US Senate Elections thread, 2014 Edition!

[New Chalcedon]

Now that I've got your attention....I hope to God that CTOAN doesn't kill any puppies, but in case he's reading this: It's less than a year out now, and I think it's appropriate to start a thread on the topic. So...please don't shoot the dog, CTOAN.

The purpose of this thread is this: To air relevant facts about the mechanics and predicted outcomes of the thirty-three Senate elections presently scheduled to be held on November 4, 2014. The purpose of this thread is not to cheerlead about specific candidates, parties or policies. Everyone will have their biases; that is expected. However, everyone who participates in this thread is expected to do their best to avoid allowing those biases to colour their predictions of outcomes/reporting of events, or at least to admit to them up-front.

With no more ado, here is my starting (1/8/14) projection for the outcome of the Senate races in 2014. Individual races that are not slam-dunks for the incumbent will each have a post of their own, ordered first by incumbent party then by the name of the State. Ratings are as follows:

Safe Republican - Absent a political earthquake (or the proverbial live boy/dead girl scenario), the Republican nominee will win.
Tilt Republican - The race heavily favours the Republican nominee, but a Democratic victory is not out of entirely out of the question.
Lean Republican - The Republican nominee has a significant advantage at this point in time, but the race is more fluid than "Tilt R" races.
Tossup - At this stage, neither party has an inherent advantage.
Lean Democratic - The Democratic nominee has a significant advantage at this point in time, but the race is more fluid than "Tilt D" races.
Tilt Democratic - The race heavily favours the Democratic nominee, but a Republican victory is not out of entirely out of the question.
Safe Democratic - Absent a political earthquake (or the proverbial live boy/dead girl scenario), the Democratic nominee will win.

NOT UP FOR ELECTION: 32 Democratic, 31 Republican, 2 Independent.

Race summary:

Races sufficiently safe that they don't have separate entries at this point: Alabama, Delaware, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Carolina (special), Tennessee and Wyoming.

Alaska (D): Lean Democratic - Sen. Begich (D) is slightly favoured for re-election.
Arkansas (D): Tossup - Sen. Pryor's (D) race for re-election is a tossup. RATING CHANGED to Lean Republican on 2/4/2014 due to ongoing polling and fundraising weakness on the part of incumbent Sen. Pryor (D).
Colorado (D): Tilt Democratic - Sen. Udall (D) is heavily favoured for re-election. RATING CHANGED 3/5/14 to Lean Democratic with the entry of Rep. Cory Gardner (R-4th) into the race.
Hawaii (D): Safe Democratic - The real action here is the Democratic primary between Sen. Schatz (D) and Rep. Hanabusa (D).
Iowa (D): Lean Democratic - Rep. Braley is slightly favoured to win election to the seat Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is retiring from.
Louisiana (D): Tossup/Lean Republican - Sen. Landrieu's (D) attempt at a 4th term is too close to assign an advantage.
Massachusetts (D): Lean Democratic - Sen. Markey (D) is slightly favoured in his bid for a first full term.
Michigan (D): Tossup - There is no clear favourite to succeed retiring Sen. Carl Levin (D). RATING CHANGED on 2/4/2013 to Lean Republican on 2/4/2014 due to Republican Terri Lynn Land's small polling leads and strong fundraising. Returned to Tossup on 04/15/14 due to a series of polls showing the race too close to call.
Minnesota (D): Tilt Democratic - Sen. Franken (D) is strongly favoured to win a second term.
Montana (D): Tilt Republican - Rep. Daines (R) is strongly favoured to win election to the seat of the retiring Sen. Max Baucus (D).
New Hampshire (D): Tilt Democratic - Sen. Shaheen (D) is strongly favoured to win a second term.
New Jersey (D): Lean Democratic/Tilt Democratic - Sen. Booker (D) is favoured to win a full term. RATING CHANGED to Tilt Democratic 1/21/14 as a result of the scandals erupting around the most prominent Republicans in New Jersey and the GOP's ongoing failure to find a candidate.
North Carolina (D): Tossup - Sen. Hagan's bid for a second term is a tossup.
South Dakota (D): Tilt Republican - Gov. Rounds (R) is strongly favoured to pick up the seat being vacated by Sen. Johnson (D).
Virginia (D): Safe Democratic - Sen. Warner (D) is almost certain to win a second term, most likely with a wide margin. RATING CHANGED to Tilt Democratic 1/21/14 due to entry of a credible Republican.
West Virginia (D): Safe Republican - Unless something changes radically, Rep. Moore Capito will win this vacant seat.

Georgia (R): Lean Republican - Whomever wins the GOP primary will have a slight advantage to keep this seat red. RATING CHANGED on 02/04/2014 to Lean Democratic due to continued strong polling and fundraising on the part of Michelle Nunn (D) and the ongoing five-way primary between the Republican candidates.
Kentucky (R): Tossup - Sen. McConnell (R) is not particularly favoured in his bid for a sixth term, and faces challenges on both right and left.
Maine (R): Tilt Republican - Sen. Collins (R) is strongly favoured to win the election.
Mississippi (R): Tilt Republican/Tossup - Sen. Cochran is being challenged from the right. If he loses the primary, this seat becomes a credible pickup opportunity for Democrats.
Texas (R): Tilt Republican - Sen. Cornyn is heavily favoured to win a fourth term in office.

CURRENT (1/10/14) prediction for Senate composition in 1/15: 44D/45R/2I, with 9 too evenly-balanced to assign an advantage.

For a majority (51 seats), the Republican Party need to win 6 of these 9 seats, assuming that all "leaning" or "tilting" races go toward their present party.

For a majority (50 seats plus Vice-President Biden's tiebreaking vote), the Democratic Party needs to win either 4 of these seats plus guarantees that both Independents continue to caucus with them, or 5 seats to continue to enjoy a majority with the support of Sen. Sanders (I-VT) alone.

Under this scenario, and assuming that each "tossup" seat has a precisely 50% chance of falling either way, the Republican Party has a roughly 25% chance of winning the 6 (or more) "tossup" seats that it needs for majority, the Democratic Party has a 25% chance of retaining the 6 (or more) seats that it needs to keep a majority without the co-operation of the Independent Senators, and a further 50% chance of retaining the 4 or 5 seats that will continue to grant it a working majority with the co-operation of those Senators.

It's very likely that, come January 2015, Sen. Reid's continued occupation of the post of Senate Majority Leader will be dependent upon his ability to inspire Sens. King and Sanders that he is a better choice for the job than whichever Republican is his counterpart. In a good sign for Democrats, both Senators voted for the recent "nuclear option jr." rule change put forward by the Democrats, indicating a deep dislike of Republican tactics in the Senate to date.

And 3, 2, 1…..have at it! Feel free to add your own analyses, thoughts – feel free to tell me if I’m being stupidly optimistic/pessimistic for one side or the other, or even if I'm missing something obvious! And please let me repeat:

The purpose of this thread is not to cheerlead about specific candidates, parties or policies.

