NationStates

Thought i'd throw up this thread in preperation of the debate tonight.

Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg will be supporting the EU.
United Kingdom Independence Party leader Nigel Farage will be opposing.

This marks (to my knowledge) the first time that a major party leader has taken part in a debate on the EU exclusively, at least for some decades.
Nick Clegg may be fighting for more than the UK's membership, as upshowing UKIP and attacking it's support base may be the only method for the Liberal Democrats to remain the 3rd party in the UK. Recently, UKIP has overtaken them in the polls and is showing no signs of falling below them again, which may be his motivation for challenging Farage to the debate in the first place.

Both Farage and Clegg are talented orators, so this is probably going to be interesting.

I'd like to reiterate my long-standing prediction that Clegg will win in terms of having facts and logic on his side, and Farage will win in terms of getting people angry at foreigners.

Ifreann wrote:I'd like to reiterate my long-standing prediction that Clegg will win in terms of having facts and logic on his side, and Farage will win in terms of getting people angry at foreigners.

But all the god damn Pakis from India are stealing our white women!!

Ifreann wrote:I'd like to reiterate my long-standing prediction that Clegg will win in terms of having facts and logic on his side, and Farage will win in terms of getting people angry at foreigners.

This is probably what will happen.
The issue is that Clegg is an Establishment candidate. If the Pro-EU arguer were non-Establishment like farage is perceived to be, it would be fairly simple to counter his points by arguing that while Brussels politicians are Wankers, so are ours, and what the entire continent needs is more democratic participation, not less.

Clegg will win. He tends to have facts on his side, not illogical fearmongering.

Ostroeuropa wrote:

Ifreann wrote:I'd like to reiterate my long-standing prediction that Clegg will win in terms of having facts and logic on his side, and Farage will win in terms of getting people angry at foreigners.

This is probably what will happen.
The issue is that Clegg is an Establishment candidate. If the Pro-EU arguer were non-Establishment like farage is perceived to be, it would be fairly simple to counter his points by arguing that while Brussels politicians are Wankers, so are ours, and what the entire continent needs is more democratic participation, not less.

But Farage is perceived to be anti-Establishment largely because of his Euroscepticism, and Clegg perceived to be 'Establishment' largely because he's more up to his neck in the wacky world of Brussels than any other (active) politician in the country.

The Scientific States wrote:Clegg will win. He tends to have facts on his side, not illogical fearmongering.

It's Clegg who repeatedly (including just now, in his party political broadcast) rattles off the line that three million jobs depend on our EU membership. This is false. It's based on a disingenuous misreading (that assumes, bizarrely, that all our trade with the EU would cease, and not be replaced by anything, in the event of our withdrawal) of a claim made over a decade ago, before the proportion of our trade with the EU shrunk. What's illogical fearmongering, if not that?

Ifreann wrote:I'd like to reiterate my long-standing prediction that Clegg will win in terms of having facts and logic on his side, and Farage will win in terms of getting people angry at foreigners.

Yeah, that's pretty likely.

Personally I think Farage will win, simply because he is a much better public speaker and debater than Clegg.

The facts are on Cleggs side on this issue, but Farage will "win" as Clegg is basically universally hated. Whenever Clegg jumps on a bandwagon, people jump off it. In fact the best way for Nick Clegg to discredit the right wing anti Europe crowd would be to become one of them, you'd see all the racists instantly become massive Europhiles.

Regardless, its pretty obvious how this will go down. Clegg will say why Europe is good, Farage will spew his usual nonsense, crowd will cheer. Though the funny thing is, people seem to often forget that back before the last election, Clegg was extremely popular, probably more popular than Farage is now. I'm sure if god forbid Farage gets elected somehow he will end up being just as hated as Clegg is now.

Farage will win. Farage has charisma and speaks about issues that ordinary British people face in their daily lives. Farage can point to what's happening right now, from his experience as a Member of European Parliament, and warn the British people. Farage can proclaim that he predicted the series of bailouts needed to keep Southern Europe from going bankrupt. Farage can attack a very unpopular institution and call on old British traditions and values. Farage has the upper hand, at least in terms of rhetoric, charisma and genuine sentiment.

Clegg will speak from his ivory tower, but his ivory tower is so high that the words will scatter in the wind before they reach the ground. Where Farage can point to situations experienced by ordinary Britons every day, Clegg has to find abstract economic statistics that have little to no direct bearing on ordinary people's lives. Clegg can't claim that he predicted the course of the crisis in the European Union, and he'll have to defend a very unpopular institution in the process (since his party has always been heavily in favour of it). He'll have to argue not for British values and the defence of the country he loves, but on the values of a small group of bureaucrats in Belgium and the defence of an organisation that's severely corrupt and bureaucratic. Farage will be the speaker, Clegg will come across as a doomsayer.

