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Polish presidential election, 2015

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

Whom would you like as the next Polish President

Bronisław Komorowski
13
21%
Andrzej Duda
9
15%
Janusz Korwin-Mikke
6
10%
Magdalena Ogórek
12
20%
Paweł Kukiz
2
3%
Adam Jarubas
0
No votes
Janusz Palikot
8
13%
Grzegorz Braun
4
7%
Marian Kowalski
3
5%
Jacek Wilk/Paweł Tanajno
4
7%
 
Total votes : 61

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Rutuba
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Polish presidential election, 2015

Postby Rutuba » Wed May 06, 2015 5:43 pm

(Since there is room for only ten poll options, I combined the two candidates who are most likely to receive the least votes).

Poland is going to elect the next President this Sunday. The clear favourite is the incumbent Bronisław Komorowski, however, he has lost support in opinion polls during the campaign and now it is very unlikely he could win outright in the first round. He is expected to meet in the runoff with the candidate of the largest opposition party, Andrzej Duda. The race between smaller party and independent candidates is much more difficult to predict. In the beginning, right-wing perennial candidate and current MEP (in the last Euro-elections he surpassed the threshold for the first time) Janusz Korwin-Mikke was competing for the third place with a political newcomer Magdalena Ogórek of the formerly powerful Alliance of the Democratic Left (SLD). Recently, rock singer Paweł Kukiz has become the dark horse and some polls give him around ten percent of support.

So, the candidates are:
Bronisław Komorowski, the boring incumbent aligned with the ruling Civic Platform. His policies are generally centrist on both social and economic issues, and pro-European. He hasn't done much active campaigning and refused to participate in debates.

Andrzej Duda, the stooge of his party's leader. The policies of himself and his party, when compared with those of the government, are more left-wing on economy and more right-wing on socio-cultural issues. He is moderately Eurosceptic, and strongly Atlanticist and anti-Russian. His candidacy seems to be supported the most by the Catholic hierarchy.

Janusz Korwin-Mikke. Active in politics since the sixties, participated in most elections since the fall of communism - at all levels. He succeeded only twice: he was an MP between 1991 and 1993 (there was no election threshold back then) and was elected a MEP in 2014. Britons might have heard of him because some in UK were shocked by UKIP's co-operation with JKM's (former) party.
JKM, after leaving several political parties, most of which were founded by himself, finally settled on a party named after him: KORWiN.
His policies are a mix of libertarianism, conservatism, populism, and Godwin's law. If you oppose him, your views are Hitler's Hitlerite ideas.
Controversy is his bread and butter.

Magdalena Ogórek, the strange discovery of Leszek Miller (you may know him as the guy responsible for CIA prisons). His Alliance of the Democratic Left after winning with impressive 41% in 2011, had been demoted to a third party status in 2005, and in the 2014 European and local elections received only about 8%. The selection of a pretty TV presenter as their presidential candidate was expected to be a new beginning, but is likely to be the nail to the coffin of the Miller's party. Ogórek's policies are quite liberal on both social and economic issues. She avoids controversial radicalism, but nevertheless gained criticism by claiming that 'law should be rewritten'. She didn't manage to convince younger voters at whom her candidacy was aimed, while turning away the SLD's rank and file members and traditional supporters.

Paweł Kukiz. A popular rock singer and probably a nice guy, he embarked on a political career as a single issue candidate, and his issue is one of the dumbest possible. He claims that introducing a FPTP system in parliamentary elections would open up the political scene, make MPs actually responsible before voters and not their parties, and give independents a strong representation. Arguments that experience from countries which have this system generally show otherwise are dismissed by Kukiz. His campaign is generally built on the sentiment against the established political class (the 'neo-aristocracy' in Kukiz' own words) and the political parties.

Adam Jarubas. He is the candidate of the agrarian Polish People's Party (PSL), the junior coalition partner, and heads the provincial government of this party's stronghold, Świętokrzyskie. PSL is generally associated with cronyism, nepotism, corruption, electoral fraud, and ability to make deals with virtually everyone. Jarubas however tries to distance himself from this image. He talks much about the traditional peasants' pride, the Polish agrarian tradition (leaders such as interwar three-times PM Witos and the guy who tried to lead a legal opposition after the war, Mikołajczyk), and so on. Such a re-discovery of the PSL roots is quite interesting, but not necessarily convincing. Jarubas also tries to build on his local government experience and his relatively young age.
His ideology is socially conservative and economically left-leaning, and the major policy difference with Duda is foreign policy - Jarubas has been vocal about the negative economic impact of the sanctions against Russia, and opposes further involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.