[New Chalcedon]

Alaska

Background: One-term Sen. Mark Begich (D) is running for re-election.

2008 result: Mark Begich (D) 47.8%, Ted Stevens (R-inc) 46.5% - D gain from R.

Significant candidates:

Sen. Mark Begich (D-inc)
Lt.-Gov Mead Treadwell (R)
Former Attorney-General Dan A. Sullivan (R)
2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller (R)

Analysis:

Senator Mark Begich (D-AK) is in for a fight this election, and every election. Alaska is a Republican-dominated State - 2012 marked the first time since 1968 that the Democratic candidate for President cracked 40% of the vote - and Republicans currently occupy four of the five statewide-elected partisan offices (Governor, Lieutenant-Governor, Representative At-Large and one Senator) and enjoy large majorities in both chambers of the Alaska legislature. As one might expect of such a realistic pickup opportunity, Republicans are lining up to challenge Sen. Begich, promising a bloody primary battle....which, perversely, might prove to be Sen. Begich's salvation. Thus far, the Republican candidates of substance (i.e., with any realistic chance of winning the primary, or at least making a good showing in it) are Lt.-Governor Mead Treadwell, 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller and former Attorney-General Dan A. Sullivan, with continuous mentions of the possibility of former Governor and Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin entering the race.

From Begich's perspective, the following are "plus" factors: A potentially bloody and brutal GOP primary with a possibility of Joe Miller or Sarah Palin being the eventual nominee, a strong record of constituent response (retail politics is particularly important in relatively small electorates such as Alaska), the fact that he is running essentially unopposed in the Democratic primary, the present polling placing him at or near 50% of the vote with a sizeable pool of undecided voters and a generally centrist, pro-oil voting record in the Senate. On the minus side, of course, is the heavy Republican tilt of Alaska and the fact that the NRSC will be targeting the hell out of this race - if Mitch McConnell wants to become the Senate Majority Leader, a Republican almost has to win this seat.

Overall rating at present: Lean Democratic. Sen. Begich will have to fight for a second term, but at present the signs are looking good for him.

***

Arkansas

Background: Two-term Sen. Mark Pryor (D) is running for re-election.

2008 result: Mark Pryor (D-inc) 79.5%, Rebekah Kennedy (Grn) 20.5% - D Hold.

Significant candidates:

Sen. Mark Pryor (D-inc)
Rep. Tom Cotton (R)

Analysis:

It may seem odd to say this after seeing Sen. Pryor's thumping result from 2008 - the Republican Party didn't even put up a candidate, despite the fact that their nominee carried the State 59%-39% - but Mark Pryor may well be one of the Democratic casualties in this year's Senate elections. It may make more sense when taking Arkansas's recent Republican turn into context - AR has for some time been reliably Republican at the Presidential election, but consistently elected Democrats for virtually every other office. However, that ended in 2010 - the Republican Party seized three of Arkansas' four Congressional districts (picking up the fourth in 2012), the Senate seat up for election that year (Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) lost by twenty points to Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)), the offices of Lt.-Governor, Secretary of State and Lands Commissioner and flipped both chambers of the Legislature.

In short, Arkansan politics have taken a hard red turn, and Sen. Pryor will be fighting for his political life later this year. On the downside (from the incumbent's perspective), his opponent, Rep. Tom Cotton, will have an uncontested path to the Republican nomination, the polls are showing Sen. Pryor in the low-to-mid 40s of percents and the attack ads from out of state are already rolling. On the upside, Pryor's campaign has more money than God and name recognition to spare, the polling still generally shows him in the lead and the Affordable Care Act (aka "Obamacare") might actually do well in Arkansas, being as Little Rock has co-operated with Washington on the issue. If it does, then the most potent Republican talking point against Pryor disappears.

Overall rating at present: Tossup - Mark Pryor should be feeling nervous....very nervous, but not necessarily defeatist just yet.

***

Colorado

Background: One-term Sen. Mark Udall (D) is running for re-election.

2008 Results: Mark Udall (D) 53%, Bob Schaffer (R) 43% - D gain from R (Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) retired).

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Mark (Another Mark? What were they doing, holding a fire sale on the name?!) Udall (D-inc)
Ken Buck (R), Weld County DA and 2010 Republican nominee for Senate.
State Sen. Randy Baumgartner (R).
State Rep. Amy Stephens (R).

Analysis:

Mark Udall, the third Democratic Senator whose chances of re-election are being examined and the third Mark of the bunch, is sitting more or less in the catbird seat in Colorado. Colorado is a swing State that has a rough parity of Democratic and Republican elected officials - both Senators and the Governor are Democrats and the Democratic Party holds a small majority in the Colorado Senate and a rather larger one in the Colorado House of Representatives, but Republicans hold a 4-3 advantage in Congressional seats.

Thus far, the Republican field is distinctly lackluster: the highest-profile candidate, by a long margin, is District Attorney, Tea Partier and 2010 Senate nominee Ken Buck, who is generally regarded as having sunk his own candidacy with a laundry-list of extreme positions, including a total ban on abortion including in cases of rape or incest, a professed belief that homosexuality is a choice and support (partially walked back) for privatization of VA hospitals.

Thus far, the plus factors for the incumbent (Udall) are as follows: The electorate doesn't appear hostile, his campaign has gobs of cash, and his likely opponent (who looks like at least having to work for the nomination) has a track record of shooting himself in the foot - and lost in 2010, meaning that he's unlikely to do better in 2014 than he did then. On the downside, various Republican-affiliated groups (such as the NRA) are flexing their muscles in Colorado after a pair of successful recalls of incumbent Democrats in Democratic-leaning districts and are likely to lend Buck's campaign (assuming he's the nominee) a lot of assistance. In addition, the polling is not - at this time - showing the incumbent particularly close to 50% of the vote, although he's still sporting leads over all of his potential opponents.

Overall rating at present: Tilt Democratic. While an upset isn't out of the question, I somehow doubt that the 2010 Senate candidate will do better in 2014 - a year not shaping up to be a Democratic bloodbath thus far - than he did then. Essentially, Udall is looking like he'll get to skate with a weak opponent and has gobs of money just in case things start turning sour.

***

Hawai'i (special election)

Background: Appointed Sen. Brian Schatz (D) is running for the remainder of Sen. Inouye’s term.

2010 Results: Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-inc) 75%, former State Rep. Campbell Cavasso (R) 22% - D Hold.

Significant Candidates:

Sen Brian Schatz (D-inc)
Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Former State Rep. and 2010 nominee Campbell Cavasso (R)

Analysis: The real action here, in deep-blue Hawai'i, is going to be in the Democratic primary. Incumbent Brian Schatz was appointed after the death of long-time Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) in December 2012. Inouye had reportedly requested on his deathbed that his protege, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-1st) be appointed in the event of his death; however, Gov. Neil Abercrombie instead appointed his Lieutenant-Governor.....who now wants to keep the seat.

