2015 UK Politics Megathread

[Steamtopia]

(Image)

Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

holy shit it's very unlikely but just fucking imagine a 276-276. might be even worse than 280-270 or 270-280.

LabSNP could form a coalition on their own with that forecast.

[Die Volkstaat]

(Image)

Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

holy shit it's very unlikely but just fucking imagine a 276-276. might be even worse than 280-270 or 270-280.

LabSNP could form a coalition on their own with that forecast.

This raises a question, would Ed Miliband's popularity be severely damaged if he broke his promise on the SNP deal? It's literally the only way he could get into power.

Plus, I imagine the UKIP will gain a seat or two, giving them 3 or so seats. Not one, that implies that they'll only hold onto Clacton. They'll win Clacton, they might win Rocester and Thurrock, and Farage has a small chance in South Thanet.

[Steamtopia]

LabSNP could form a coalition on their own with that forecast.

This raises a question, would Ed Miliband's popularity be severely damaged if he broke his promise on the SNP deal? It's literally the only way he could get into power.

Plus, I imagine the UKIP will gain a seat or two, giving them 3 or so seats. Not one, that implies that they'll only hold onto Clacton. They'll win Clacton, they might win Rocester and Thurrock, and Farage has a small chance in South Thanet.

UKIP's not really relevant in any equation. It'll be LabSNP, a minority government, or another election.

Or, if you like the idea of political parties committing electoral suicide, a grand coalition called LabCon.

[Kingdoms of Cal]

Intresting observation: Labour will not make deals with Plaid or the SNP as they want to "brake up britian", but is happy enough to, not just make deals but stand aside for the SDLP in northern ireland. The SDLP are a republican party that wants a united ireland....s'pose it depends on which bit of the UK you want to brake off.

[Die Volkstaat]

This raises a question, would Ed Miliband's popularity be severely damaged if he broke his promise on the SNP deal? It's literally the only way he could get into power.

Plus, I imagine the UKIP will gain a seat or two, giving them 3 or so seats. Not one, that implies that they'll only hold onto Clacton. They'll win Clacton, they might win Rocester and Thurrock, and Farage has a small chance in South Thanet.

UKIP's not really relevant in any equation. It'll be LabSNP, a minority government, or another election.

Or, if you like the idea of political parties committing electoral suicide, a grand coalition called LabCon.

I'll bet that another election will take place, despite the fixed term act. Now, UKIP's number of seats will be rather irrelevant, but their surge, alongside the surge of the SNP, and to a lesser extent, the Greens, should be relevant in the sense that it shows Westminster that people are disillusioned with politics.

Oh, I'd love that last the option. It's so unlikely, but it'd be a bigger suicide note than Labour's platform in 1983. (It was '83, right?)

[L Ron Cupboard]

This raises a question, would Ed Miliband's popularity be severely damaged if he broke his promise on the SNP deal? It's literally the only way he could get into power.

If Labour get more seats than the Conservatives he could form a minority government and seek support on a case by case basis, without forming a formal coalition with the SNP.

[Die Volkstaat]

It may also hurt Sturgeon if she decides to form a coalition with Labour. She wouldn't be able to go through with many of her progressive plans, which would disillusion many Scottish voters.

[Steamtopia]

UKIP's not really relevant in any equation. It'll be LabSNP, a minority government, or another election.

Or, if you like the idea of political parties committing electoral suicide, a grand coalition called LabCon.

I'll bet that another election will take place, despite the fixed term act. Now, UKIP's number of seats will be rather irrelevant, but their surge, alongside the surge of the SNP, and to a lesser extent, the Greens, should be relevant in the sense that it shows Westminster that people are disillusioned with politics.

Oh, I'd love that last the option. It's so unlikely, but it'd be a bigger suicide note than Labour's platform in 1983. (It was '83, right?)

If only we'd voted for electoral reform in 2011, things could have been far more interesting.

[Die Volkstaat]

This raises a question, would Ed Miliband's popularity be severely damaged if he broke his promise on the SNP deal? It's literally the only way he could get into power.

If Labour get more seats than the Conservatives he could form a minority government and seek support on a case by case basis, without forming a formal coalition with the SNP.

They could. However, it seems unlikely, because it seems that Britain isn't great with minority governments.

[Steamtopia]

It may also hurt Sturgeon if she decides to form a coalition with Labour. She wouldn't be able to go through with many of her progressive plans, which would disillusion many Scottish voters.

And then SNP and Labour would crash in 2020. Where would they defect to? Green surge 2.0? New parties?

[Die Volkstaat]

I'll bet that another election will take place, despite the fixed term act. Now, UKIP's number of seats will be rather irrelevant, but their surge, alongside the surge of the SNP, and to a lesser extent, the Greens, should be relevant in the sense that it shows Westminster that people are disillusioned with politics.

