UK Referendum Thread [Moderator Sanctioned]

[Mad hatters in jeans]

Yeah I suppose it is a bit early for air raid sirens. Though if the leadership in Westminster can't get their shit together it's going to hit the pound again isn't it?
So what's happening with the Euro and USD?

Well, the EUR has devalued against the dollar, with 1.105 as its average right now on the markets from the stability it had at 1.11

The dollar though has been enjoying an increase in value when it comes to the pound and the Euro, but we lost value when it comes to the yen: from 160 yen per dollar to 101 yens per dollar overnight after Brexit. We're slowly picking up in that market, but on the European markets our currency is stronger than it was pre-Brexit.

That's both a good thing and a bad thing for us, by the way.

Why is it good and bad?

[Arkolon]

Why would Farage resign from being an MEP? He's being paid over €8,000 (£6.6k) every month and his pension seems to get yummier every day he stays on board.

It's just so ... Farage.

[Valaran]

Why would Farage resign from being an MEP? He's being paid over €8,000 (£6.6k) every month and his pension seems to get yummier every day he stays on board.

It's just so ... Farage.

"I'm one of the people now!!1!"

[Kryozerkia]

Just out of curiosity, am I the only person posting in this thread with direct personal past experience of using the Australian immigration system? Which is apparently now the Utopian model that's going to immediately solve all of the UK's problems by a surfeit of buttercups and daisies.

I freely concede that having lived in Australia at the start of the millenium on three separate visas over the course of 6 years doesn't necessarily make me an expert or legal authority on the Australian system, but none of those visas - for what it's worth - were based on 'points', nor were they based on my Commonwealth status. They were instead based on a series of exemptions which are external to the basic points system. I gained permanent residency in Australia (since lost; so it wasn't that permanent) without once going through the points system.

You've said you're an academic. Academics are poorly paid, basically useless people who nonetheless have most of the positive attributes of skilled workers. That is why exemptions exist for them. I am sure they would in the UK too.

Your response has zero point other than to label academics as "useless people". If you cannot comment without snide backhanded comments then zip it.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Well, the EUR has devalued against the dollar, with 1.105 as its average right now on the markets from the stability it had at 1.11

The dollar though has been enjoying an increase in value when it comes to the pound and the Euro, but we lost value when it comes to the yen: from 160 yen per dollar to 101 yens per dollar overnight after Brexit. We're slowly picking up in that market, but on the European markets our currency is stronger than it was pre-Brexit.

That's both a good thing and a bad thing for us, by the way.

Why is it good and bad?

Well the positive is that our currency is stronger than yours, which means investment from the UK will come to the U.S., and we'll enjoy a surge of capital that wasn't there before.

It is a bad thing because everything we sell to Europe and the UK on volume just became a few more thousands of dollars more expensive. So we probably will end up with decreased exports. That's always a bad thing.

[Glamour]

In seriousness I have heard that Hong Kong wants to return to British rule now.

It does, because we're not quite as bad as China

But in seriousness, their reasons to desire British rule are largely concerned with their present situation, which overrides whatever instability we have from our crises.

UNITE THE CLANS!

[Glamour]

You've said you're an academic. Academics are poorly paid, basically useless people who nonetheless have most of the positive attributes of skilled workers. That is why exemptions exist for them. I am sure they would in the UK too.

Your response has zero point other than to label academics as "useless people". If you cannot comment without snide backhanded comments then zip it.

The UK is tired of experts.

[Arkolon]

Why is it good and bad?

Well the positive is that our currency is stronger than yours, which means investment from the UK will come to the U.S., and we'll enjoy a surge of capital that wasn't there before.

It is a bad thing because everything we sell to Europe on volume just became a few more thousands of dollars more expensive. So we probably will end up with decreased exports. That's always a bad thing.

It's also bad because 40% of the world economy is dollar-denominated as well as there being around $10 trillion of dollar-denominated debt being actively lent outside the US every year, and the rise in the USD just spiked up real debt burdens, meaning Brexit is acting as the largest monetary shock to hit the world economy since 2008.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Your response has zero point other than to label academics as "useless people". If you cannot comment without snide backhanded comments then zip it.

The UK is tired of experts.

Honestly, the entire thing is ridiculous.