The contested primary has exposed a nasty division at the heart of the Hawaii Democratic Party's establishment, with various figures lining up behind either Rep. Hanabusa or Sen. Schatz. Thus far, the polling between them is relatively even (with a slight shift from marginal Hanabusa leads to marginal Schatz leads) and the fireworks promise to be intense. Complicating matters, Abercrombie (Schatz' chief ally) will be running for a second term as Governor at the same time.

To the extent that the Republican Party's hapless nominee has any chance at all in this election, it is to be found in the remote possibility that Hanabusa and Schatz bloody each other so badly that the eventual "winner" can't effectively campaign. Unlikely, to say the least.

Overall rating at present: Safe Democratic. The Republican Party is running a candidate, so they can technically win. But since that candidate's name isn't Linda Lingle, it would set off a political earthquake for him to win.

[New Chalcedon]

Iowa

Background: Five-term Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is retiring. Open seat.

2008 Results: Sen. Tom Harkin (D-inc) 63%, Christopher Reed 37% - D hold.

Significant Candidates:

Rep. Bruce Braley (D-1st)
Sam Clovis, radio host (R)
Matt Whittaker, former DA and 2002 nominee for Treasurer (R)
State Sen. Joni Ernst (R-12th)

Analysis:

Sen. Tom Harkin's (D-IA) decision to vacate this seat rather than run for a seventh term surprised a number of people, especially after his thumping 2008 victory. Perhaps, having been Iowa's junior Senator for all thirty years of his tenure, he's had enough of it? Particularly since Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is giving every sign of gearing up to run for yet another term in 2016 (if so, it will be his 7th). If so, I can't blame him - spending 30 years in someone else's shadow - especially a political opponent's shadow - has to wear on a person. Either way, he's retiring, and leaving an open seat behind him which the Democrats have to defend.

Rep. Bruce Braley, the presumptive Democratic nominee and Harkin's endorsed successor, is starting this race with two significant advantages: widespread name recognition (being the Congressman for a quarter of Iowa), and a chance to campaign in the general election while his Republican opponents are still fighting it out in the primary. Ironically, the Republican who polls show winning the primary easily (Bob Vander Plaats) has thus far declined to enter the race, although he hasn't ruled it out, leaving a trio of lesser lights and also-rans to duke it out.

Overall, Braley enjoys a significant, but not overwhelming, advantage - he is busily stockpiling cash while his opponents have to spend their, Iowa has a very slight Democratic lean, he's lined up a veritable constellation of endorsements, he has better name recognition than any of his opponents, and the polls show him sporting modest leads.

Overall rating at present: Lean Democratic. If the Democratic Party's fortunes turn sour, they may take Braley's chances at a promotion as collateral damage. However, he has the upper hand at this point.

***

Louisiana

Background: Three-term Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is running for a fourth term.

2008 Results: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-inc) 52%, John Kennedy (R) 46% - D hold.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-inc)
Rep. Bill Cassidy (R)
State Rep. Paul Hollis (R)

Analysis: The Bayou State is a ruby-red Republican stronghold and has been since Katrina led to a mass exodus of African-Americans from the State; incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu (D) is the only statewide elected Democrat, and has to fight for every new term in office. She's not letting that stop her, and has decided to run for a fourth term later this year.

On the upside - from the incumbent's perspective - she has tons of cash, a huge amount of name recognition (Landrieu is a big political name in Louisiana, and Sen. Landrieu has held one statewide office or another since 1988), small leads in the polls (although short of the 50% she needs in Louisiana's jungle-primary electoral system) and the record of her biggest opponent (Cassidy) having donated to her campaign committee ten years ago, allowing her to ask him what's changed.

On the downside - again, from the incumbent's perspective - her most serious opponent is a staid, largely mainstream Republican who can point to a record of working with Democrats on various projects while in Congress (a rare thing these days, although it may backfire on him if he tries it, allowing another Republican to overtake him) and has likewise raised a very useful amount of money, although only about half Landrieu's total.

Overall rating at present: Tossup/Lean Republican. Sen. Landrieu is probably at a slight disadvantage here, although she's no stranger to fighting tough races. This is going to be a race to watch right up until November 5th.

[New Chalcedon]

Massachusetts

Background: Sen. Ed Markey (D) is running for his first full term.

2013 Special Election Results: Rep. Ed Markey (D) 55%, Gabriel Gomez (R) 45% - D hold.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Ed Markey (D-inc)
William Weld (R), former Governor and 1996 Senate nominee.

Analysis:

This race is, perhaps, more interesting than some might expect. When former Sen. Scott Brown (R-South New Hampshire) packed his carpet bags and his pickup truck and moved to New Hampshire to challenge Sen. Jean Shaheen (D-NH), he left behind him an eminently winnable race - the polling showed him a scant point behind Sen. Markey. Go figure. Either he really does love New Hampshire, or he knows something that we don't.....either way, he's out.

Former Governor William "Bill" Weld (R-1991-1997) looks like at least keeping the match interesting. He's not exactly a typical Republican - having filed an amicus curiae brief supporting same-sex marriage in New York (where he was practicing law as of 2012) and won a whopping 71% of the vote in his 1994 re-election campaign for Governor (before going on to lose the 1996 Senate election to John Kerry 53-45), thanks largely to his cautious, pragmatic style of governance. This might make him unpalatable to a Republican primary electorate, but if he gets through that, then he's well-placed to give Sen. Markey a challenge - polls are showing him about 5 points behind, and many Bay Staters have fond memories of his tenure as Governor.

Overall rating at present: Lean Democratic - the fundamentals of the electorate and the race still favour Sen. Markey, but an upset is far from outside the realms of possibility. Definitely a race to keep an eye on for further developments.

***

Michigan

Background: Six-term Sen. Carl Levin (D) is retiring. Open seat.

2008 Results: Sen. Carl Levin (D-inc) 63%, State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R) 34% - D hold.

Significant Candidates:

Rep. Gary Peters (D-14th)
Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R).

Analysis:

Apparently, Sen. Carl Levin (D) has decided that thirty-six years in the Senate are enough, and is hanging his hat up. He leaves behind him a battle royale to succeed him in this Democratic-leaning State. Rep. Gary Peters (D-14th) has tidied up the Democratic nomination nicely, whilst his counterpart, former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R-2002-2010) has more or less done likewise on her side of the fence. Absent a political earthquake, it's going to be Peters vs. Land come November.

And thus far, the two sides seem evenly matched. Michigan's Democratic tilt is cancelled by Land's record as a conscientious and dutiful Secretary of State, allowing her to argue that she can work with Democrats (such as former Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), whom she worked under for her entire tenure). A mysterious lack of enthusiasm for Land among the Republican establishment counters, and is countered by, an equally-mysterious lack of enthusiasm among the Democratic base for Peters (he polled behind both Granholm and Debbie Dingell, wife of long-time Rep. John Dingell, in a hypothetical primary before both women made it clear they weren't interested).

