NationStates

I would encourage the OP to make sure they review the scripting rules and ensure that their tool is in compliance. When in doubt, file a GHR with any questions.

Raionitu wrote:So if I understand this right, your thing would not be aimed for tag runs, it would be for finding sleepers and predicting occupations before they happen, correct?
And that would be based on the 'patterns' that raider sleepers usually follow?
Also, what would you do one you detect a suspected raider sleeper, supposing my above assumptions are true?

Think of it like antivirus software. There are signatures, and there are heuristics. Right now, we're working on a heuristic system which can be used to detect new, as-of-yet unknown raider nations. We will, however, eventually augment this engine with a continuation of our previous database of known raiders, just to increase the effectiveness of the system (if only marginally).

Once suspicious activity is detected, the player using the engine will have to telegram the acting delegate and founder of the region (if possible) or rustle up a team of defenders to take the region for themselves to prevent the raid. We've experimented with this a bit using an older system, and found that most of the time, the founder or delegate are available to defend their own regions. So having a team of defenders usually isn't necessary unless there is no founder or delegate.

Reploid Productions wrote:I would encourage the OP to make sure they review the scripting rules and ensure that their tool is in compliance. When in doubt, file a GHR with any questions.

We have reviewed the rules for using the site's world, region and nation APIs, and are in compliance. When we add more code, we'll be subject to more rules and will deal with them at that point.

Belmaria wrote:
Regarding the delay in the API, it's not something we can work around from a technical standpoint. We are working on a browser plugin that allows multiple users to use our engine, which will decrease the effective wait time.

If you mean you'll be using what amounts to distributive computing--having more than one person collect different data to store at a central location so to avoid the API limit--then all I've seen here is enough to know I wouldn't touch your script, and neither should others.

Edit: if delegates were so adept at defending a region, why don't they? Because they don't have the knowledge or training to eject nations fast enough. At some level, it just makes more sense for every region to be ready to be raided at every update.

Severisen wrote:

Belmaria wrote:
Regarding the delay in the API, it's not something we can work around from a technical standpoint. We are working on a browser plugin that allows multiple users to use our engine, which will decrease the effective wait time.

If you mean you'll be using what amounts to distributive computing--having more than one person collect different data to store at a central location so to avoid the API limit--then all I've seen here is enough to know I wouldn't touch your script, and neither should others.

We have no plans to centrally store any data beyond our database of known raiders, which relies upon voluntary contributions at the moment.

Also, I find it interesting that most of the people throwing shade at our idea are raiders.

Belmaria wrote:

Severisen wrote:
If you mean you'll be using what amounts to distributive computing--having more than one person collect different data to store at a central location so to avoid the API limit--then all I've seen here is enough to know I wouldn't touch your script, and neither should others.

We have no plans to centrally store any data beyond our database of known raiders, which relies upon voluntary contributions at the moment.

Also, I find it interesting that most of the people throwing shade at our idea are raiders.

Not a raider, and not even close to being one but let me add my pennies: I am severely concerned at the legality of your proposed ideas. I would caution anyone even considering any form of association with you to double, if not triple check any proposed projects with the Mods via a GHR prior to testing or using anything that comes from this "project" in a live environment.

Raiders have felt the keen sting of betrayal with regards to scripts.

Although this will make our project easier to reverse engineer, our code will be open source once we release it to the public. That should help dispel any rumours regarding our supposed illegitimacy.

Do you mind me asking how many people are working on this, because you keep using the plural forms (we, our, etc.)

And of this people, how many of them have any form of experience with R/D. If any do, how much?

See, the reason I ask this is because you said you have no experience with R/D. I hate to say it, but those RMB posts from earlier show it quite plainly. You can try to proclaim that experience doesn't matter but it really does. It is painfully important.

If it's only you working on the project, I have several concerns. Hell, I have concerns even with more than just you working on the project. I was not involved (or active) during Predator scandal but I have still observed the ramifications of it, and am leery of scripts and such.

Still, best of luck to you (and to anyone else working on it, if they indeed exist)

Belmaria wrote:Although this will make our project easier to reverse engineer, our code will be open source once we release it to the public. That should help dispel any rumours regarding our supposed illegitimacy.

If your code is open source, nobody will have to reverse engineer it. The code is right there to use.

