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Next Superpower ?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:13 pm
by Arcanda
Which country do you think would become the next superpower in the future ? (2020~2050)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower
A superpower is a state with a dominant position in international relations and is characterised by its unparalleled ability to exert influence or project power on a global scale. This is done through the means of both military and economic strength, as well as diplomatic and soft power influence.


Basically, you need wealth, cultural influence, a very good military, and good international relations.
If it were up to me, I'd also include scientific advancement, so feel free to say something about that too.

There are many, many, many candidates, but in order to narrow the votes and to have a clearer view, I won't put all the developping countries/advanced countries in the poll, just those we are talking about right now.

The United States of America - A Superpower since nearly a century, has bases all over the world, and maybe the greatest cultural influence one can have.Although slowing down in both scientific and economic power since the 1980s, it's still ahead of many countries.It's a key nation in world diplomacy.

I personally think that although some people seem to "freak out" about how all empires fall, this one is made to last - Namely because it went through a very bad crisis already, in 1929 to be exact, and it has slow but adequate growth both in terms of population and economy.

One thing that I fear tho is the massive scale of agriculture (=Damaging land) and how soils are polluted by shale gas.

China - It is becoming a key nation in Asia, however their population (More males than females, and aging population), lack of cultural influence and modernization will hold them back.

India - It has a very strong population but not so much military influence.I'd say mild for culture, but I doubt all the Buddhists over the world would one day emigrate there.


As a side note, don't expect a strong OP presence, I'm not very active on the forums but I'm interested in seeing what you think.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:14 pm
by Teemant
USA is a hyperpower.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:14 pm
by Marelius
China, with Russia and India following.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:16 pm
by Ofuudin
If China's economy doesn't implode
China and Roshia.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:16 pm
by Teemant
Marelius wrote:China, with Russia and India following.


You may want to slow down with Russia. Russian economy is expected to decline 5% this year or maybe even more. Won't achieve superpower status like this.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:18 pm
by Arcanda
Teemant wrote:
Marelius wrote:China, with Russia and India following.


You may want to slow down with Russia. Russian economy is expected to decline 5% this year or maybe even more. Won't achieve superpower status like this.

I agree.
They may continue to be powerful militarily speaking, but in none of the other categories.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:18 pm
by Marelius
Teemant wrote:
Marelius wrote:China, with Russia and India following.


You may want to slow down with Russia. Russian economy is expected to decline 5% this year or maybe even more. Won't achieve superpower status like this.

We're not speaking who will be next year's superpower, i'm talking about the long run.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:18 pm
by The Republic of Kitt
Possibly Brazil? I have no idea.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:18 pm
by Arcanda
Marelius wrote:
Teemant wrote:
You may want to slow down with Russia. Russian economy is expected to decline 5% this year or maybe even more. Won't achieve superpower status like this.

We're not speaking who will be next year's superpower, i'm talking about the long run.

How would they achieve to do so ?

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:19 pm
by Teemant
Marelius wrote:
Teemant wrote:
You may want to slow down with Russia. Russian economy is expected to decline 5% this year or maybe even more. Won't achieve superpower status like this.

We're not speaking who will be next year's superpower, i'm talking about the long run.


OP says 2020 beginning. And with GDP declining 5% or even more they are not moving closer to superpower status.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:20 pm
by Marelius
Teemant wrote:
Marelius wrote:We're not speaking who will be next year's superpower, i'm talking about the long run.


OP says 2020 beginning. And with GDP declining 5% or even more they are not moving closer to superpower status.

2020-2050
Seems like they have more than ample time to me.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:23 pm
by Teemant
Marelius wrote:
Teemant wrote:
OP says 2020 beginning. And with GDP declining 5% or even more they are not moving closer to superpower status.

2020-2050
Seems like they have more than ample time to me.