And of course, over the election hangs the shadow of Detroit's bankruptcy and Michigan's ongoing economic woes, which will heavily influence the outcome of the election. If Democrats can persuade Michiganers that Gov. Rick Snyder (R) or his appointees are mismanaging the economy or vindictively targeting Detroit (or that it's due to organic - read: free trade - causes), then the odium should drag Land down. If Republicans can persuade people that it's due to Democratic mismanagement of the city, its finances and Michigan's economy more generally, then it will act as a heavy weight on Peters' campaign.

Overall rating at present: Tossup - There are far too many balls in the air to predict the outcome of this race with any confidence at all. If I had to guess, I'd say that the fundamentals of the race slightly favour Peters - but Detroit is one of several wild cards in this election.

***

Minnesota

Background: One-term Sen. Al Franken (D) is running for re-election.

2008 Results: Al Franken (DFL) 42%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-inc) 42%, former Sen. Dean Barkley (Independence) 15% - D gain from R.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Al Franken (DFL-inc)
State Rep. Jim Abeler (R)
State Sen. Julianne Ortman (R)
Mike McFadden, businessman (R)
Chris Dahlberg, Chairman of St. Louis Board of Commissioners (R)

Analysis:

The circumstances by which Sen. Al Franken (DFL) won his Senate seat should require no further introduction, having accounted for six months of US political soap opera immediately after the 2008 elections. Given the incredibly close margin of victory, and the fact that 2014 isn't looking like a particularly bumper year for Democrats, one might imagine that Sen. Franken would be at a disadvantage in seeking re-election. One would be wrong to imagine this. There is a virtual laundry-list of reasons why Sen. Franken is heavily favoured for re-election, and here are a few of them.

First, the Minnesota GOP is a trainwreck - they were expelled from their own headquarters for inability to pay the rent, and it's only gone downhill for them since then.

Second, Minnesota has a narrow, but undeniable, Democratic tilt.

Third, both of the Republicans of any stature in Minnesota (former Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Sen. Norm Coleman) have declined to run, leaving a quartet of lesser-known Republicans to fight it out for the nomination.

Fourth, the polling - such as has been released to date - has shown Sen. Franken (who decided not to act the part of 'class clown' for the Senate, garnering significant respect across the board) at or near 50% against all comers, who lag between 10 and 15 points behind him.

Fifth, Sen. Franken has raised particularly large piles of money whilst his opponents are forced to spend theirs fighting for the nomination.

Overall rating at present: Tilt Democratic - It's possible that Al Franken could become a one-term Senator....but unlikely.

***

Montana

Background: Six-term Sen. Max Baucus (D) is retiring. Open seat.

2008 Results: Sen. Max Baucus (D-inc) 73%, Bob Kelleher (R) 27% - D hold.

Significant Candidates:

Lt.-Gov John Walsh (D)
Former Lt.-Gov. John Bohlinger (It's complicated)
Rep. Steve Daines (R)

Analysis:

This is going to be a tough hold for the Montana Democratic Party, if it can be held at all. Veteran Senator Max Baucus, a conservative Democrat who had held the seat for longer than most NSGers have been alive, is retiring...and the Democratic nomination is far from a done deal. Lieutenant-Governor John Walsh was the first Democrat of significance to enter the race (after former Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) finally declined to enter after much hemming and hawing), but he was joined not long after by former Republican, former Independent and former Lieutenant-Governor John Bohlinger, who served under the immensely popular Schweitzer.

Much of the Democratic establishment (although Schweitzer has pointedly stayed out of it - Walsh's gaining of Baucus' endorsement virtually guaranteed that Schweitzer would refuse to endorse him) has united behind Walsh, which has led to Bohlinger running an insurgent, 'outsider' style of campaign, running as much against the Democratic establishment as against Walsh. And, to boot, the polling is showing Daines far ahead of either Walsh or Bohlinger in the general election, meaning that the two Democrats are likely to fight it to the bitter end over a valueless nomination.

Whichever way this turns out - a wounded Walsh facing off against Daines with the party's help, or Bohlinger winning the nomination only to be snubbed in the general by the establishment he scorned in the primary - it's looking quite good for Rep. Daines, whose simplest path to victory right now amounts to "gather cash, sit tight and don't say anything stupid".

Overall rating at present: Tilt Republican - Absent a significant turnaround in the fundamentals, Steve Daines will be the next Senator from Montana. I''ll be surprised if he wins less than 55% of the vote.

[New Chalcedon]

New Hampshire

Background: One-term Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is running for re-election.

2008 Results: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 52%, Sen. John Sununu (R-inc) 45% - D gain from R.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Jeanne Shahenn (D-inc)

No significant Republicans have declared; however, it is widely speculated that former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) moved to the Granite State for the sole purpose of contesting this election.

Analysis:

Some political observers - myself among them - are disappointed by at least one fact in this race. Specifically, that former Sen. John Sununu (R) didn't go for a tiebreaker with Sen. Shaheen, whom he defeated with a narrow but respectable margin in 2002, and lost to by a similar margin six years later. Instead, there are a pack of also-rans running for the Republican nomination and the chance to get smooshed by Sen. Shaheen in November. And, of course, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) – and his pickup truck – have moved to New Hampshire.

Shaheen may not have all that much money - indeed, she raised the lowest total of any incumbent running for re-election in Q3 2013 - but retail politics matters more than money in smaller States like New Hampshire, and her robust approval ratings are indication that her seat isn't really up for grabs. And if that's not enough, the 10+ point margin she's sporting against all comers (including Generic Republican, aka "Republican Jesus", who gets to run on the brand name but has no personal flaws) and the fact that she's at or near 50% of the vote with a ton of undecideds should make it abundantly clear.

Overall rating at present: Tilt Democratic - this election could become competitive under the right circumstances, but as is, Sen. Shaheen should cruise to a second term.

***

New Jersey

Background: Sen. Cory Booker (D) is running for a first full term in office.

2013 special election results: Mayor Cory Booker (D) 55%, fmr. Mayor Steve Lonegan (R) 44% - D gain from R.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Cory Booker (D-inc)

No Republican has as yet filed for the election, although it's a given that at least one will in this light-blue State.

Analysis:

Cory Booker, then the Mayor of Newark, easily cruised to a special election victory over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan in October to fill the seat of the late, great, Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), who died in June at the age of 89. Apparently, the convincing nature of his victory has discouraged any Garden State Republicans from jumping into the race, although a number of them - including Lt.-Gov. Kim Guadagno - are considering the possibilities. He will certainly not get to skate without a significant opponent in November the way Gov. Christie (R) did last year.

Sen. Booker's numbers are fairly weak - he leads Lt.-Gov. Guadagno by just three points in PPP's latest survey - but balanced against that, New Jersey does lean Democratic, and his already-formidable war chest continues to add cash at a spectacular rate, whereas a challenge by Guadagno would start with zilch - as Christie's running mate, she didn't have her own campaign committee or fundraising apparatus, and isn't entitled to carry over any of the funds their joint campaign has accumulated. Of course, given that Christie was quite happy to keep her as his Lieutenant-Governor for a second term, he's likely to help a "Guadagno for Senate" campaign out here and there...although that may matter less than before if the scandal over the Ft. Lee bridge closure continues to gain traction and make Christie look bad.