Belmaria wrote:

Tim-Opolis wrote:Let's cut the bullshit, eh lad? How much experience with R/D do you have, like actual on-field experience. Because this is me, an R/Der of 6.5 years, telling you that this does not look like an effective system. You have in no way demonstrated how it's practically better than using the combination of the activity and reports page, you haven't even demonstrated that this script even exists, you certainly don't have anybody buying its legality until a source code is posted up for analysis, and you most definitely haven't demonstrated any significant amount of R/D experience that should make any defender look at this and conclude "Sure, this looks viable".

Also, watching all of the world's relocations is not even close to a waste of time, and whatever your algorithm is, the only way it could catch all invader nations is if it literally does look at *all* the world's relocations, unless you're just cutting the very basic stuff like moves to GCRs which even then have frequently been invader in the cases of places like Balder and such.

I don't expect people like you to even understand, let alone support, what we're doing here. If something isn't physical, tangible, and two feet in front of your face, you probably wouldn't acknowledge its existence. We understand abstract concepts, obviously far more effectively than you do.

Regarding how our system is more effective, we look for statistical signs of raider activity. We have compiled a partial list of statistics regarding actions which may constitute raider activity, and use those statistics in conjunction with our engine to cut out unnecessary activity from our dossiers.

Even though Im not in this sounding technical and using big words for coding isn't impressive, besides you will ruin NS with it if it actually happens, as raiding is a major part of the game, and if it can catch "any raider", that makes regional military's pointless, which can cause the potential downfall of large regions such as Nazi Europa

Tano wrote:Do you mind me asking how many people are working on this, because you keep using the plural forms (we, our, etc.)

And of this people, how many of them have any form of experience with R/D. If any do, how much?

See, the reason I ask this is because you said you have no experience with R/D. I hate to say it, but those RMB posts from earlier show it quite plainly. You can try to proclaim that experience doesn't matter but it really does. It is painfully important.

If it's only you working on the project, I have several concerns. Hell, I have concerns even with more than just you working on the project. I was not involved (or active) during Predator scandal but I have still observed the ramifications of it, and am leery of scripts and such.

Still, best of luck to you (and to anyone else working on it, if they indeed exist)

As before, NARIS keeps the identities of our operatives secret. You can check the original THIIS thread to see that this policy dates back to our original incarnation. We are a small group of roughly a half dozen people, although up until this point I have been the only programmer. The others mainly gather information and test the code. We also have Humanint operatives that give us information, but it isn't our main project.

We really don't know the specific details about raiding, but with time, we will be able to observe enough from a distance to know how to predict and stop it.

Atagait Denral wrote:

Belmaria wrote:Although this will make our project easier to reverse engineer, our code will be open source once we release it to the public. That should help dispel any rumours regarding our supposed illegitimacy.

If your code is open source, nobody will have to reverse engineer it. The code is right there to use.

I'm referring to the raiders' ability to use our code against us. It will be easier for them to access our algorithms and find ways to avoid detection if they are public. We'll probably only release the components which deal with the API to prove that it is, indeed, compliant, while leaving the sensitive data in a binary blob.

Belmaria wrote:

Tano wrote:Do you mind me asking how many people are working on this, because you keep using the plural forms (we, our, etc.)

And of this people, how many of them have any form of experience with R/D. If any do, how much?

See, the reason I ask this is because you said you have no experience with R/D. I hate to say it, but those RMB posts from earlier show it quite plainly. You can try to proclaim that experience doesn't matter but it really does. It is painfully important.

If it's only you working on the project, I have several concerns. Hell, I have concerns even with more than just you working on the project. I was not involved (or active) during Predator scandal but I have still observed the ramifications of it, and am leery of scripts and such.

Still, best of luck to you (and to anyone else working on it, if they indeed exist)

As before, NARIS keeps the identities of our operatives secret. You can check the original THIIS thread to see that this policy dates back to our original incarnation. We are a small group of roughly a half dozen people, although up until this point I have been the only programmer. The others mainly gather information and test the code. We also have Humanint operatives that give us information, but it isn't our main project.

We really don't know the specific details about raiding, but with time, we will be able to observe enough from a distance to know how to predict and stop it.

Meh I can do nothing but call bullshit at this point then. Perhaps time will tell a different tale but it seems to me that this project is not going to go far.