"THE EXPERTS ARE LYING TO US TO PERPETUATE THE RICH PEOPLE GETTING RICHER!"

Now that every expert was right about Brexit:

"Right, they were right. But I will keep saying they're in on it".

[Alvecia]

Your response has zero point other than to label academics as "useless people". If you cannot comment without snide backhanded comments then zip it.

The UK is tired of "experts".

ftfy

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Well the positive is that our currency is stronger than yours, which means investment from the UK will come to the U.S., and we'll enjoy a surge of capital that wasn't there before.

It is a bad thing because everything we sell to Europe on volume just became a few more thousands of dollars more expensive. So we probably will end up with decreased exports. That's always a bad thing.

It's also bad because 40% of the world economy is dollar-denominated as well as there being around $10 trillion of dollar-denominated debt being actively lent outside the US every year, and the rise in the USD just spiked up real debt burdens, meaning Brexit is acting as the largest monetary shock to hit the world economy since 2008.

10 trillion is more than what we have out loaned ourselves in the U.S. I didn't know that people were handling so much dollar out of the U.S.

I am not sure how that will impact U.S. Public Debt or economic prospects though other than exports.

[Glamour]

The UK is tired of "experts".

ftfy

The UK is tired of being unable or unwilling to distinguish between who is an expert and who is a liar attempting to conspire globally against the British, who are poor because they keep voting for the Tories. But because they are poor there must be a conspiracy. And it must be one of European experts trying to steal their sovereignty because the poor were the ones who fought and died for the values of Britain, even though they actually fought and died in Europe. And even though they fought alongside the Polish, they aren't experts so they aren't good enough to come here and steal our jobs. And the ones we fought to liberate in the Middle East are not good enough to come here either because all of them are also conspiring against us. And anyone who wants to leave us is stupid. And anyone who doesn't agree with our values is not an expert and is stupid. Except those stupid experts, or the stupid "experts" who were smart enough to apparently conspire against us into voting for the dramatic destabilisation of our own country and the representation of our values abroad as incoherent and frankly laughable.

Got it.

[The Alma Mater]

Your response has zero point other than to label academics as "useless people". If you cannot comment without snide backhanded comments then zip it.

The UK is tired of experts.

Oh, I dunno. I quite liked the "expert Scotsman" (David Tennant) they hired to read the tweets calling Trump names

[Nationes Pii Redivivi]

I'm not well versed in Economics, but with the EU looking like its headed to economic catastrophe, how is Britain staying on that sinking ship supposed to make a difference?

[Vassenor]

but with the EU looking like its headed to economic catastrophe

I am interested in seeing your sources.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

I'm not well versed in Economics, but with the EU looking like its headed to economic catastrophe, how is Britain staying on that sinking ship supposed to make a difference?

Well, the UK had U.S. businesses established there who were using the UK as the gateway to the Euro market as well as a bunch of other investors into it for the same reason.

The EU has been looking like its headed to economic catastrophe only in a recessionary sense. The UK however now is looking at a sinking ship right before their eyes, and it's not the EU.

[Glamour]

I'm not well versed in Economics, but with the EU looking like its headed to economic catastrophe, how is Britain staying on that sinking ship supposed to make a difference?

The UK is heading towards economic catastrophe, and the EU is making an example of the UK to avoid itself falling into one also by everyone deciding to leave. But now, a wave of Euroscepticism is probably irreversible and so the point is not that Britain attempting to stay on the sinking ship (which it can't now since it is being made an example of) would make any difference, but instead that a huge difference in outcomes would have resulted from either a Remain and a Leave vote. If the UK had voted for Remain, what would the difference have been? Nobody knows now but it wouldn't have been like this anyway.

[Arkolon]

It's also bad because 40% of the world economy is dollar-denominated as well as there being around $10 trillion of dollar-denominated debt being actively lent outside the US every year, and the rise in the USD just spiked up real debt burdens, meaning Brexit is acting as the largest monetary shock to hit the world economy since 2008.

10 trillion is more than what we have out loaned ourselves in the U.S. I didn't know that people were handling so much dollar out of the U.S.

I am not sure how that will impact U.S. Public Debt or economic prospects though.

