NationStates

Greece got the right and the left in this election, and no To Potami. Shit.

Hydesland wrote:It's difficult to guess exactly what's going to happen to Greece, this is uncharted territory.

One possibility is that they'll leave the Eurozone, reintroduce the drachma and attempt to peg it to the Euro initially - but I would expect instead a huge jump in the price level, something that could cause a great deal of hardship. After the jump though, probably a moderate recovery.

The chances of Greece leaving the eurozone under this coalition is very low.

Atlanticatia wrote:

Hydesland wrote:
Countries reneging on IMF deals or deals with other similar institutions/nations is not new, so hardly. Leaving a currency block on the other hand, this is something I've seen studied less.

I feel like it could be different since it's Greece, an OECD/EU/Euro country

Perhaps, but Greece has always been a fairly poor country relative to other western countries, and always had major structural problems even before the crisis. That makes it not substantially different from what Argentina was for instance. As for politics..

which is going to be able to spur political changes in the rest of Europe.

... maybe, but I think it depends on how they actually do first.

Natapoc wrote:

Hydesland wrote:It's difficult to guess exactly what's going to happen to Greece, this is uncharted territory.

One possibility is that they'll leave the Eurozone, reintroduce the drachma and attempt to peg it to the Euro initially - but I would expect instead a huge jump in the price level, something that could cause a great deal of hardship. After the jump though, probably a moderate recovery.

The chances of Greece leaving the eurozone under this coalition is very low.

Bond market has unfortunately not been crazy.

Natapoc wrote:

Hydesland wrote:It's difficult to guess exactly what's going to happen to Greece, this is uncharted territory.

One possibility is that they'll leave the Eurozone, reintroduce the drachma and attempt to peg it to the Euro initially - but I would expect instead a huge jump in the price level, something that could cause a great deal of hardship. After the jump though, probably a moderate recovery.

The chances of Greece leaving the eurozone under this coalition is very low.

That's a shame, I think it might be better in the long term both for Greece and Europe if they ditch it.

Euro drops to 11-year low. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-26/euro-falls-to-11-year-low-as-syriza-wins-greek-poll.html

Hydesland wrote:
That's a shame, I think it might be better in the long term both for Greece and Europe if they ditch it.

Of course it is. The Euro is and always was going to be a complete disaster, you cannot' have monetary union without fiscal union. Even then the differences between Europe's economies is to great to share a common currency.

Greece needs to go back to the Drachma and then devalue. It would initially be REALLY tough but at least the Greeks would have control over their own economy.

Geilinor wrote:Euro drops to 11-year low. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-26/euro-falls-to-11-year-low-as-syriza-wins-greek-poll.html

Another 1,000 USD from shorting the Euro.

Thank you Syriza.

Greater-London wrote:

Hydesland wrote:
That's a shame, I think it might be better in the long term both for Greece and Europe if they ditch it.

Of course it is. The Euro is and always was going to be a complete disaster, you cannot' have monetary union without fiscal union. Even then the differences between Europe's economies is to great to share a common currency.

Greece needs to go back to the Drachma and then devalue. It would initially be REALLY tough but at least the Greeks would have control over their own economy.

The problem is all the bonds that are currently killing them are denominated in Euros.

Insaeldor wrote:Kinda sad to see Potima blocked out of the current government coalition (apparently) but good in the Greeks. Can't say I support SYRIZA but they at least set a message to Europe about their distaste for EU economic policy as well as Austarity measures.

I'm not terribly surprised that Potima was shut out of things. By the look of their Wiki page, they seem like the sort of bland, inoffensive centrist party that have been suffering badly in European elections for years now. It would be bad optics for Syriza to ally with them now.

greed and death wrote:

Greater-London wrote:
Of course it is. The Euro is and always was going to be a complete disaster, you cannot' have monetary union without fiscal union. Even then the differences between Europe's economies is to great to share a common currency.

Greece needs to go back to the Drachma and then devalue. It would initially be REALLY tough but at least the Greeks would have control over their own economy.

The problem is all the bonds that are currently killing them are denominated in Euros.

I don't think anyone is denying a major debt restructuring or further default will happen in that scenario though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_the_Democratic_Centre_(Greece)
Syriza has a centrist faction! Unfortunately, they also have Maoists.

Geilinor wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_the_Democratic_Centre_(Greece)
Syriza has a centrist faction!

They actually seem....pretty good.

Just wanted to say congratulations to the Greek people for electing SYRIZA! <3

Hydesland wrote:

greed and death wrote:The problem is all the bonds that are currently killing them are denominated in Euros.

I don't think anyone is denying a major debt restructuring or further default will happen in that scenario though.

Germany aka the creditors have been pretty much denying a debt restructuring will happen regardless on if Greece leaves the Euro Zone or not.

Greece gets quartely bailout money from Europe. So how can austerity be over?

Not surprized about the Syriza-ANEL coalition.

To Potami is much closer to Syriza in many point of their political agenda, but they are kinda wishy-washy when it comes to how decisively they want to renegotiate things with the EU. ANEL's stance on that matter is more resolute (having essentialy been founded as a break-away rebel faction of New Democracy when Samaras sucumbed to the pro-Austerity line.)

So Tsipras went with ANEL for two reasons probably, for not having to combat appeasers in his own government coalition and also, (since ANEL has less seats in parliament than Potami) to get a bigger percentage of the overall government responsibility.

Wait so who won?

Not surprized about the Syriza-ANEL coalition.

To Potami is much closer to Syriza in many point of their political agenda, but they are kinda wishy-washy when it comes to how decisively they want to renegotiate things with the EU. ANEL's stance on that matter is more resolute (having essentialy been founded as a break-away rebel faction of New Democracy when Samaras sucumbed to the pro-Austerity line.)

So Tsipras went with ANEL for two reasons probably, for not having to combat appeasers in his own government coalition and also, (since ANEL has less seats in parliament than Potami) to get a bigger percentage of the overall government responsibility.

Here is a map with an overall look on the election results:

http://ekloges2015.dolnet.gr/

Apparently, Golden Dawn made its strongest showing in Sparta with 10%.

And here's a nice photo on what kind of relationship PASOK's Evangelos Venizelos wants to have with Greek voters:



Goodbye forever, fatass.

The Conez Imperium wrote:Wait so who won?

SYRIZA won just two seats shy of an absolute majority and have form a coalition government with the equally anti-austerity yet right-wing ANEL.

The Conez Imperium wrote:Wait so who won?

We're all winners!

Mike the Progressive wrote:

The Conez Imperium wrote:Wait so who won?

We're all winners!

Tell that to New Democracy

Mike the Progressive wrote:

The Conez Imperium wrote:Wait so who won?

We're all winners!

Hurray for Champagne socialism!

Oh Christ that socialist dickhole won. Time to downgrade Greece again.

I'm very disappointed that Golden Dawn didn't win, but maybe if Syriza does bad enough, it will be a golden opportunity for them to fill a vacuum of despair if Greece goes further downhill. Golden Dawn can ride out this storm and make a comeback if they don't repeat the same mistakes.