Janusz Palikot. The guy who few years ago was a rising star, but by now he has plummeted to the status of political plankton. He describes himself as the only progressive among the candidates (not true, Tanajno is as socially left-wing as him, and Ogórek, while not so anti-clerical, is also a feminist). He focuses on secularism, socio-cultural progressivism, and European federalism (including the adoption of Euro as soon as possible). On economic issues, he takes a more moderate (some would say: undecided) approach; he criticises excessive bureaucracy, but also says that the state should take a more active role in fostering development.

And now we proceed to continue with the gallery of right-wingers (Korwin is above since he's likely to be third in this election, others are quite minor)

Grzegorz Braun, or the creepy one. Wants to crown Jesus as the King of Poland, opposes democracy because it means rule by freemasonry, supports "Nuremberg trials" for former communists, and admires Emperor Palpatine. What he cares most about is "Church, school, and shooting range". Oh, and he wants Poland to have WMDs. Braun is also notorious for his calls to shoot journalists from left-liberal media.
My views are kinda conservative, at least on some issues, but this guy is definitely insane.


Jacek Wilk, or the serious one. He is the candidate of the Congress of the New Right, the rump of the JKM's previous party. Wilk is essentially Korwin, but without the latter's controversial remarks on Hitler, women, shooting protesters, Hitler, disabled people, rape, and - last but not least - Hitler. Socially conservative, but focuses on economic issues, such as reducing the red tape and taxation. One policy difference with JKM I noticed is Wilk's support for building NATO bases in Poland.

Marian Kowalski, the most beautiful one :lol2: A bodybuilde and gym trainer, accused of assault. In his TV ad he appears at the gym and shouts at the camera that 'the leader must not be a loser' (the word was more vulgar in Polish, but I dunno how to translate it). He represents the far-right National Movement and used to be a Korwin disciple as well, but, quite interestingly, has decided to present himself as the heir of populists such as Stan Tyminski (the first official loony in Polish politics, also former leader of Canadian Libertarians, who met with Nobel laureate Wałęsa in the 1990 runoff) and late Andrzej Lepper rather than a young extremist inspired by pre-war National Radicals, which is a bit nice.

And finally, we get back to the left. Or something like this.

Paweł Tanajno of the Direct Democracy party, formerly aligned with Palikot. His programme is, well, direct democracy: obligatory referenda on many issues, preferential voting, and the right to recall. It's surprising that he got the required 100,000 signatures to run for President. His opinions on most issues are rather leftish.
Also, he is active on Facebook where makes observers meditate on whether he's an idiot or a troll - with notorious spelling mistakes, being proud and defending those mistakes, and insulting random critics and their families. Nevertheless, some independent left-wingers as well as those believing in his ideas on direct democracy support him - even if they see him just as the least evil candidate.

So, does the NSG have a favourite?

I myself do not. None of the candidates convinces me, most annoy me with more or less issues.

If you have any questions on Polish politics, I will try to answer.
Last edited by Rutuba on Wed May 06, 2015 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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MERIZoC
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Postby MERIZoC » Wed May 06, 2015 5:53 pm

Poland is of many candidates. Anywhat, none of them seem too great, but Palikot seems the best, if only for all of this:
Palikot is known in Poland for being one of the more colourful and controversial politicians, famous for his publicity stunts. In April 2007 during a PO press conference, Palikot wore a t-shirt with "I am with the SLD" ("Jestem z SLD") on the front and "I am gay" ("Jestem gejem") on the back. He later stated that he wanted to highlight the role PO should play in contemporary politics - as defenders of minorities.[3]

On 24 April 2007, he produced a gun and a dildo at a press conference about alleged rape by a few police officers from Lublin. Palikot presented the objects as modern "symbols of law and justice" (a pun referring to the socially conservative Law and Justice Party) in Poland and the Lublin's police.[4]

On 23 July 2008 Palikot said in an interview "I consider the President to be an oaf" ("Uważam prezydenta za chama"), a potentially illegal act under Poland's anti-defamation laws. An investigation was launched,[5] then dropped.[6]