Overall rating at present:Tilt Democratic if Guadagno does not enter, Lean Democratic if she does. Enthusiastic backing by Gov. Christie could make all the difference in this race, and Guadagno is the only potential candidate with any particular expectation of it.

***

North Carolina

Background: One-term Sen. Kay Hagan (D) is running for re-election.

2008 Results: State Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 53%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R-inc) 44% - D gain from R.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Kay Hagan (D-inc).
State Rep. Thom Tillis (R), Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives.
Mark Harris (R), President of the North Carolina Baptist State Convention and preacher.
Greg Bannon (R), physician and Tea Party activist.
Heather Grant (R), nurse practitioner and Tea Party activist.
Bill Flynn (R), radio host and 2012 candidate for the 6th Congressional District.

Analysis:

As you may be able to tell by the long list of Republicans putting their hands up for the job, the North Carolina Senate seat is considered to be highly-competitive this year. Ironically, in their haste to unseat her, the bevy of Republican candidates may end up assuring her victory - the present "leading candidate" is State Rep. Thom Tillis, Speaker of the (incredibly unpopular) state House of Representatives, and the wingnut vote looks likely to divide itself among multiple candidates.

While Hagan's poll numbers have slipped after the botched rollout of healthcare.gov, that is likely to prove a somewhat transitory effect and she seems to be starting from a solid base of 45% of the vote. Additionally to this, Sen. Hagan has raised a stupendous amount of money - well over four times that of her nearest Republican challenger, who must moreover spend a portion of that on winning the primary. Between that, the fact that Hagan won in 2008 despite being outspent 2-1 and the inevitable "clown car" effect of a crowded primary full of Tea Partiers, this race is not quite so GOP-favoured as some might claim.

Overall rating at present: Tossup - This race is very much in the air. It should settle down at least some when a clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination emerges, or if it takes a long time for one to do so.

***

South Dakota

Background: Three-term Sen. Tim Johnson (D) is retiring. Open seat.

2008 Results: Sen. TIm Johnson (D-inc) 62.5%, State Rep. Joel Dykstra (R) 37.5% - D hold.

Significant Candidates:

Rick Weilland (D), former staffer to Sen. Tom Daschle (D), Congressional candidate in 2002.
Mike Rounds (R), former Governor of South Dakota.
State Rep. Stace Nelson (R).
Kurt Evans (Libertarian), 2002 nominee.

Analysis:

If the Republicans pick up one seat - just one! -in the Senate this cycle, this will be the one. South Dakota is extremely red. The Democratic Party barely has a bench, and their one top-tier candidate (former Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin) declined to enter the race. Polling is showing Rounds with a commanding lead over Weilland, although he fails to reach 50% in the most recent poll. More importantly, Weilland seems to have a hard ceiling of 40% of the vote, which will be pushing it to win even with the potential spoiler effect from the Libertarian Party.

Overall rating at present: Tilt Republican - This race could become competitive, but it's not likely to at the moment. And even if it does, Rounds enjoys a solid advantage in both the primary and the general. About the only thing that will make this race genuinely competitive is if Rounds loses the primary or the Libertarian candidate starts siphoning serious numbers of votes from the Republican winner's campaign....which is at least possible.

[New Chalcedon]

Virginia

Background: One-term Sen. Mark Warner (D) is running for re-election.

2008 Results: Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) 65%, Former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) 34% - D gain from R.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Mark Warner (D-inc).

No significant Republican candidate has entered the race.
UPDATE 1/10/14: Former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie (R) has announced that he'll enter the race, although the official announcement will come the week starting 1/13/14.

Analysis:

One-term Democratic Senator in an increasingly Democratic-leaning swing State. Check.
Fantastically rich one-term Democrat who can self-finance his re-election campaign. Check.
No prominent Republican willing to enter the race. Check - not that I can blame them after watching what happened to Gilmore in 2008 and Allen in 2012. EDIT: No longer the case - apparently Ed Gillespie (R) has decided to stick his hand into the buzzsaw that is Mark Warner's campaign machine.
Strong polling leads even over those hypothetically-strong Republicans who haven't entered. Check.

Overall rating at present: Safe Democratic - check. Unless a real scandal erupts around him, Sen. Warner should be safe come Hell or high water. This election is likely to be as interesting as watching paint dry - I pity Warner's campaign staff.

***

West Virginia

Background: Four-term Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) is retiring. Open seat.

2008 Results: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-inc) 64%, Jay Wolfe (R) 36% - D hold. The match of the bluejays and the red-jays, as it were.

Significant Candidates:

Natalie Tennant (D), Secretary of State for West Virginia.
Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-2nd).

Analysis:

West Virginia is another of those very white, very conservative States that - even after it became a reliably Republican State for Presidential elections- continued to send Democrats to Washington. It appears that this is a trend on the decline in WV as elsewhere (see: Arkansas, Louisiana, etc.) and the lower-level elections are moving to fall in line with the Presidential toplines. The Democratic Party still holds a lot of power in West Virginia, and they managed to recruit a top-tier candidate in Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, but that's probably not going to be enough to interrupt Rep. Shelley Moore Capito's steady march to victory. West Virginia - after South Dakota - is the second most likely Republican pickup, and it would take a Democratic wave to keep it.

Overall rating at present: Safe Republican - I wonder if Shelley Moore Capito will choose to be addressed as "Senator Moore", "Senator Capito" or "Senator Moore Capito"? It should be amusing.

[New Chalcedon]

Georgia

Background: Two-term incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) is retiring. Open seat.

2008 Results: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-inc) 49.8% (57% runoff), Jim Martin (D) 47% (43% runoff) – R hold.

Significant Candidates:

Michelle Nunn (D), daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA).
Rep. Paul Broun (R-10th).
Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-11th).
Rep. Jack Kingston (R-1st).
Former Secretary of State for Georgia Karen Handel and former VP of Susan B. Anthony for the Cure Karen Handel (R-long title!).

Analysis:

I'll be perfectly honest (and interject a personal note into this): I'm only too glad to see the back of outgoing Sen. Saxby Chambliss, in a very personal fashion that I am not when other Republicans leave Congress. That's because as far as I'm concerned, any draft-dodger who attacks a triple amputee war veteran who gave three limbs to his country over a perceived lack of courage and uses that as the basis of his campaign for higher office is a slimy hypocrite who should die in a fire....but he's not running any more, so I won't dwell on him.

To the election: Georgia is still distinctly Republican-leaning; however, Democrats are becoming increasingly competitive there, with speculation that a Clinton candidacy might pick up the Peach State in 2016. Having said that, the Georgia Democrats suffer from a fairly thin bench, relying upon candidates who are either retreads from a generation ago (like former Gov. Roy Barnes, who lost to Nathan Deal in 2010) or family name recognition....which is what they're doing now. Michelle Nunn is the daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA), the legendary conservative Democrat who could probably have won election till the cows came home, and she seems to be shaping up into a decent candidate.