Like I said earlier tho, best of luck mate

Belmaria wrote:We really don't know the specific details about raiding, but with time, we will be able to observe enough from a distance to know how to predict and stop it.

I mean, you have a LOT of observing to do if that's the case, because you have referenced letting founders know that there is a threat in their region, which shows your lack of understanding of how R/D works. The presence of a founder pretty much ensures that the region won't be a target. If you don't know that basic piece of R/D, how are you going to understand enough about raider sleeper tactics to make a script to catch them, and not just create hundreds of false alarms?

Raionitu wrote:

Belmaria wrote:We really don't know the specific details about raiding, but with time, we will be able to observe enough from a distance to know how to predict and stop it.

I mean, you have a LOT of observing to do if that's the case, because you have referenced letting founders know that there is a threat in their region, which shows your lack of understanding of how R/D works. The presence of a founder pretty much ensures that the region won't be a target. If you don't know that basic piece of R/D, how are you going to understand enough about raider sleeper tactics to make a script to catch them, and not just create hundreds of false alarms?

This project is constantly evolving, and we won't release anything until we know that it works. That's what our tests are for.

If a program could be coded using non-answers, OP would have it completed by now.

Ridersyl wrote:If a program could be coded using non-answers, OP would have it completed by now.

Quite frankly, I don't think I'm obligated to reveal any information about this project to you while it's in its alpha stage. I don't understand why you think you're entitled to "answers" at such an early stage in development. Once we have a stable system, with accurate raider identification functionality, we will reveal more. In the meantime, this thread was intended to ask the community for their support, so as to move things along more quickly. We'll return our discussion to that topic.

Unfortunately, you haven't given people a lot to go on to justify why they should support your project. Following the Predator scandal, folks are understandably extremely gunshy about just blindly accepting the use of tools that make exceptional promises without having some hard data on how the tool is going to deliver. You keep using buzzwords and vague explanations that amount to a whole lot of non-answers. Until you've actually got some solid information to give, the public perception is basically along the lines of your project being vaporware that may or may not ever actually exist. You've given them nothing to support yet.

The lukewarm reception is only further compounded by your own admitted lack of understanding of how Gameplay works, perhaps best exemplified by the public relations disaster that is the situation over in The Mountains to the East. Raiders are endlessly creative, if there was some magic bullet to separate the raiders from the internal coups and cross-regional political conflict, I'm pretty sure that either we would have long since used it and saved the mod team untold amounts of headaches and hassle; or that someone else would have already found a way to do it in the decade-plus that the site's been running. It's certainly true that there are certain behavioral patterns that could be pointed at or used as risk factors to calculate the odds of somebody being a raider puppet, but that also assumes that 1) all raiders raid the same way and for the same reasons (they don't;) and 2 ) raiders won't change their tactics in response if your tool works as well as you claim it will (they most certainly will.)

Please understand that I don't mean this as an attack on your project, I'm trying to explain why you're getting the response from the community that you're getting. I've seen tons of projects on Nationstates over the years that made grandiose promises that failed to pan out, and I've seen successful ones as well. If you keep making bold claims and not backing them up with solid information as to the how and what, you're just not going to get the community support you're looking for.

Reploid Productions wrote:perhaps best exemplified by the public relations disaster that is the situation over in The Mountains to the East.

A quick update on this that I learned during the major update, which kind of summed up my point on the problem with not understanding R/D rather well, is that I logged onto my switcher House Tyrell, ready to defend. Now it seems that aside from the still-ongoing fiasco in TMTE that Belmaria is involved in, he also demonstrated why it's so important to understand R/D. Roughly three days ago, the Grey Wardens and allies deployed on a defense in TMTE against some non-update raiders (who later turned out to be one guy multiing). I hadn't logged onto my switcher since then, and even then I generally don't check my switcher's telegrams. So, when on a whim I checked my TGs, you can imagine my surprise when I see a telegram from Belmaria dated to the night of our defense there calling me an invader, telling me he's spotted me, and saying he'd report me to the natives. I should note that I fly a rather distinctive Grey Warden flag on all my nations, was crossed with a fair bit of other Wardens flying Warden flags, and and that The Grey Wardens with our regular Gameplay updates and consistent update presense are arguably the most high profile defender group at this point in time.