Oh, I'd love that last the option. It's so unlikely, but it'd be a bigger suicide note than Labour's platform in 1983. (It was '83, right?)

If only we'd voted for electoral reform in 2011, things could have been far more interesting.

Anything is better than FPTP, really. I'd prefer MMP, but AV works.

[Die Volkstaat]

It may also hurt Sturgeon if she decides to form a coalition with Labour. She wouldn't be able to go through with many of her progressive plans, which would disillusion many Scottish voters.

And then SNP and Labour would crash in 2020. Where would they defect to? Green surge 2.0? New parties?

The Scottish Green Party. *nods*

[Kingdoms of Cal]

This raises a question, would Ed Miliband's popularity be severely damaged if he broke his promise on the SNP deal? It's literally the only way he could get into power.

If Labour get more seats than the Conservatives he could form a minority government and seek support on a case by case basis, without forming a formal coalition with the SNP.

That's basically what the SNP have been saying they want since the election kicked off, they ruled out coalition with labour months ago.

[Pesda]

I think I might as well write a post to explain it.

I strongly believe that Wales as a country needs to improve. It is absurd that we are the poorest country in the UK, and that means we need to advance in order to be equal with the other countries, not by making them worse off but by improving ourselves. We need policies that would improve the Welsh economy. To do this we need more funding for Wales.

This election, a Westminster election, is the chance to get more resources for Wales. We can decide how we use those resources during the Assembly elections next year, but for now we need to focus on getting them. The only way to get more funding for the Welsh government is to ask for it. The only party which will do this effectively is Plaid Cymru. Leanne Wood, during one of the debates, gave the other leaders an opportunity to mach her promise of asking for an extra £1.2 billion for Wales –the amount of money needed so that we would have the same per head as Scotland- and every single one of the other leaders refused. If Welsh representatives don’t even ask for fair funding for their county, what chance do we have of getting it?

Parity with Scotland, something only Plaid is asking for, together with ending austerity for the whole UK, something only Plaid and few others (not Labour sadly) demand, will make a massive difference for us in Wales and for people thoughout the UK. With that extra funding we could start reversing the cuts that the Labour run Welsh government made to things like health and education, aiming to make services better than ever before. We could decentralise healthcare, bringing it closer to the people, rather than close down maternity units and smaller hospitals like has happened over the last few years. We could reduce tuition fees for Welsh students with the ultimate aim of bringing free education like for those in Scotland and Germany. Out of these things, we would have to decide which of them we prioritse next year, but for now lets make sure that we will be able to do as many good things as possible.

I think that Plaid Cymru is the party with most ambition. They will always try to get the best deal for Wales, while other parties are too scared of their leaders in England to make a brave enough stand. A strong group of Plaid Cymru MPs, such as my own –Hywel Williams, will potentially have enough influence, especially in the likely event of a hung parliment, to demand positive change. They will work with other MPs who share the goal of ending austerity making their influence even more.

I’m not willing to let people scare me into settling for the second best. And I’m definitely not scared of the SNP who unlike Labour or the Toies actually support fair funding for Wales! I’m not scared of absurd warnings about the debt (the deficit would still go down if we increased spending). I just want the best for my country. So I will vote for the people who will demand the best for my country.

[Frasers]

Oh, I'd love that last the option. It's so unlikely, but it'd be a bigger suicide note than Labour's platform in 1983. (It was '83, right?)

Interestingly in 83 the share of the Conservative vote dropped as well, but because loads of left wingers voted Liberal and SDP it fucked Labour over in marginals and handed seats to the Tories.

[Frasers]

Pesda mate split your post into paragraphs, it's just a wall of text atm

[Steamtopia]

If only we'd voted for electoral reform in 2011, things could have been far more interesting.

Anything is better than FPTP, really. I'd prefer MMP, but AV works.

STV for me.

[Die Volkstaat]

Oh, I'd love that last the option. It's so unlikely, but it'd be a bigger suicide note than Labour's platform in 1983. (It was '83, right?)

Interestingly in 83 the share of the Conservative vote dropped as well, but because loads of left wingers voted Liberal and SDP it fucked Labour over in marginals and handed seats to the Tories.

Hehe, indeed. If Britain didn't have FPTP at the time, the LibDems would've had hundreds of seats under that parliament.

[Miletos]

If Labour get more seats than the Conservatives he could form a minority government and seek support on a case by case basis, without forming a formal coalition with the SNP.

They could. However, it seems unlikely, because it seems that Britain isn't great with minority governments.

It seems far more likely than Miliband and Sturgeon committing joint political seppuku.