For all of that, this race would still be fairly easy to call a strong Republican advantage on....if it weren't for the crowded primary that the three Republican Congressmen (and former Secretary of State Karen Handel) are engaging in. If the primary heats up as it begins to look like doing, the eventual winner may be bruised, bloodied and too exhausted to deal effectively with Nunn's campaign in the general election.

Overall rating at present: Lean Republican - the fundamentals of this race favour the Republican candidate (whomever they may be), but enough factors are in the air to make this race uncertain at best.

***

Kentucky

Background: Five-term Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) is running for re-election.

2008 Results: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 53%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 47%.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-inc).
Matt Bevin (R), businessman.
Allison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State (D).

Analysis:

George Bush carried Kentucky by 15 points in 2000 and 20 points in 2004. John McCain carried it by 16 points in 2008, and Mitt Romney cleared Barack Obama's vote in 2012 with 22 points to spare. The last time a Democrat won election to the Senate from Kentucky was 1992. So surely, Mitch McConnell need only amble to the relevant offices to win re-election, right? Wrong.

Kentucky is something of a paradox. Despite being reliably Republican at the Presidential level, and for Congress too, the bulk of statewide elective offices (all but the Agriculture Commissioner) are occupied by Democrats. Old Democrats, young Democrats, liberal Democrats, moderate Democrats - they're elected to all levels of power within the Bluegrass State. This is less true than it used to be, as elsewhere in conservative country - Democrats are going to struggle to hold onto the State Assembly later this year - but for now, the Democratic Party enjoys an enviably deep bench in Louisville, and it has coalesced early behind one candidate.

On the other side of the fence, five-term Mitch McConnell has access to more money than God (no, really - he's raised over $16 million so far) and a long string of IOUs with other Republicans' signatures on them, courtesy of his position as Republican leader in the US Senate. What he doesn't have, by all reports, is a track record of accomplishment (there isn't a single bill that bears his name on it, after 30 years in the Senate) or the love of his own constituents (his approval rating is consistently below 40%, which is a very bad place to be for someone seeking re-election). He knows this, and as such makes sure to destroy any potential opponents before they can establish themselves (see: Judd, Ashley for reference).

But that tactic only goes so far, and is going to be difficult to work against an already-elected official with a statewide presence...which is precisely what Allison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State for Kentucky, is and has - and she's put her hand up for his job and has the enthusiastic backing of both the Democratic Party's establishment and its grassroots, both of which are eager to end McConnell's career. On top of this difficulty, McConnell - who aided and abetted the rise o'f the Tea Party at every turn as a means of sabotaging the Democratic Party's policy initiatives - is now facing a serious Tea Party challenge from businessman Matt Bevin. In short, he's deeply unpopular and facing challenges from both the Right and the Left, and is in for the most difficult election campaign of his career.

Oh, and did I mention: Largely because Louisville was quick to set up a state-based insurance exchange and to accept Medicare expansion, the rollout of the Affordable Care Act in deeply-conservative Kentucky has been one of the success stories of the whole program? Bevin will run ads against him in the primary for failing to stop the ACA, and Lundergan Grimes will run ads against him in the general (if he makes it that far) for wanting to take it away....you couldn't pay me enough to be in his shoes this year, particularly after what happened to Dick Lugar in 2012 across the border in Indiana.

What's worse for the Republican Party, the Democrats essentially get to pick their opponent the way Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) did in 2012 - if OFA in Washington decides that they want Lundergan Grimes to face McConnell, they'll run a harsh line of attack ads against McConnell for being "Senator Do-Nothing" for the last 6 years, and ease his path to a primary victory whilst dinging him on the ACA in the process. If OFA decides that Bevin is the weaker opponent, they'll run a series of feel-good pieces about the "comity" and "progress" McConnell has brought to Washington...then savage Bevin for wanting to take away 90,000 Kentuckians' healthcare as soon as he wins the primary.

On the upside, $16 million buys an awful lot of attack ads, McConnell's campaign team is a veteran crew, Kentucky is fundamentally friendly territory for any Republican wanting to go to Washington, and if he can hammer both of his opponents into the ground, he'll probably fall over the finish line. But somehow, I suspect that even if he does, this will be his last term - because everyone can see that he's vulnerable now, and the challenges will only get worse next time.

Overall rating at present: Tossup. Ludergan Grimes had best hope that the primary brawl that's a-brewing actually happens, and that the winner - whoever it is - is bruised and battered. If Bevin punts or gets steamrolled by McConnell, she's in trouble. Otherwise, this is looking like a real blockbuster of a political contest - grab yer popcorn!

***



Maine

Background: Three-term incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) is running for re-election.

2008 Results: Sen. Susan Collins (R-inc) 61%, Rep. Tom Allen (D) 39% - R hold.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Susan Collins (R-inc)
Shenna Bellows (D), former Executive Director of ACLU Maine.

Analysis: For a brief time, it was speculated that Sen. Collins (R) may face a real challenge. However, with the failure of a credible challenge on her right to emerge and the news that no Democratic officeholder is interested in jumping into the race from her left, she looks set to cruise to a re-election victory, albeit one less impressive than her 61-39 romp in 2008.

Overall rating at present: Tilt Republican - While Maine's Democratic leaning means that the Democrats can make the race competitive at any time, thus far they've shown little interest in doing so.

***

Mississippi

Background: Six-term Sen. Thad Cochran (R) is running for a seventh term.

2008 Results: Sen. Thad Cochran (R-inc) 61%, State Rep. Erik Fleming (D) 39% - R hold.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-inc)
State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R)
No Democratic candidate has yet declared for the race; however, speculation persists that Mississippi Attorney-General Jim Hood (D) will run.

Analysis: This race isn't quite as simple as it may seem, despite Mississippi's deep-red leaning. Polling places incumbent Senator Thad Cochran (R) ahead of any potential Democratic challenger, although only marginally so against Attorney-General Jim Hood (D). What's more, Cochran appears to have attracted a credible primary challenge from Tea Partier State Sen. Chris McDaniel, who has already been endorsed by a number of right-wing organizations. While Sen. Cochran remains favoured in both the primary and the general election, so was Charlie Crist in 2010. This race has the potential to heat up, especially if State Sen. McDaniel's campaign continues to gain traction and Hood enters the race.

Overall rating at present: Tilt Republican - if Cochrane wins the primary. If McDaniel wins the primary, it becomes a Tossup.

***

Texas

Background: Two-term Sen. John Cornyn (R) is running for a third term.

2008 Results: Sen. John Cornyn (R-inc) 55%, State Rep. Rick Noriega (D) 43% - R hold.

Significant Candidates:

Sen. Jorn Cornyn (R-inc)
Rep. Steve Stockman (R)
No significant Democrats have declared as of yet.

Analysis: Sen. John Cornyn (R) is not sporting particularly good favourable ratings in polling, yet he appears to be fairly safe in his bid for re-election. The Democratic Party has not yet recruited any particularly credible candidates, and while a primary challenge has emerged to Sen. Cornyn's right in Rep. Steve Stockman, it seems to have gained little traction to date. While Texas is trending slowly away from Republicans, Sen. Cornyn probably won't sweat re-election particularly hard.