*gets back of an envelope*

Assuming UIRP holds, the current monetary outlook is as if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from the current 0.25% to 14.00%, since that would be enough (under UIRP) to make GBPUSD fall from 1.50 to 1.3223. So look at it from that perspective, I guess. Probably doesn't hurt public finances, no, but no wonder the monetary perspective is as calamitous as it is.

[Nationes Pii Redivivi]

but with the EU looking like its headed to economic catastrophe

I am interested in seeing your sources.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-13856580

While Britain isn't part of the single currency, it is tied to the single market, which isn't, by any stretch of the imagination, looking very well.

http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_wp_111_2013.pdf

[Alvecia]

ftfy

The UK is tired of being unable or unwilling to distinguish between who is an expert and who is a liar attempting to conspire globally against the British, who are poor because they keep voting for the Tories. But because they are poor there must be a conspiracy. And it must be one of European experts trying to steal their sovereignty because the poor were the ones who fought and died for the values of Britain, even though they actually fought and died in Europe. And even though they fought alongside the Polish, they aren't experts so they aren't good enough to come here and steal our jobs. And the ones we fought to liberate in the Middle East are not good enough to come here either because all of them are also conspiring against us. And anyone who wants to leave us is stupid. And anyone who doesn't agree with our values is not an expert and is stupid. Except those stupid experts, or the stupid "experts" who were smart enough to apparently conspire against us into voting for the dramatic destabilisation of our own country and the representation of our values abroad as incoherent and frankly laughable.

Got it.

.....yes?

[Soldati Senza Confini]

10 trillion is more than what we have out loaned ourselves in the U.S. I didn't know that people were handling so much dollar out of the U.S.

I am not sure how that will impact U.S. Public Debt or economic prospects though.

*gets back of an envelope*

Assuming UIRP holds, the current monetary outlook is as if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from the current 0.25% to 14.00%, since that would be enough (under UIRP) to make GBPUSD fall from 1.50 to 1.3223. So look at it from that perspective, I guess. Probably doesn't hurt public finances, no, but no wonder the monetary perspective is as calamitous as it is.

Privately, in a scale of fucks determining how fucked are we, that means we're very fucked.

If the Federal interests rates raised that much, loans and other types of borrowing money just became far more expensive than they were before. Probably not going to see an impact on credit card and private loan rate contracts pre-Brexit, but the effect will be felt going from here on out harshly on the rates being negotiated privately.

[Frank Zipper]

I'm not well versed in Economics, but with the EU looking like its headed to economic catastrophe, how is Britain staying on that sinking ship supposed to make a difference?

How is leaping into an economic catastrophe of our own making supposed to make a difference?

[Valaran]

I'm not well versed in Economics, but with the EU looking like its headed to economic catastrophe, how is Britain staying on that sinking ship supposed to make a difference?

Are you sure the EU is heading towards this? There's been a tentative recovery.

Secondly, there are economic benefits to staying in the EU, since in addition to everything else, it is a regional trading bloc (and the UK is in this region). These benefits would be lost without membership, and instead be replaced by costs, uncertainty and risks. Something an unusually broad group of economists agree on.

[Arkolon]

*gets back of an envelope*

Assuming UIRP holds, the current monetary outlook is as if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from the current 0.25% to 14.00%, since that would be enough (under UIRP) to make GBPUSD fall from 1.50 to 1.3223. So look at it from that perspective, I guess. Probably doesn't hurt public finances, no, but no wonder the monetary perspective is as calamitous as it is.

Privately, in a scale of fucks determining how fucked are we, that means we're very fucked.

If the Federal interests rates raised that much, loans and other types of borrowing money just became far more expensive than they were before. Probably not going to see an impact on credit card and private loan rate contracts pre-Brexit, but the effect will be felt going from here on out harshly on the rates being negotiated privately.

The more certain future, since interest rates were unchanged, is that everyone's dollars became more valuable .. which sucks if you own a share of that $10 trillion pie now that, especially in sterling, it just got about 12% more burdensome. Obviously it isn't going to hit American borrowing as bad as an actual 13.75% rate increase overnight would, but for people who buy and sell in a currency different to dollars, but they were issued dollar-denominated debt, it's exactly that bad.

[Olerand]

Everything's really falling apart up north ain't it? When are you planning on invoking Article 50? We're getting restless waiting here.