This all being taken into account, I was rather shocked to see this telegram, especially given Belmaria's repeated insistence he understood R/D and therefore one would assume he could tell which jump points and flags are associated with defenders. What faith I still harbored in this project more or less has disappeared with this, particularly given the OP's dismissive remarks to many comments about both their R/D experience as well as the rest of the raised concerns.

Tim-Opolis wrote:

Reploid Productions wrote:perhaps best exemplified by the public relations disaster that is the situation over in The Mountains to the East.

A quick update on this that I learned during the major update, which kind of summed up my point on the problem with not understanding R/D rather well, is that I logged onto my switcher House Tyrell, ready to defend. Now it seems that aside from the still-ongoing fiasco in TMTE that Belmaria is involved in, he also demonstrated why it's so important to understand R/D. Roughly three days ago, the Grey Wardens and allies deployed on a defense in TMTE against some non-update raiders (who later turned out to be one guy multiing). I hadn't logged onto my switcher since then, and even then I generally don't check my switcher's telegrams. So, when on a whim I checked my TGs, you can imagine my surprise when I see a telegram from Belmaria dated to the night of our defense there calling me an invader, telling me he's spotted me, and saying he'd report me to the natives. I should note that I fly a rather distinctive Grey Warden flag on all my nations, was crossed with a fair bit of other Wardens flying Warden flags, and and that The Grey Wardens with our regular Gameplay updates and consistent update presense are arguably the most high profile defender group at this point in time.

This all being taken into account, I was rather shocked to see this telegram, especially given Belmaria's repeated insistence he understood R/D and therefore one would assume he could tell which jump points and flags are associated with defenders. What faith I still harbored in this project more or less has disappeared with this, particularly given the OP's dismissive remarks to many comments about both their R/D experience as well as the rest of the raised concerns.

Not to mention the fact that he barged into the region and set himself up as the delegate, acting as if he is a native. I see an eerie similarity to my own occupation's wfe in there as well ("All residents that join the WA are required to endorse the WA delegate, The Republic of Chappleberg.") What he is doing pretty much breaks all the rules of the defender code (which is admittedly something that I made up, but I'm sure there is a thing like it).

We Are Not the NSA wrote:

Tim-Opolis wrote:A quick update on this that I learned during the major update, which kind of summed up my point on the problem with not understanding R/D rather well, is that I logged onto my switcher House Tyrell, ready to defend. Now it seems that aside from the still-ongoing fiasco in TMTE that Belmaria is involved in, he also demonstrated why it's so important to understand R/D. Roughly three days ago, the Grey Wardens and allies deployed on a defense in TMTE against some non-update raiders (who later turned out to be one guy multiing). I hadn't logged onto my switcher since then, and even then I generally don't check my switcher's telegrams. So, when on a whim I checked my TGs, you can imagine my surprise when I see a telegram from Belmaria dated to the night of our defense there calling me an invader, telling me he's spotted me, and saying he'd report me to the natives. I should note that I fly a rather distinctive Grey Warden flag on all my nations, was crossed with a fair bit of other Wardens flying Warden flags, and and that The Grey Wardens with our regular Gameplay updates and consistent update presense are arguably the most high profile defender group at this point in time.

This all being taken into account, I was rather shocked to see this telegram, especially given Belmaria's repeated insistence he understood R/D and therefore one would assume he could tell which jump points and flags are associated with defenders. What faith I still harbored in this project more or less has disappeared with this, particularly given the OP's dismissive remarks to many comments about both their R/D experience as well as the rest of the raised concerns.

Not to mention the fact that he barged into the region and set himself up as the delegate, acting as if he is a native. I see an eerie similarity to my own occupation's wfe in there as well ("All residents that join the WA are required to endorse the WA delegate, The Republic of Chappleberg.") What he is doing pretty much breaks all the rules of the defender code (which is admittedly something that I made up, but I'm sure there is a thing like it).

We're setting up a provisional government for stability.

As for the misidentification issue, I will repeat what I have already stated millions of times: It's an alpha. It's not finished yet.

And I'll state what I've already stated multiple times, build some basic R/D knowledge instead of continuing to deflect by basically telling us you don't actually have a working script.
Hell, it takes a 2 minute glance through the GP forum to learn who the main defender and invader groups are, what their flags are, and what their jump point are.