I've seen suggestions that Labour might go for a Lab-Lib minority coalition with the Lib Dems, so that the SNP will vote for Britain-wide legislation with which it agrees but Lib-Lab alone will be able to outvote the Tories if the SNP abstains (on England-only legislation in particular).

[Frasers]

Hehe, indeed. If Britain didn't have FPTP at the time, the LibDems would've had hundreds of seats under that parliament.

Lib Dems didn't exist at the time, it was still the Liberals and the SDP

[Steamtopia]

Interestingly in 83 the share of the Conservative vote dropped as well, but because loads of left wingers voted Liberal and SDP it fucked Labour over in marginals and handed seats to the Tories.

Hehe, indeed. If Britain didn't have FPTP at the time, the LibDems would've had hundreds of seats under that parliament.

Lib Dems would've had 140-150 seats in 2010 if we had PR. Could've been a much more balanced coalition government.

[Miletos]

Anything is better than FPTP, really. I'd prefer MMP, but AV works.

STV for me.

I'd be fine with just importing the German system, personally.

[Die Volkstaat]

I think I might as well write a post to explain it.
I strongly believe that Wales as a country needs to improve. It is absurd that we are the poorest country in the UK, and that means we need to advance in order to be equal with the other countries, not by making them worse off but by improving ourselves. We need policies that would improve the Welsh economy. To do this we need more funding for Wales.
This election, a Westminster election, is the chance to get more resources for Wales. We can decide how we use those resources during the Assembly elections next year, but for now we need to focus on getting them. The only way to get more funding for the Welsh government is to ask for it. The only party which will do this effectively is Plaid Cymru. Leanne Wood, during one of the debates, gave the other leaders an opportunity to mach her promise of asking for an extra £1.2 billion for Wales –the amount of money needed so that we would have the same per head as Scotland- and every single one of the other leaders refused. If Welsh representatives don’t even ask for fair funding for their county, what chance do we have of getting it?
Parity with Scotland, something only Plaid is asking for, together with ending austerity for the whole UK, something only Plaid and few others (not Labour sadly) demand, will make a massive difference for us in Wales and for people thoughout the UK. With that extra funding we could start reversing the cuts that the Labour run Welsh government made to things like health and education, aiming to make services better than ever before. We could decentralise healthcare, bringing it closer to the people, rather than close down maternity units and smaller hospitals like has happened over the last few years. We could reduce tuition fees for Welsh students with the ultimate aim of bringing free education like for those in Scotland and Germany. Out of these things, we would have to decide which of them we prioritse next year, but for now lets make sure that we will be able to do as many good things as possible.
I think that Plaid Cymru is the party with most ambition. They will always try to get the best deal for Wales, while other parties are too scared of their leaders in England to make a brave enough stand. A strong group of Plaid Cymru MPs, such as my own –Hywel Williams, will potentially have enough influence, especially in the likely event of a hung parliment, to demand positive change. They will work with other MPs who share the goal of ending austerity making their influence even more.
I’m not willing to let people scare me into settling for the second best. And I’m definitely not scared of the SNP who unlike Labour or the Toies actually support fair funding for Wales! I’m not scared of absurd warnings about the debt (the deficit would still go down if we increased spending). I just want the best for my country. So I will vote for the people who will demand the best for my country.

More funding for Wales isn't guaranteed to help. Throwing money at poorer regions doesn't always work. No, the government needs to work to further diversify and liberalize the economy of Wals which would help the former manufacturing regions that were admittedly hurt after Thatcher left #10.

Many former manufacturing and mining regions in Europe and the U.S. are quite poor, partially because of the collapse of their respective industries, but also because they're generally run by governments that just "throw many at the situation." It helps a little bit, but when we look at Glasgow or Detroit, what do we see? We see failures in public projects.

On a related note, I can respect Leanne Wood. I don't agree with her on many issues, but her humility, kindness, and the fact that she never resorts to yelling is something I admire.

[Die Volkstaat]

Hehe, indeed. If Britain didn't have FPTP at the time, the LibDems would've had hundreds of seats under that parliament.

Lib Dems didn't exist at the time, it was still the Liberals and the SDP

Right, but they became the LibDems we know today.

[Die Volkstaat]

They could. However, it seems unlikely, because it seems that Britain isn't great with minority governments.

It seems far more likely than Miliband and Sturgeon committing joint political seppuku.

I've seen suggestions that Labour might go for a Lab-Lib minority coalition with the Lib Dems, so that the SNP will vote for Britain-wide legislation with which it agrees but Lib-Lab alone will be able to outvote the Tories if the SNP abstains (on England-only legislation in particular).

Clegg seems open to anything, tbh. I recall him saying that "he'd be fine in a Tory coalition, and fine in a Labour one."