You must take into consideration that while Russia GDP declines 5% or more other countries are not waiting. It becomes impossible to catch USA and China (and India probably) because USA has like 4-5% economic growth right now.
And oil prices probably won't go back over 100 dollars (of Russias export 3/4 are oil and gas). Continuing like this they will be regional power.

Just googled and India will surpass Russias GDP this year.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:23 pm
by Mike the Progressive
America.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:26 pm
by The Selkie
If we Europeans manage to speak with one voice, then I would say, that the Old World is rising again. Then I would look out for China and so0me of those Second-World Countries in South America.
If they don't manage to become a real, international superpower, they will become a regional superpower and I believe it is not a bad development.

And then, there is of course merry ol' Murica.
Well, although in a decline, the Roman Empire was a superpower of its time for a long, long time.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:27 pm
by Mike the Progressive
The Selkie wrote:If we Europeans manage to speak with one voice, then I would say, that the Old World is rising again. Then I would look out for China and so0me of those Second-World Countries in South America.
If they don't manage to become a real, international superpower, they will become a regional superpower and I believe it is not a bad development.

And then, there is of course merry ol' Murica.
Well, although in a decline, the Roman Empire was a superpower of its time for a long, long time.


Not sure how we are in decline. There's a difference between us on decline and other nations developing...

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:28 pm
by The Sotoan Union
I don't think the US will decline to the point of not being a superpower, and it already is a superpower. So as for the next superpower I would say China.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:28 pm
by Teemant
The Selkie wrote:If we Europeans manage to speak with one voice, then I would say, that the Old World is rising again. Then I would look out for China and so0me of those Second-World Countries in South America.
If they don't manage to become a real, international superpower, they will become a regional superpower and I believe it is not a bad development.

And then, there is of course merry ol' Murica.
Well, although in a decline, the Roman Empire was a superpower of its time for a long, long time.


I'm sceptical of Europe as a superpower. Some countries can't even get their economic policy straight. And to be a superpower you need some serious muscle (military power) something that Europe does not have (or will not have looking at defence spending).

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:29 pm
by Sebastianbourg
America and Europe.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:30 pm
by Marelius
The Selkie wrote:If we Europeans manage to speak with one voice, then I would say, that the Old World is rising again. Then I would look out for China and so0me of those Second-World Countries in South America.
If they don't manage to become a real, international superpower, they will become a regional superpower and I believe it is not a bad development.

Not happening.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:30 pm
by Teemant
The Sotoan Union wrote:I don't think the US will decline to the point of not being a superpower, and it already is a superpower. So as for the next superpower I would say China.


USA will be superpower in next century too without any doubt.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:38 pm
by Earl of Sandwich IV
Marelius wrote:
Teemant wrote:
You may want to slow down with Russia. Russian economy is expected to decline 5% this year or maybe even more. Won't achieve superpower status like this.

We're not speaking who will be next year's superpower, i'm talking about the long run.

Russia has nothing going for it. Not in short nor in the long run.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:41 pm
by The Liberated Territories
Switzerland and Lichtenstein will team up to be the world's next superpower.

All hail the Switzerstein Empire.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:53 pm
by Normandy and Picardy
Europe is never going to last. The eurozone is in crisis and there is a growing support for leaving the EU in the UK. UKIP say they will do it and the Conservative Party that they will hold a referendum in 2017 if they win this year's general election. If the UK leaves, Europe will probably collapse under it's economic crisis and the UK's influence will fade away. The Gulf States will lose what power they have when either the oil runs out or the world moves to renewables. Russia is an old power but it won't be on the future, at least not with Putin at the helm. India could become a power but only if they deal with their widespread poverty. The USA is currently superpower and unless something catostrophic happens I see no reason why that should change. China, if they can maintain there growth and can break into the global market eith their technology firms, should easily become a superpower.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 2:14 pm
by L Ron Cupboard
Normandy and Picardy wrote:Europe is never going to last.


Hilarious. I laughed.

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 2:15 pm
by Nervium
Andorra.