UPDATE: It would appear that Sen. Cornyn has simply decided to publicly ignore Rep. Stockman, while privately arranging to bury him in attack ads. About the smartest choice available to him.

Overall rating at present: Tilt Republican - Sen. Cornyn has a large advantage, but doesn't have this one sewn up yet.

[New Socialist South Africa]

I'm predicting Green Party victories in some states.

*Nods and goes back to smoking his weed.*

[Arumdaum]

I'm predicting Green Party victories in some states.

*Nods and goes back to smoking his weed.*

You aren't serious, right?

[New Aerios]

I'm predicting Green Party victories in some states.

*Nods and goes back to smoking his weed.*

You aren't serious, right?

The "*Nods and goes back to smoking his weed*" would imply that he isn't.

[AiliailiA]

Oh gosh. A thread with 7 original posts! You've really put some effort in here.

[Ainin]

I'm predicting Green Party victories in some states.

*Nods and goes back to smoking his weed.*

Nah.

The polls so far make it quite obvious that the CPUSA will win by a landslide.

[New Chalcedon]

Oh gosh. A thread with 7 original posts! You've really put some effort in here.

I was inspired by ASB's 2012 thread. Hopefully, I'll do half as well as he did, although I'm not going to be posting daily/near-daily updates in it unless I have a lot more free time than anticipated.

[AiliailiA]

Oh gosh. A thread with 7 original posts! You've really put some effort in here.

I was inspired by ASB's 2012 thread. Hopefully, I'll do half as well as he did, although I'm not going to be posting daily/near-daily updates in it unless I have a lot more free time than anticipated.

OK. The contributions of Alien Space Bats will be very interesting whoever starts the thread.

[New Socialist South Africa]

I'm predicting Green Party victories in some states.

*Nods and goes back to smoking his weed.*

You aren't serious, right?

No of course I'm not. I'm just dreaming the impossible dream. "Green Party wins seats in senate", "Guantanimo Bay detention centre closed down for good", "Gay Marriage legalised in all states", "record of one whole decade of no school shootings made".

I like doing stuff like that now and again concerning the USA. I don't live there but I have a cousin who does so I find it interesting.

[Agritum]

I guess I'll just spectate.

[Towson]

Republican-Democrat Tie?

[New Socialist South Africa]

I'm predicting Green Party victories in some states.

*Nods and goes back to smoking his weed.*

Nah.

The polls so far make it quite obvious that the CPUSA will win by a landslide.

*Hands him a joint and offers to light it.*

Agreed hey, yoh man they are going to dominate hey.

[New Chalcedon]

Republican-Democrat Tie?

Perhaps in theory. But in practice, it's quite literally impossible, because in all tied votes, the Vice-President of the USA (Joe Biden) gains a vote in the Senate to break such ties. Including on votes for Majority Leader....and somehow, after the last 6 years of utter jackassery from the Republican side of the aisle (filibustering their own ideas, their own bills, everything just to make sure nothing gets done), I can't see Harry Reid agreeing to any kind of power-sharing arrangement. No, the GOP burned that bridge when they decided that the best way to win back power was by breaking the government, then blame the Democrats for it being broken.

Which is why, if the GOP wants a majority, it needs to win at least 50 seats on its own (and woo Senator King (I-VT) into its camp - and his price will be high, since he essentially becomes the Kingmaker of the US Senate in that situation and dislikes the Republicans already) or better, 51 seats, giving it a majority on its own.

[Alien Space Bats]

Michigan

Background: Six-term Sen. Carl Levin (D) is retiring. Open seat.

2008 Results: Sen. Carl Levin (D-inc) 63%, State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R) 34% - D hold.

Significant Candidates:

Rep. Gary Peters (D-14th)
Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R).

Analysis:

Apparently, Sen. Carl Levin (D) has decided that thirty-six years in the Senate are enough, and is hanging his hat up. He leaves behind him a battle royale to succeed him in this Democratic-leaning State. Rep. Gary Peters (D-14th) has tidied up the Democratic nomination nicely, whilst his counterpart, former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R-2002-2010) has more or less done likewise on her side of the fence. Absent a political earthquake, it's going to be Peters vs. Land come November.

And thus far, the two sides seem evenly matched. Michigan's Democratic tilt is cancelled by Land's record as a conscientious and dutiful Secretary of State, allowing her to argue that she can work with Democrats (such as former Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), whom she worked under for her entire tenure). A mysterious lack of enthusiasm for Land among the Republican establishment counters, and is countered by, an equally-mysterious lack of enthusiasm among the Democratic base for Peters (he polled behind both Granholm and Debbie Dingell, wife of long-time Rep. John Dingell, in a hypothetical primary before both women made it clear they weren't interested).

And of course, over the election hangs the shadow of Detroit's bankruptcy and Michigan's ongoing economic woes, which will heavily influence the outcome of the election. If Democrats can persuade Michiganers that Gov. Rick Snyder (R) or his appointees are mismanaging the economy or vindictively targeting Detroit (or that it's due to organic - read: free trade - causes), then the odium should drag Land down. If Republicans can persuade people that it's due to Democratic mismanagement of the city, its finances and Michigan's economy more generally, then it will act as a heavy weight on Peters' campaign.

Overall rating at present: Tossup - There are far too many balls in the air to predict the outcome of this race with any confidence at all. If I had to guess, I'd say that the fundamentals of the race slightly favour Peters - but Detroit is one of several wild cards in this election.

That's a pretty good analysis, all things considered. There are, however, a couple of other factors that need to be considered.

First is the fact that the Governor's race between Rick Synder (the incumbent) and Mark Schauer (former Representative from Michigan's 7th District, who was defeated in the 2010 "Red Wave" election after just one term in Congress). Schauer is considered an energetic candidate, but is still something of an unknown outside his district (which basically covers a rough triangle from Coldwater to Adrian to a point just west of Lansing, and includes both Jackson and Battle Creek [where Schauer lives]). It's likely that there will be a significant overlap between the two races, such that Schauer's success (or lack of it) against Snyder will influence Peters' chances against Land.

It's interesting (or maybe telling) that Land is eliciting only lukewarm support among Republicans; her predecessor, Candice Miller (now Congresswoman from the 10th District [in the eastern part of the State, over by Algonac, St. Clair, and Port Huron]) met with similar disregard when she lofted a trial balloon in 2009-2010 in pursuit of the Governor's office. Land (like Miller) performed extraordinarily well as Secretary of State, an office whose most visible function is to handle automobile and drivers' licenses (other States invest this authority in a Department of Motor Vehicles). In the 90's, trips to the Secretary of State's office rated slightly below dentistry in popularity, partly because they rated slightly higher than dentist's visits in terms of pain and suffering; Miller and Land did a lot to actually make our State's SOS offices efficient, which has in turn lifted both women's political careers.