Farage has already won.

Hoping that Clegg wins.

As I said in the last thread, Clegg may have all of the facts on his side, but Farage will win for two reasons:
1. He's good and getting people angry at foreigners
2. Practically everybody hates Nick Clegg

I'm also pretty sure that tuition fees will get into the debate somehow.

Britannic Realms wrote:As I said in the last thread, Clegg may have all of the facts on his side, but Farage will win for two reasons:
1. He's good and getting people angry at foreigners
2. Practically everybody hates Nick Clegg

I'm also pretty sure that tuition fees will get into the debate somehow.

Foreigners drive up tuition fees. Or something.

So, why are you all throwing up strawmen? If he is so weak on the facts, why lie about his views?

Ostroeuropa wrote: Recently, UKIP has overtaken them in the polls and is showing no signs of falling below them again, which may be his motivation for challenging Farage to the debate in the first place.

The underlined is demonstrably false.

While UKIP have been ahead of the LibDems in most recent polls, the most recent Guardian/ICM poll shows the LibDems overtaking UKIP again.

The LibDems were on 12%, UKIP on 9%.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablo ... servatives


As to the actual debate, I'll repeat what I said last time this topic came up. Short of a catastrophic Rick Perry-like gaffe by either party leader, anyone predisposed towards Euroscepticism already believes Farage has won, and will argue as much before the debate is even finished; while anyone predisposed towards a pro-European perspective already believes that Clegg has won, and will argue as much before the debate is even finished. Anyone inclined towards the centre-right will likely argue that Farage was more compelling; anyone inclined towards the centre-left will likely argue that Clegg was more compelling.

In all likelihood the debate will do nothing except confirm the prejudices of people who are already politically engaged, and will likely be roundly ignored by anyone who isn't already politically engaged.

Unless Farage gets his tits out for the lads, in which case Tracy (19) from Chelmsford will give him a big thumbs-up on tomorrow's Page 3 in the Sun.

Nigel Farage has the enviable position of arguing from the point of view most British people already support, in my opinion. And he hasn't had an opportunity to let his voter base down in spectacular fashion as Clegg has done yet, so some people might actually still have faith in him. Nick Clegg is an unpopular politician arguing for an unpopular point of view.

Farage has the most to benefit, and Clegg has nothing to lose.

Farage has done his research, and he's an aggressive speaker, so he already dominates the debate. Clegg always sounds apologetic.

Nigel Farage scored a major hit there by reminding Clegg of what he said a decade ago. Now it's the European Union, then it was the Euro.
Clegg is in a poor state now.

I'm tempted to take a drink every time Clegg makes a nauseating cliché (like "pull up the drawbridge"). Also, Clegg is making a false dichotomy in suggesting that it's either the open-door policy of EU membership or banning all European immigration - rather, outside the EU we'd be able to decide our own immigration policy. He also seems to (still) believe leaving the EU would shut down all trade with them too.

Clegg seems to be handling things pretty well right now.

Angleter wrote:

The Scientific States wrote:Clegg will win. He tends to have facts on his side, not illogical fearmongering.

It's Clegg who repeatedly (including just now, in his party political broadcast) rattles off the line that three million jobs depend on our EU membership. This is false. It's based on a disingenuous misreading (that assumes, bizarrely, that all our trade with the EU would cease, and not be replaced by anything, in the event of our withdrawal) of a claim made over a decade ago, before the proportion of our trade with the EU shrunk. What's illogical fearmongering, if not that?

DING-DING-DING-DING-DING!

Also, nice new graphic showing our trade with the EU: https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/448 ... to/1/large

Wolfmanne wrote:Clegg seems to be handling things pretty well right now.

He's using the same stale threats he and his party used ten years ago.
"If we don't join the Euro, we'll lose three million jobs!"

Quintium wrote:

Wolfmanne wrote:Clegg seems to be handling things pretty well right now.

He's using the same stale threats he and his party used ten years ago.
"If we don't join the Euro, we'll lose three million jobs!"

The Euro issue was different and largely irrelevant. All Farage did was make Clegg look a tad more unreliable to the audience watching by comparing the current arguments of Eurorealists and Europhiles, which are much more rational than what the people advocating the Euro were saying, which could be narrowed down 'we don't have to exchange money at the Bureau de Change'. These figures here are pretty damning especially.

Those who believe that facts will win this battle are mistaken. Why I believe this, is when was the last time that facts won in a political debate? I hope the facts win and fear mongers lose. But, as history shows the fear mongers usually win.