In October 2008 during a TV interview about the PZPN (Polish Football Association) Palikot produced a butchered pig's head, a Godfather-style sign of declaring war against what Palikot called "corrupt" PZPN officials. [7]

In January 2009 Palikot caused further controversy when he wrote in his blog questioning whether the Polish President's brother, Jarosław Kaczyński, is gay: "I – unasked – declare unequivocally that I prefer women. And you, Mr Jarosław?"[8] As a result Donald Tusk, the leader of Palikot's party, the Civic Platform, launched an investigation into his behaviour.

On 5 July 2010, one day after the second round of the 2010 presidential elections Palikot announced that the late president Lech Kaczyński "has blood on his hands", blaming Kaczyński for the presidential airplane crash in Smolensk.[9]

On 20 January 2012, Janusz Palikot threatened to smoke a joint in Parliament in an attempt to get softdrugs legalized in Poland.[10]


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Die Volkstaat
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Postby Die Volkstaat » Wed May 06, 2015 5:56 pm

I'm preparing for hordes of people with no knowledge of Polish politics to shout "go, Palikot", as if he's somehow going to save Poland from social conservatism. He is as irrelevant as the American Reform Party. Why? Well, like the Reform Party and Ross Perot, citizens used to like him and his party, and now the novelty has vanished entirely.

I'll support the incumbent. The president of Poland is largely ceremonial, but I'm honestly not too keen on the idea of Law and Justice coming into power. Sure, they're atlanticist, anti-russian, and eurosceptic like myself, but I'm skeptical of them. The Civic Platform has done a decent job in the legislature making sure that Poland could create pragmatic solutions to get through the recession. Poland is doing fine, so I'll reluctantly back them. Granted, the President isn't a member of the Civic Platform, but he's aligned with them.
Last edited by Die Volkstaat on Wed May 06, 2015 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The Liberated Territories
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Postby The Liberated Territories » Wed May 06, 2015 6:40 pm

Jacek Wilk - Kongres Nowej Prawicy

Die Volkstaat wrote:I'm preparing for hordes of people with no knowledge of Polish politics to shout "go, Palikot", as if he's somehow going to save Poland from social conservatism. He is as irrelevant as the American Reform Party. Why? Well, like the Reform Party and Ross Perot, citizens used to like him and his party, and now the novelty has vanished entirely.

I'll support the incumbent. The president of Poland is largely ceremonial, but I'm honestly not too keen on the idea of Law and Justice coming into power. Sure, they're atlanticist, anti-russian, and eurosceptic like myself, but I'm skeptical of them. The Civic Platform has done a decent job in the legislature making sure that Poland could create pragmatic solutions to get through the recession. Poland is doing fine, so I'll reluctantly back them. Granted, the President isn't a member of the Civic Platform, but he's aligned with them.


hue
Last edited by The Liberated Territories on Wed May 06, 2015 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MERIZoC
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Postby MERIZoC » Wed May 06, 2015 6:41 pm

Die Volkstaat wrote:I'm preparing for hordes of people with no knowledge of Polish politics to shout "go, Palikot", as if he's somehow going to save Poland from social conservatism. He is as irrelevant as the American Reform Party. Why? Well, like the Reform Party and Ross Perot, citizens used to like him and his party, and now the novelty has vanished entirely.

And you, as someone living in America, have such a vast knowledge of Polish Politics?

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Vikipolis
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Postby Vikipolis » Wed May 06, 2015 6:57 pm

Magdalena :kiss: But my vote would go to Wilk :bow: Seems to be the only one with common sense and economics 101.
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Steamtopia
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Postby Steamtopia » Wed May 06, 2015 7:11 pm

Good god, Poland is dominated by the right.

