probably never be anywhere near the White House unless she paid for the tour.

no its not a shame. she would be discontent with living in a dump like the white house. where are the gold furnishings?

[The Land Fomerly Known as Ligerplace]

To be fair, Hillary wouldn't have won without government intervention.

what does that mean?

DNC interfering in the free market, picking winners and losers.