Yet Republicans as a group have little enthusiasm for Land, as was the case with Miller. Part of that may be the fact that both are seen as "technocrats" rather than "movement" politicians; this in turn reflects one of the great differences between Democrats and Republicans, as Democrats will swoon over any reasonably competent Democratic "technocrat" in a heartbeat. The fact that Snyder is basically seen as a "technocrat" makes things worse for the GOP, since it leaves only one "movement" politician (Attorney General Bill Schuette) on the ticket (although current Secretary of State Ruth Johnson has been more political than Land and Miller were, she's also still seen as a "technocrat"). This will make rallying the GOP base a little harder, especially without a National figure (of either Party) on the ticket to stir them up.

Still, Land is a formidable candidate. Her favorability ratings are good, and she has no apparent cadavers buried in her back yard; this will make attacking her difficult. Democrats are going to want to campaign less against Land and more against Snyder and McConnell, and then rely on their powerful GOTV apparatus to get Peters over the top.

On the other side of the aisle, Peters is an uninspiring politician who (from a Democratic perspective) is damned near perfect when it comes to policy. If elected, he'd be a good replacement for outgoing Senator Carl Levin. As a former Seabee who served in the Gulf, he'd fit right in on the Senate Armed Services Committee; as former Merrill Lynch VP and Wall Street arbitrator — and a supporter of the Occupy movement — he could serve on several of the finance committees and subcommittees where Levin now holds a seat. He's exactly in the middle of the Democratic Party on most of the major issues of the day, in wanting a strong but lean military, being pro-business but wanting consumer reform, and being firmly on the liberal side of all of the trending social issues. But he just doesn't cut a charismatic figure, and that may prove his undoing.

Thus, Republicans will want to campaign against Peters as an avid supporter of Obama (which is not precisely fair; he actually has said that he thinks the current Democratic Party leadership too timid) and as someone who supports all of the President's initiatives. Peters, in turn, is going to want to strike populist economic themes in a State where unemployment is still much too high, and paint Land as all too willing to embrace an obstructionist GOP agenda that would hurt working families (a credible criticism, given that Land is one of Michigan's two representatives on the Republican National Committee, and is thus the very epitome of the "GOP Establishment").

Beyond the issues and personalities, there is also the question of whether or not MIchigan's new Right to Work law has weakened the State's labor unions, and thus made them less effective as an organizational resource for the Democratic Party. Union membership is down since 2011, and Michigan Republicans (or, for that matter, National Republicans) would love to drive a stake through the heart of the labor movement in America and render the country union-free; on the other side of the aisle, unions know that they are facing an existential crisis and are going to exert the maximum effort they can on the Democrats' behalf. The question is: Has the sun set so much on the American labor movement that it's no longer capable of making a difference? If organized labor can't put a thumb on the scale in Michigan and tip the race in Peters' favor (where union membership is 50% higher than across America at large), then perhaps the conservatives' wet dream of a union-free, poverty-wage Nation will at last come true.

Finally, we're going to want to keep an eye on possible ballot initiatives. Both sides have used such initiatives as a vehicle for political mobilization, and sometimes outsiders push proposals onto the ballot that backfire against their preferred side. The recent effort by Michigan Right-to-Life to ban the use of private insurance for abortion coverage in virtually all cases is a potential case of the latter; if opponents can get enough signatures to put the measure on the ballot, then that might well serve as a rallying point for either side — and consequently tip the election either way.

tl&dr: I agree that this race is a Toss-Up; the latest polling by PPP shows Land up by 2% (42-40).

[New Chalcedon]

*snips excellent post*

Very interesting (and enlightening) analysis - I remember you talking about the need for Republican candidates to become someone the base can "empathize" with in the '12 election thread; would you say that the lack of enthusiasm for Land is more of the same?

If so, why is it being felt by the GOP establishment? One might imagine that their chiefest interest is in winning elections, and she's their best shot at it. They, themselves, are for the most part not Tea Partiers - why are they disappointed in a lack of red meat?

Also, do you have any thoughts for any of the other races? I'm worried that my takes on them may be too broad and not deep enough, particularly in races such as Louisiana's or North Carolina's.

[Gallup]

My prediction: Republicans will hold the house and, just barley, get the senate. It'll be close.

[Ngelmish]

There is no way that Lundergan Grimes wins in Kentucky if McConnell loses to Bevin. The biggest obstacle to reelection for McConnell is his own image and personality-- voters simply don't like him very much and he's in a much more toxic environment to be a national figure of any stripe than the last time he ran for office. If Bevin somehow gets through the primary (he won't) Grimes chief advantage will vanish. Then she'll just be running against a rightwing candidate in a state that's solidly red at the federal level. And while Matt Bevin may well be a blowhard, he doesn't go around shooting his mouth off like Todd Akin either.

[New Chalcedon]

There is no way that Lundergan Grimes wins in Kentucky if McConnell loses to Bevin. The biggest obstacle to reelection for McConnell is his own image and personality-- voters simply don't like him very much and he's in a much more toxic environment to be a national figure of any stripe than the last time he ran for office. If Bevin somehow gets through the primary (he won't) Grimes chief advantage will vanish. Then she'll just be running against a rightwing candidate in a state that's solidly red at the federal level. And while Matt Bevin may well be a blowhard, he doesn't go around shooting his mouth off like Todd Akin either.

At least not yet. Primary fights can push one into saying all kinds of things....

But fundamentally, you're right - Bevin (unlike McConnell) is fundamentally an unknown quantity to most Kentuckians, which means that the red hue of Kentucky will help him in defining himself as "Better than Lundergan Grimes", which is what he has to do to win the general.

Of course, that's balanced against the fact that Lundergan Grimes has already won statewide in Kentucky, and with a whopping 20% margin to boot (after defeating a Democratic incumbent in the primary) - she's already established herself as someone who can win statewide in Kentucky, and has already defined herself as someone who lots and lots of Kentuckians can agree with, or at least like enough to vote for (Lundergan Grimes won 30,000 more votes than Governor Beshear did in his re-election campaign on the same ballot). In one election - as a Democrat in Kentucky less than a year after the 2010 red wave - she went from lawyer (without prior political experience) to Secretary of State. She's scary-smart, tough as nails and no-one's idea of a pushover.

Basically, will Bevin's "He's a Republican without an unpleasant history in a very red-leaning State" factor be better in dealing with that (from GOP perspectives) than McConnell's veteran campaign machine, gobs of money and effectively unlimited ability to raise more at the drop of a hat?

An interesting question, and one that I'd imagine that Kentucky Republican Party hierarchs are all thinking about constantly as they consider who to endorse in the primary. It's not as cut-and-dried as you make it out to be. Frankly, whoever the winner of the GOP primary is, they'll be sweating bullets all the way to Election Night even if they eventually win.

(PS: There's also the fact that the largely-positive rollout of Kynect, with literally thousands of success stories among poor, white, rural Appalachians may well turn Kentucky rapidly less Republican - but that's speculation without evidence as yet.)

[New Chalcedon]

My prediction: Republicans will hold the house and, just barley, get the senate. It'll be close.

Interesting. Any thoughts on which way any specific Senate elections will go?