Palikot for me, I suppose.
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Diopolis
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Postby Diopolis » Wed May 06, 2015 7:19 pm

It's hard to decide. On the one hand, Duda is endorsed by the church, and that counts for a lot with me. On the other, Braun wants to abolish democracy, which I'm not a big fan of, his calls for WMD's are just common sense for Poland in a world with increasing Russian aggression, I share his admiration for Palpatine, and he seems to want to reduce gun control, which I'm not a big fan of. On the third hand I have for some reason, he's almost certainly insane.
I'll go for Duda. Braun is probably a bit too crazy, and besides, there is that endorsement from the church.
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Die Volkstaat
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Postby Die Volkstaat » Wed May 06, 2015 7:30 pm

Merizoc wrote:
Die Volkstaat wrote:I'm preparing for hordes of people with no knowledge of Polish politics to shout "go, Palikot", as if he's somehow going to save Poland from social conservatism. He is as irrelevant as the American Reform Party. Why? Well, like the Reform Party and Ross Perot, citizens used to like him and his party, and now the novelty has vanished entirely.

And you, as someone living in America, have such a vast knowledge of Polish Politics?


My uncle lives in Poland.
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Cyrisnia
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Postby Cyrisnia » Wed May 06, 2015 8:17 pm

Merizoc wrote:Poland is of many candidates. Anywhat, none of them seem too great, but Palikot seems the best, if only for all of this:
Palikot is known in Poland for being one of the more colourful and controversial politicians, famous for his publicity stunts. In April 2007 during a PO press conference, Palikot wore a t-shirt with "I am with the SLD" ("Jestem z SLD") on the front and "I am gay" ("Jestem gejem") on the back. He later stated that he wanted to highlight the role PO should play in contemporary politics - as defenders of minorities.[3]

On 24 April 2007, he produced a gun and a dildo at a press conference about alleged rape by a few police officers from Lublin. Palikot presented the objects as modern "symbols of law and justice" (a pun referring to the socially conservative Law and Justice Party) in Poland and the Lublin's police.[4]

On 23 July 2008 Palikot said in an interview "I consider the President to be an oaf" ("Uważam prezydenta za chama"), a potentially illegal act under Poland's anti-defamation laws. An investigation was launched,[5] then dropped.[6]

In October 2008 during a TV interview about the PZPN (Polish Football Association) Palikot produced a butchered pig's head, a Godfather-style sign of declaring war against what Palikot called "corrupt" PZPN officials. [7]

In January 2009 Palikot caused further controversy when he wrote in his blog questioning whether the Polish President's brother, Jarosław Kaczyński, is gay: "I – unasked – declare unequivocally that I prefer women. And you, Mr Jarosław?"[8] As a result Donald Tusk, the leader of Palikot's party, the Civic Platform, launched an investigation into his behaviour.

On 5 July 2010, one day after the second round of the 2010 presidential elections Palikot announced that the late president Lech Kaczyński "has blood on his hands", blaming Kaczyński for the presidential airplane crash in Smolensk.[9]

On 20 January 2012, Janusz Palikot threatened to smoke a joint in Parliament in an attempt to get softdrugs legalized in Poland.[10]


I think we found the batshit guy.
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Polish Peoples
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Postby Polish Peoples » Wed May 06, 2015 8:26 pm

As you guys can see, Poland literally has nobody to run the country seriously, and I think since Palikot is batshit crazy, just for a goof he should become Polands president lol
Last edited by Polish Peoples on Wed May 06, 2015 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Diopolis » Wed May 06, 2015 9:27 pm

Polish Peoples wrote:As you guys can see, Poland literally has nobody to run the country seriously, and I think since Palikot is batshit crazy, just for a goof he should become Polands president lol

Braun sounds like more fun to watch. Having a country run by its equivalent of Mel Gibson would be... priceless.
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Postby Risottia » Wed May 06, 2015 11:24 pm

Let's hope the Poles choose Braun.

So Germany gets to invade Poland again... this time FÜR DIE DEMOKRATIE! ;)
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Arglorand
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Postby Arglorand » Wed May 06, 2015 11:34 pm

Can we just elect Geralt of Rivia and be done with it?
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Postby Teemant » Thu May 07, 2015 1:43 am

I don't know much about Polish politics but because Sikorski and Tusk seem to be reasonable politicians (civic platform) I choosed Komorowski here.
Last edited by Teemant on Thu May 07, 2015 1:44 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Rutuba
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Postby Rutuba » Thu May 07, 2015 1:47 am

Now the most Youtube ad is that of Komorowski attacking Duda for his support for banning in vitro fertilisation (I don't watch TV so I can't tell about its frequency there). So we get the traditional Civic Platform campaigning, let's wait for the last few days and then release videos claiming the other guys are extremists. Worked last time. And before.