Also I'd be really curious to hear your thoughts on Reppy's post.

As for TMTE, you're not a native, and you're certainly in no standing to be establishing provisional governments there and such. What you're doing is establishing a non-native regime and I imagine you'll be seeing us soon.

Tim-Opolis wrote:And I'll state what I've already stated multiple times, build some basic R/D knowledge instead of continuing to deflect by basically telling us you don't actually have a working script.
Hell, it takes a 2 minute glance through the GP forum to learn who the main defender and invader groups are, what their flags are, and what their jump point are.

Also I'd be really curious to hear your thoughts on Reppy's post.

As for TMTE, you're not a native, and you're certainly in no standing to be establishing provisional governments there and such. What you're doing is establishing a non-native regime and I imagine you'll be seeing us soon.

Oh for fuck's sake. I was told not to get into gameplay again. I should have listened. You people can continue to use your manual detection systems if you don't want to be brought into the 21st century.

Your collective hatred and distrust of technology makes me sick.

Belmaria wrote:

Tim-Opolis wrote:And I'll state what I've already stated multiple times, build some basic R/D knowledge instead of continuing to deflect by basically telling us you don't actually have a working script.
Hell, it takes a 2 minute glance through the GP forum to learn who the main defender and invader groups are, what their flags are, and what their jump point are.

Also I'd be really curious to hear your thoughts on Reppy's post.

As for TMTE, you're not a native, and you're certainly in no standing to be establishing provisional governments there and such. What you're doing is establishing a non-native regime and I imagine you'll be seeing us soon.

Oh for fuck's sake. I was told not to get into gameplay again. I should have listened. You people can continue to use your manual detection systems if you don't want to be brought into the 21st century.

Your collective hatred and distrust of technology makes me sick.

lol it's not completely hatred and distrust of technology. It's hatred and distrust of people making bullshit grandiose claims without backing it up and then treating naysayers like they're uncultured heathens who couldn't possibly understand the vast complexities at work.

Oh gee. Would you look at that? You seem to fit that quite well!

Actions speak louder than all the technical-sounding bullshit in the world. So far you've spewed a lot of nothing on the forums while you go and continuously fuck up. You'll forgive us for not trusting someone in the GP forums who doesn't know shit about GP.

Edit: Also, nice job on deflecting this question:

Also I'd be really curious to hear your thoughts on Reppy's post.

I too am curious.

Belmaria wrote:Oh for fuck's sake. I was told not to get into gameplay again. I should have listened. You people can continue to use your manual detection systems if you don't want to be brought into the 21st century don't want to trust unproven and unsubstantiated tools.

Your collective hatred and distrust of technology skepticism based on the complete lack of evidence available makes me sick.

Fixed that for you.

The problem is not a hatred or distrust of technology, it's a perfectly reasonable skepticism based on the completely non-existent information available about your tool, how it will work, and what it will actually accomplish. This skepticism has only been further compounded by your repeatedly proven lack of knowledge about the area of the game you are making this tool for, and only further exacerbated by your tone and constant talking-down to and dismissal of the very same players who could help you get the information you need to make this tool actually function.

If your tool is still in such an early alpha stage that you cannot give people the information they are asking for regarding how it will work, perhaps you should have held off on announcing it to the public until it was far enough along to provide that information. Right now, all you're doing is repeatedly proving in the minds of your target userbase that you don't know what you're talking about, giving them little reason to have any faith in your ability to carry out this project. You're also alienating them by talking down to them for daring to ask very reasonable questions about how you plan to fulfill these very grandiose promises that you've made about this tool.

This is basic Marketing 101 stuff right here, if you want to "sell" your product, you need to have some proof as to why they need it, why it's better than whatever they currently have; and the last thing you want to do is alienate the very people you're pitching your product to by talking down to them for daring to ask for further information about the product. As an analogy, if I were looking to buy a new car and the salesman pitches some revolutionary new feature to me, I'm going to be asking what that feature does, why do I need to have it, and basic info about how it actually works. If the salesman refuses to answer these questions and just keeps insisting it's awesome, I wouldn't understand the details, I shouldn't be questioning it and I should totally get this new feature anyway... that salesman isn't going to be making that sale with me.