And Korwin-Mikke proposed a bet to Kukiz: if UKIP gains at least twenty seats in House of Commons, JKM will endorse him, because he will now be convinced the FPTP works in 'opening up the political scene'. :p

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Draakonite
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Postby Draakonite » Thu May 07, 2015 1:46 pm

It is time to elect a saxon again.
Although it would be funny to see Braun shooting lightning at parliament members, because they call him batshit crazy.

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Postby Cyrisnia » Thu May 07, 2015 2:07 pm

Risottia wrote:Let's hope the Poles choose Braun.

So Germany gets to invade Poland again... this time FÜR DIE DEMOKRATIE! ;)

NIE. :evil:
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Postby Vasileus » Thu May 07, 2015 2:20 pm

Well, Andrzej Duda seems to be one of the few sane candidates.

Is it too late for vote for Lech Wałęsa?
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Postby Napkiraly » Thu May 07, 2015 2:24 pm

Komorowski.

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Rutuba
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Postby Rutuba » Thu May 07, 2015 2:39 pm

Vasileus wrote:Well, Andrzej Duda seems to be one of the few sane candidates.

Is it too late for vote for Lech Wałęsa?

When he stood for the last time, in 2000, he received a magnificent one percent of the vote.

As for Duda, I'm not a big fan of him and I'm very sceptical towards his party, but I think that's good that Komorowski won't get an absolute majority in the first round, and I would even be a bit satisfied if he somehow lost in the runoff. A president from an opposition party would not be that bad under what begins to appear like a dominant-party system.
Last edited by Rutuba on Thu May 07, 2015 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Vasileus
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Postby Vasileus » Thu May 07, 2015 2:43 pm

Rutuba wrote:
Vasileus wrote:Well, Andrzej Duda seems to be one of the few sane candidates.

Is it too late for vote for Lech Wałęsa?

When he stood for the last time, in 2000, he received a magnificent one percent of the vote.

lol.

poor guy
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Ashworth-Attwater
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Postby Ashworth-Attwater » Thu May 07, 2015 2:56 pm

Die Volkstaat wrote:I'm preparing for hordes of people with no knowledge of Polish politics to shout "go, Palikot", as if he's somehow going to save Poland from social conservatism.


That's what happens whenever there's a thread about elections in a minor country. Just switch "Palikot" with whatever candidate they think it's the best after taking a quick look at his Wikipedia article. That is, assuming there's an English one written about him. Otherwise, they'll just go with what the OP said.
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Rutuba
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Postby Rutuba » Sun May 10, 2015 12:10 pm

And the results of exit polls are in:
Andrzej Duda - 34.8%
Bronisław Komorowski - 32.2%
Paweł Kukiz - 20.3%
Janusz Korwin-Mikke - 4.4%
Magdalena Ogórek - 2.4%
Adam Jarubas - 1.6%
Janusz Palikot - 1.5%
Grzegorz Braun - 1.1%
Marian Kowalski - 0.8%
Jacek Wilk - 0.6%
Paweł Tanajno - 0.3%

Few months ago, Komorowski was expected to win in the first round, getting even 60% of the vote. That's how you end up if you do not campaign vigourously.
And few weeks ago Kukiz stood at about five percent of support. Impressive.

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Liberty and Linguistics
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Postby Liberty and Linguistics » Sun May 10, 2015 12:17 pm

Rutuba wrote:And the results of exit polls are in:
Andrzej Duda - 34.8%
Bronisław Komorowski - 32.2%
Paweł Kukiz - 20.3%
Janusz Korwin-Mikke - 4.4%
Magdalena Ogórek - 2.4%
Adam Jarubas - 1.6%
Janusz Palikot - 1.5%
Grzegorz Braun - 1.1%
Marian Kowalski - 0.8%
Jacek Wilk - 0.6%
Paweł Tanajno - 0.3%

Few months ago, Komorowski was expected to win in the first round, getting even 60% of the vote. That's how you end up if you do not campaign vigourously.
And few weeks ago Kukiz stood at about five percent of support. Impressive.


The good news is that the role of president in Poland, as in many Slavic nations, is largely ceremonial. I'd be more worried if the Civic Platform were to lose the upcoming parliamentary elections, which will be close as well.
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